1
00:00:27,533 --> 00:00:31,533
想念守住在蔚蓝色的深海里

2
00:00:31,566 --> 00:00:33,533
多少次的吉祥一生

3
00:00:33,700 --> 00:00:39,000
买了一个新的公用的弹幕美化包但是

4
00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:44,200
呃因为我有点笨哈哈还没倒进去

5
00:00:44,466 --> 00:00:45,266
嗯

6
00:00:45,966 --> 00:00:47,366
我有点笨

7
00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,500
看我这个一位你们喜欢吗

8
00:00:54,500 --> 00:00:59,133
也许最后只完成我们的使命

9
00:01:01,733 --> 00:01:05,766
人间的小巷霓虹灯笼罩满地

10
00:01:05,900 --> 00:01:08,733
充满欢声笑语热闹不停

11
00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,133
十年兽的出现好像打破喜庆

12
00:01:13,300 --> 00:01:17,100
他们被鞭炮噼里啪啦赶出村落去

13
00:01:17,266 --> 00:01:18,333
呜呼

14
00:01:18,966 --> 00:01:21,333
和你的颜色不匹配

15
00:01:21,333 --> 00:01:24,266
有红色大棉袄就更喜庆了

16
00:01:24,466 --> 00:01:28,533
其实我还有其他的能调整的部分啊

17
00:01:28,533 --> 00:01:33,533
这个UI本来应该可以呃

18
00:01:34,166 --> 00:01:36,366
嗯可以动的

19
00:01:37,100 --> 00:01:39,900
你们有没有发现一件事啊大伙

20
00:01:39,900 --> 00:01:42,933
就是就是我现在不会被弹幕挡住了

21
00:01:42,933 --> 00:01:44,499
你们发现了吗

22
00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:49,200
我今天花了20分钟把这个功能给修好

23
00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:49,500
了

24
00:01:49,500 --> 00:01:53,000
以后我们我们不会再被弹幕挡住了

25
00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:53,800
嗯

26
00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:56,100
晚上好

27
00:02:00,533 --> 00:02:01,366
开心吗

28
00:02:03,166 --> 00:02:05,866
我今天回家可以开抽了烟

29
00:02:05,866 --> 00:02:08,399
可是烟没有什么能抽的东西

30
00:02:08,866 --> 00:02:11,366
哈哈哈我的眼泪都掉下来了

31
00:02:11,366 --> 00:02:13,933
眼神花了20分钟完全告诉我

32
00:02:13,933 --> 00:02:17,333
下午我花了20分钟换了个新的UI

33
00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:20,200
欢迎赵老爷

34
00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:24,566
晚上好嗯欢迎大家爷们一下就来

35
00:02:25,566 --> 00:02:29,066
啊我们那个2289工作室

36
00:02:29,166 --> 00:02:32,966
米顺烟在这里给你拜年啦

37
00:02:33,133 --> 00:02:35,399
哈哈哈我每天都

38
00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:38,533
这是淹死的一小步

39
00:02:38,533 --> 00:02:41,766
也是2289不再笨蛋的一大步哼

40
00:02:44,300 --> 00:02:45,533
但是这个

41
00:02:45,533 --> 00:02:47,533
呃相对的副作用就是

42
00:02:47,533 --> 00:02:49,699
我在转转尾巴的时候会有

43
00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:50,733
绿色的苍蝇

44
00:02:50,733 --> 00:02:52,199
哇谢谢这玩意的

45
00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:57,133
粉玫瑰粉玫瑰粉玫瑰粉玫瑰粉玫瑰

46
00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:01,566
喊我开乱斗呀

47
00:03:02,133 --> 00:03:04,266
喊我开乱斗蹭点呀

48
00:03:04,266 --> 00:03:05,866
谢谢赵老爷的智慧之书

49
00:03:05,866 --> 00:03:07,499
非常感谢阿里嘎赵

50
00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,366
所有人都喊我开乱斗蹭点加油

51
00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:13,933
一点都不智

52
00:03:13,933 --> 00:03:15,599
慧那怪你

53
00:03:16,733 --> 00:03:20,799
你开了五朵花说明你你是笨蛋

54
00:03:21,666 --> 00:03:23,133
一点都不智慧

55
00:03:24,200 --> 00:03:26,333
一一一晚上好

56
00:03:29,166 --> 00:03:30,566
好像这样

57
00:03:31,333 --> 00:03:33,699
抠图抠下来稍微有点

58
00:03:34,400 --> 00:03:36,566
有点糊哎哦

59
00:03:37,933 --> 00:03:39,666
逆天啊是种啊

60
00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:44,733
是的吗

61
00:03:45,900 --> 00:03:46,700
哈

62
00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:48,300
哈哈

63
00:03:51,100 --> 00:03:54,800
激动来了一次1234 卧槽

64
00:03:56,266 --> 00:03:57,333
刚刚啥呀

65
00:03:57,333 --> 00:03:58,666
啊怎么了

66
00:03:58,900 --> 00:04:00,166
没东西啊

67
00:04:00,866 --> 00:04:03,266
抽抽了因为我在晃

68
00:04:03,266 --> 00:04:04,566
我在来回晃

69
00:04:21,900 --> 00:04:24,766
大红棉袄呢还没扣出来呢

70
00:04:24,866 --> 00:04:28,766
我在找人帮我帮我找那个文件

71
00:04:28,933 --> 00:04:30,733
找那个弹幕的文件

72
00:04:30,733 --> 00:04:32,199
也买了一个非常非常

73
00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,600
喜庆的新的弹幕条

74
00:04:34,900 --> 00:04:38,900
但是我没找到在哪哈哈哈

75
00:04:39,366 --> 00:04:41,699
啊我的钱都白花了

76
00:04:41,700 --> 00:04:44,933
我花了动态UI一大套的钱之后

77
00:04:44,933 --> 00:04:46,966
用上了一张静态的

78
00:04:47,533 --> 00:04:50,133
这个坑爹冰雪响又来了

79
00:04:51,266 --> 00:04:52,766
要不然我直接挂一那

80
00:04:52,766 --> 00:04:54,866
什么码都比那冰雪响强

81
00:04:54,866 --> 00:04:56,133
别了冰雪响

82
00:04:56,133 --> 00:04:58,566
大伙都别抽那个烟子

83
00:04:58,566 --> 00:05:01,099
不抽抽就像老司机没有

84
00:05:02,866 --> 00:05:03,899
大小的话

85
00:05:03,900 --> 00:05:07,333
是这个摄像头忽然脱捕捉就会这样的

86
00:05:07,333 --> 00:05:08,133
家人们

87
00:05:09,466 --> 00:05:11,899
确实纸钱不够我理解一下

88
00:05:24,566 --> 00:05:28,099
找那个CSS代码死活都找不到

89
00:05:28,100 --> 00:05:32,300
就不知道他藏到什么地方去了嗯

90
00:05:37,966 --> 00:05:39,699
而且我也看不懂代码

91
00:05:39,700 --> 00:05:42,066
你们你们有人能看得懂吗

92
00:05:42,066 --> 00:05:45,599
就比较简单的那种家人们

93
00:05:47,333 --> 00:05:50,866
主播自己讲话的样子太可怜了

94
00:05:50,866 --> 00:05:53,733
内幕没办法呀凉就是凉

95
00:05:54,266 --> 00:05:56,499
今天有好几个大v过生日呢

96
00:05:56,500 --> 00:05:57,766
你们看到了吗

97
00:05:57,766 --> 00:05:59,966
他们那边人声鼎沸

98
00:06:00,066 --> 00:06:02,366
人声人海热闹无比

99
00:06:02,366 --> 00:06:05,533
然后那个拥有着非凡的气氛啊

100
00:06:05,533 --> 00:06:07,933
反观主播这边的这个

101
00:06:07,933 --> 00:06:11,299
安静的像一个停着主播的房间一样

102
00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,333
这不过年吃饺子吗

103
00:06:15,866 --> 00:06:19,099
康康真正的单腿人是这样的

104
00:06:19,566 --> 00:06:21,299
有你们就够了

105
00:06:21,900 --> 00:06:23,400
没关系的

106
00:06:25,566 --> 00:06:27,666
什么代码没有念

107
00:06:28,266 --> 00:06:31,499
嗯就是这个压缩包然后我得找

108
00:06:31,500 --> 00:06:35,133
到往那个弹幕机里面打的那个部分

109
00:06:38,100 --> 00:06:40,266
羡慕有你们就够了

110
00:06:40,266 --> 00:06:41,733
这不挺好的吗

111
00:06:42,133 --> 00:06:43,166
找不到

112
00:06:43,933 --> 00:06:45,166
坏了

113
00:06:53,966 --> 00:06:54,766
来的大雨

114
00:06:54,766 --> 00:06:55,666
不是九九天

115
00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,366
今天今天那个呃呃

116
00:06:58,500 --> 00:07:01,466
白沈瑶过生日我也去看了

117
00:07:01,900 --> 00:07:04,133
我一开始就挺喜欢抱抱着

118
00:07:04,133 --> 00:07:06,866
从他那个模型公布到后面

119
00:07:06,866 --> 00:07:08,599
我一直都很喜欢抱抱

120
00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:10,700
标记切割

121
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,966
你都跟我切割了我还有观众吗

122
00:07:19,566 --> 00:07:22,333
大伙在跟我切歌就真没有观众了

123
00:07:30,533 --> 00:07:33,199
谢谢共饮19的小花花房

124
00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:35,933
感谢阿力哥到谢谢19

125
00:07:36,700 --> 00:07:39,466
果然那个什么是会互相吸引人

126
00:07:40,000 --> 00:07:41,800
你想说的绝对是笨蛋

127
00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:43,533
是会相互吸引的吧

128
00:07:43,700 --> 00:07:45,600
这一身看起来就很暖和

129
00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:47,866
是吗是吗我还有帽帽

130
00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:52,666
啊对猫咪的新的那个

131
00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:56,300
新的新的我还没有看

132
00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:57,900
让我看一下啊

133
00:07:58,166 --> 00:07:59,599
嗯从

134
00:08:00,766 --> 00:08:02,199
从于

135
00:08:03,566 --> 00:08:06,599
他在给我做的最新一版的模型

136
00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:08,666
我还没有接过来呢

137
00:08:10,966 --> 00:08:13,499
天直播的时候可能会

138
00:08:13,666 --> 00:08:16,533
调试一下模型之类的

139
00:08:18,866 --> 00:08:20,166
大家别说我白了

140
00:08:20,166 --> 00:08:22,066
我本来都想播工作音了

141
00:08:22,066 --> 00:08:25,166
今天会播很长很长的时间

142
00:08:29,533 --> 00:08:32,399
然后我后面会学习

143
00:08:34,500 --> 00:08:36,466
我2月1号就要考试了

144
00:08:36,466 --> 00:08:38,733
我再不学习人都要下了

145
00:08:38,766 --> 00:08:40,799
好久没有看到黑猫了

146
00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:41,600
对呀

147
00:08:42,500 --> 00:08:46,900
主播什么时候也力点出来给涨涨人气

148
00:08:51,500 --> 00:08:52,800
别播那么久了

149
00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:54,200
为什么呀

150
00:08:54,966 --> 00:08:57,066
睡在直播间太冷了

151
00:08:57,066 --> 00:08:58,866
因为我还冷呀

152
00:08:59,733 --> 00:09:02,199
直播间有我穿的这么暖和的一只猫

153
00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,466
还冷谢谢

154
00:09:05,933 --> 00:09:08,133
这是这个字念

155
00:09:08,366 --> 00:09:13,199
念那个称还是念参来着谢谢

156
00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:16,733
打call和两个牛蛙

157
00:09:16,733 --> 00:09:17,333
牛外放

158
00:09:17,333 --> 00:09:21,299
感谢Aligat欢迎复合型北极星好久不见

159
00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,666
对我也觉得我应该直播学个习

160
00:09:24,666 --> 00:09:27,133
然后我也准备好了学习的UI

161
00:09:27,866 --> 00:09:30,133
到时候可以跟你们一起看PPT

162
00:09:30,166 --> 00:09:30,933
你有衣服

163
00:09:30,933 --> 00:09:31,933
直播间里的音

164
00:09:31,933 --> 00:09:33,599
乐人没有衣服穿呀

165
00:09:42,700 --> 00:09:45,600
我把我的衣服给你了你收到了吗

166
00:09:46,500 --> 00:09:47,700
你收到了吗

167
00:09:47,700 --> 00:09:50,133
帽子也给你你收到了吗

168
00:09:50,266 --> 00:09:53,399
你穿的暖也架不住兄弟穿短袖

169
00:09:53,466 --> 00:09:55,199
那你穿的太少了

170
00:09:57,800 --> 00:09:59,966
哥们躺床上来你也脱掉

171
00:09:59,966 --> 00:10:01,166
大家坦诚相见

172
00:10:01,166 --> 00:10:02,599
这还不够多呀

173
00:10:02,866 --> 00:10:03,999
那我立个flag

174
00:10:04,266 --> 00:10:05,733
我能立成什么样

175
00:10:05,733 --> 00:10:09,733
也就是我要是那个呃

176
00:10:12,166 --> 00:10:13,866
一过年就剩几天了

177
00:10:13,866 --> 00:10:15,266
没法年前了

178
00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:20,200
情人节之前能摆件的话

179
00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,533
情人节之前换一套新衣服吧

180
00:10:22,533 --> 00:10:24,766
七夕那套已经准备好了

181
00:10:29,900 --> 00:10:32,100
组队踹毛衣线

182
00:10:32,766 --> 00:10:34,066
我一条板

183
00:10:34,100 --> 00:10:36,533
米呀米呀毛衣踹开了线

184
00:10:39,366 --> 00:10:41,999
其实你们你们还是能看到在这个

185
00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:43,466
毛衣上面的

186
00:10:43,566 --> 00:10:47,199
我在转身的时候那个胸部的起伏吧

187
00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:49,100
可以看到一点的吧

188
00:10:49,100 --> 00:10:50,400
你们能看到那个

189
00:10:50,500 --> 00:10:53,133
胸部的透视不断的在改变的

190
00:10:53,666 --> 00:10:56,299
应该还会穿以前的衣服吗

191
00:10:56,300 --> 00:10:57,166
会呀

192
00:10:58,300 --> 00:11:02,333
因为现在过年了吗然后先穿点新衣服

193
00:11:03,766 --> 00:11:05,366
我一揪把你

194
00:11:06,933 --> 00:11:08,266
小布娃娃

195
00:11:08,700 --> 00:11:11,366
谢谢呃赵老爷的10个

196
00:11:11,366 --> 00:11:13,899
这个好也非常感谢啊厉害的

197
00:11:15,500 --> 00:11:17,200
只要送个这个好哎

198
00:11:17,266 --> 00:11:19,499
为了欢乐你就给我来1,000

199
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:20,666
起伏是什么

200
00:11:20,666 --> 00:11:23,266
就是在这里啊在这里啊

201
00:11:23,333 --> 00:11:24,999
其实我也想给你们录一个

202
00:11:25,000 --> 00:11:26,966
什么那个那个呃

203
00:11:27,266 --> 00:11:29,499
米呀米啊劝导之类的

204
00:11:30,900 --> 00:11:32,200
啊这个

205
00:11:32,700 --> 00:11:35,900
不开心的时候就听听米呀米呀的劝导

206
00:11:35,900 --> 00:11:37,600
啊什么什么的

207
00:11:40,866 --> 00:11:42,566
对a要不起

208
00:11:45,266 --> 00:11:49,199
呃呃呃这什么不要说什么哎呀这个

209
00:11:50,266 --> 00:11:51,999
主播骗大伙可以不

210
00:11:53,466 --> 00:11:58,099
我不想穿红背里面啊啊谢谢

211
00:11:58,733 --> 00:12:00,766
晨气的十个小花花

212
00:12:00,766 --> 00:12:00,999
反

213
00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:04,100
感谢啊这个烟烟劝雪主播一次晕掉了

214
00:12:04,133 --> 00:12:07,199
我又不会冲晕过去谁像你们啊

215
00:12:07,333 --> 00:12:08,499
真有起风吗

216
00:12:08,500 --> 00:12:10,000
是真的是真的

217
00:12:11,133 --> 00:12:14,899
百剑重启计划咪呀咪呀百剑计划

218
00:12:14,933 --> 00:12:16,133
大胆点我们要写千

219
00:12:16,133 --> 00:12:18,866
剑计划要要更厉害一点

220
00:12:19,100 --> 00:12:20,400
哎我怎么觉得我

221
00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:22,966
我这个紫色跟背景的红色有点

222
00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:23,566
格格不入

223
00:12:23,566 --> 00:12:25,133
有点刺眼睛

224
00:12:27,066 --> 00:12:30,299
我不想穿棉袄穿棉袄太土了

225
00:12:30,300 --> 00:12:32,733
当然是要过生日的当天啊

226
00:12:32,733 --> 00:12:36,099
不对过年的当天才能穿棉袄

227
00:12:39,566 --> 00:12:41,866
倩倩确实哥哥不对呀

228
00:12:45,066 --> 00:12:47,133
颜色确实不是很搭配

229
00:12:47,333 --> 00:12:50,733
晚上好一语红尘谁又带明星了

230
00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:52,733
什么时候带明星了

231
00:12:52,733 --> 00:12:55,966
主播都已经凉凉哇哇的凉的不行了

232
00:12:55,966 --> 00:12:57,299
还带明星了

233
00:12:58,900 --> 00:13:01,666
因为这个有太多个版本了

234
00:13:01,666 --> 00:13:05,399
所以说我我这个复制一下

235
00:13:08,366 --> 00:13:09,666
我的这个模型

236
00:13:09,666 --> 00:13:13,933
每一个版本的名字分别叫Miamia冬装

237
00:13:13,933 --> 00:13:16,099
Miamia冬装0

238
00:13:16,133 --> 00:13:17,899
Miamia冬装一

239
00:13:18,066 --> 00:13:20,199
米亚米亚冬装最终版

240
00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:21,700
米亚米亚冬装

241
00:13:21,700 --> 00:13:24,133
一定一定是最后一版了吧

242
00:13:24,966 --> 00:13:26,966
这已经是我第五版了

243
00:13:26,966 --> 00:13:30,333
两个舰长都是我们现在舰长的小号

244
00:13:30,333 --> 00:13:32,933
主播一次是有点费拉不堪了

245
00:13:33,066 --> 00:13:36,133
来点黑猫吧主播现场给自己染头发

246
00:13:36,133 --> 00:13:39,899
等一下没有西装没有西装

247
00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,300
left to the models

248
00:13:47,100 --> 00:13:50,300
新建文件夹

249
00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:53,900
we are don't

250
00:13:54,900 --> 00:13:59,600
最最最最后一把了哈哈

251
00:14:04,300 --> 00:14:05,766
妈妈两眼一黑

252
00:14:05,766 --> 00:14:06,366
没有啊

253
00:14:06,366 --> 00:14:10,533
他经常我们经常特别友善的讨论一些

254
00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:11,533
呃

255
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:15,566
合理的对于模型的制作的探讨方式

256
00:14:15,566 --> 00:14:16,299
啊啊

257
00:14:16,300 --> 00:14:20,200
我们都是很友善的一直一直都很好念

258
00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:26,933
啊这不是Miamia冬装0了

259
00:14:26,933 --> 00:14:28,699
这是Miamia冬装一了

260
00:14:28,700 --> 00:14:29,733
妈妈真棒

261
00:14:31,466 --> 00:14:32,299
让我看一下

262
00:14:32,300 --> 00:14:34,800
能不能直接看到那个冬装衣

263
00:14:35,366 --> 00:14:36,333
看不到

264
00:14:37,100 --> 00:14:38,933
你们要想现在让我看

265
00:14:38,933 --> 00:14:40,499
看到那个冬装衣的话

266
00:14:40,500 --> 00:14:43,266
可能要要那个稍等一下

267
00:14:43,966 --> 00:14:46,966
终极真的真的真的是最后一把

268
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,933
对呀顶点没掉说明上个月今天没见着

269
00:14:52,266 --> 00:14:55,999
这个时候在飞机上了啊对在飞机上了

270
00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:59,466
嗯为什么我的眼角常含汗水

271
00:15:00,566 --> 00:15:03,366
因为我感到无语对你们感到无语

272
00:15:03,366 --> 00:15:04,599
穿太少了

273
00:15:07,466 --> 00:15:09,733
我摊牌了我就是东北人

274
00:15:09,733 --> 00:15:12,133
家人们我想我想我

275
00:15:12,133 --> 00:15:15,599
我想看一下是不是需要重新启动一下

276
00:15:17,333 --> 00:15:19,733
怎么会好久不见我天天在直播间

277
00:15:19,733 --> 00:15:20,799
有没有种可能性

278
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:22,800
他不是天天在直播间呀

279
00:15:23,766 --> 00:15:26,299
你天天在但他不是天天在

280
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:43,100
看鸳鸯人太久了没感觉了是吧

281
00:15:43,300 --> 00:15:44,100
嗯

282
00:15:45,133 --> 00:15:47,599
不是呀是我得重启一下

283
00:15:47,766 --> 00:15:50,866
他这个不重启加载不出来

284
00:15:52,066 --> 00:15:55,066
好烦呐怎么会这样呢

285
00:16:03,733 --> 00:16:07,266
天是腊月25号

286
00:16:11,266 --> 00:16:12,933
正常来说

287
00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:15,600
我应该是

288
00:16:18,866 --> 00:16:20,466
啊我我正常来说

289
00:16:20,466 --> 00:16:22,733
今天如果是我在国内的话

290
00:16:22,733 --> 00:16:25,699
是我家里人会给我过生日的日子

291
00:16:25,866 --> 00:16:26,933
哎我发现

292
00:16:33,133 --> 00:16:34,966
今天上播之前

293
00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:38,533
跟猫妈妈打了半个小时的电话

294
00:16:39,133 --> 00:16:42,799
他还是很担心我就觉得

295
00:16:43,566 --> 00:16:46,099
我在这边一切都不好

296
00:16:47,466 --> 00:16:50,533
睡着也不好吃饭也不香

297
00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,133
直播直播做不好学习学习学不好

298
00:16:54,933 --> 00:16:55,699
又要生日会

299
00:16:55,700 --> 00:16:56,866
没生日会呀

300
00:16:56,866 --> 00:16:57,733
我是今天

301
00:16:57,733 --> 00:17:01,333
本来想跟你们讨论一下过年的习俗的

302
00:17:01,500 --> 00:17:03,200
结果看到艳丽啊

303
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,866
腊月二十五的习俗是什么来着

304
00:17:07,666 --> 00:17:09,133
已经没有米了

305
00:17:10,533 --> 00:17:13,299
我跟你们说了过年的习俗了

306
00:17:19,533 --> 00:17:21,366
大伙也是家人

307
00:17:22,566 --> 00:17:26,533
我就跟他说一切放心一切都没关系

308
00:17:27,266 --> 00:17:30,266
平静了说的是天天过生日是吧

309
00:17:30,700 --> 00:17:32,966
哈哈哈那没办法呀

310
00:17:32,966 --> 00:17:36,933
最近心里想的都没有办法保持那个

311
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,800
当v的那个特别特别虚拟的那个感觉

312
00:17:40,866 --> 00:17:43,133
烟烟现在还能收到压岁钱吗

313
00:17:43,133 --> 00:17:44,899
可以可以

314
00:17:45,933 --> 00:17:49,699
因为我还是小孩子呢如果有出国之前

315
00:17:50,100 --> 00:17:53,966
那个家里人有提前给了我压岁钱的

316
00:17:53,966 --> 00:17:55,499
虽然我都没有拿

317
00:17:55,500 --> 00:17:56,533
因为我觉得

318
00:17:56,666 --> 00:17:59,099
我已经有收入了是大人了

319
00:17:59,100 --> 00:18:01,066
但是他们不那么感觉

320
00:18:01,333 --> 00:18:04,766
还是一个人再给我几千

321
00:18:04,900 --> 00:18:07,600
最后给妈妈了我也没有要

322
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:09,866
谢谢小石子老师的爱了爱了

323
00:18:09,866 --> 00:18:12,533
奥利给到你的笑容

324
00:18:13,300 --> 00:18:15,966
穿过了银河的尽头

325
00:18:15,966 --> 00:18:19,133
带着我的温柔帮我个心吧

326
00:18:19,533 --> 00:18:22,599
好呀谢谢无敌郑老爷的小心心

327
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:23,666
阿力来到

328
00:18:23,700 --> 00:18:24,900
谢谢谢谢

329
00:18:25,933 --> 00:18:27,166
老东西装嫩

330
00:18:27,266 --> 00:18:29,066
什么谁装嫩啊

331
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,100
一个人几千啊

332
00:18:31,100 --> 00:18:33,100
我是北方人

333
00:18:33,266 --> 00:18:35,866
我是那个东北那边的

334
00:18:35,866 --> 00:18:40,466
然后我们家里面比较亲近的那个

335
00:18:41,366 --> 00:18:43,099
听说来往

336
00:18:43,100 --> 00:18:46,966
过年的给小妹的红包都是四位数的

337
00:18:46,966 --> 00:18:49,699
而且因为我要出国吗这次再

338
00:18:50,166 --> 00:18:53,533
出去就不知道什么时候能回来了

339
00:18:54,666 --> 00:18:55,533
根本不是

340
00:18:55,533 --> 00:18:58,499
而且还有一些这个其他的

341
00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,066
原因在里面了

342
00:19:00,066 --> 00:19:01,899
就出国的时候

343
00:19:03,333 --> 00:19:06,399
还有一些人情往来方面的问题

344
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,766
就比如说以前那个我妈妈帮了

345
00:19:09,933 --> 00:19:11,566
我家一个亲戚的忙

346
00:19:11,566 --> 00:19:13,766
然后人家就以这种名义

347
00:19:15,166 --> 00:19:17,166
来给我发压岁钱

348
00:19:17,166 --> 00:19:19,166
其实就是人情往来了

349
00:19:19,166 --> 00:19:21,466
每年这个钱都特别多

350
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,466
就像是两边在刷流水一样

351
00:19:24,466 --> 00:19:26,733
你给我刷500我给你刷500

352
00:19:26,733 --> 00:19:27,566
最后除了

353
00:19:27,700 --> 00:19:31,733
支付宝的那个来往看起来比较多之外

354
00:19:31,766 --> 00:19:33,566
没有什么其他的作用

355
00:19:33,566 --> 00:19:34,999
先干了打他

356
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,366
不许打我

357
00:19:36,533 --> 00:19:39,166
北方的栏杆舔起来是甜的吗

358
00:19:39,166 --> 00:19:42,166
我教你怎么我教你怎么舔栏杆

359
00:19:42,466 --> 00:19:45,899
你先这样你先喝一口温水含在嘴里面

360
00:19:45,966 --> 00:19:49,499
然后你隔着这个水去舔那个铁栏杆

361
00:19:49,533 --> 00:19:53,099
你就会发现确实是甜的没有人在骗你

362
00:19:53,100 --> 00:19:54,200
真的是甜的

363
00:19:57,166 --> 00:19:57,499
当然

364
00:19:57,500 --> 00:20:00,700
你不要直接把把那个口水咽的特别干

365
00:20:00,700 --> 00:20:02,300
然后你再再去舔

366
00:20:02,300 --> 00:20:04,500
这样的话肯定会粘在上面的

367
00:20:04,500 --> 00:20:05,766
会出问题

368
00:20:07,100 --> 00:20:08,866
直播又不喊哥们是吧

369
00:20:08,866 --> 00:20:10,866
啊我没艾特全体吗

370
00:20:10,933 --> 00:20:12,699
大家帮我艾特一下吧

371
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:14,400
对不起呀

372
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,566
嗯东北那边怎么说话没有碴子味

373
00:20:17,566 --> 00:20:19,166
咋说话这是

374
00:20:20,466 --> 00:20:23,666
没有东北地火的这个观众

375
00:20:29,066 --> 00:20:30,666
不知道什么时候能回来

376
00:20:30,666 --> 00:20:33,099
对啊本来就不知道啥时候能回来吗

377
00:20:33,100 --> 00:20:35,733
这边回去第一挺麻烦的

378
00:20:35,733 --> 00:20:37,866
第二我一个月也赚不回

379
00:20:37,866 --> 00:20:40,466
一张回国的机票就算了

380
00:20:40,966 --> 00:20:42,666
太贵了吗

381
00:20:43,300 --> 00:20:45,466
有这个钱我干点啥不好呀

382
00:20:45,466 --> 00:20:47,399
家人们对吧

383
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:48,266
主播有经验

384
00:20:48,266 --> 00:20:50,699
至少没有收拾在中间抽水

385
00:20:51,300 --> 00:20:52,900
对啊没有人在这边抽水

386
00:20:52,900 --> 00:20:54,566
护山流水而已

387
00:20:55,466 --> 00:20:56,766
什么两重天

388
00:20:56,766 --> 00:20:58,899
冰火两重天

389
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:01,000
哈哈哈

390
00:21:02,066 --> 00:21:02,866
呃

391
00:21:03,466 --> 00:21:05,699
你们小的时候没舔过吗

392
00:21:05,700 --> 00:21:09,300
不用温水找个人舌吻就好

393
00:21:10,333 --> 00:21:11,866
我这两眼一黑了

394
00:21:11,866 --> 00:21:14,166
你们不会有人就找人舌吻

395
00:21:14,166 --> 00:21:16,099
然后然后去舔舔盖

396
00:21:16,100 --> 00:21:17,333
舔栏杆的吧

397
00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,400
这跟你买了一瓶醋

398
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,166
然后去找邻居借饺子

399
00:21:21,166 --> 00:21:23,266
借螃蟹有什么差别啊

400
00:21:24,133 --> 00:21:27,533
你为了舔一下铁栏杆然后就去

401
00:21:28,500 --> 00:21:31,333
找个人接吻是吧

402
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:33,166
两眼一黑

403
00:21:35,166 --> 00:21:37,133
晚上好晚上好烟烟

404
00:21:37,133 --> 00:21:38,733
忍待亲我先来

405
00:21:38,733 --> 00:21:40,499
我不许你亲姐姐

406
00:21:41,300 --> 00:21:42,933
我不许你亲姐姐

407
00:21:42,933 --> 00:21:44,133
烟烟待亲

408
00:21:44,866 --> 00:21:46,566
晚上好谢谢同名

409
00:21:46,566 --> 00:21:47,566
欢迎小马的牛蛙

410
00:21:47,566 --> 00:21:49,866
牛蛙坊感谢阿里来到

411
00:21:53,300 --> 00:21:55,400
我是南方人不会被冻住

412
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,666
南方的铁栏杆不好舔

413
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,733
有一股铁锈像雪一样的味道

414
00:22:00,733 --> 00:22:03,099
北方的栏杆是甜的

415
00:22:07,566 --> 00:22:10,266
真的小气鬼凭什么

416
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,566
我会保护姐姐的

417
00:22:13,566 --> 00:22:15,599
我不会哈哈哈

418
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:19,166
让邪恶的坏人亲姐姐的哼

419
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:23,366
我以前吃绿色心情被冻过

420
00:22:24,733 --> 00:22:27,299
你为什么不吃红豆雪糕呀

421
00:22:27,300 --> 00:22:30,733
我觉得红豆雪糕比绿豆雪糕高了大概

422
00:22:30,933 --> 00:22:33,333
100个乔乐兹的那个水平

423
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,133
摸头摸耳朵

424
00:22:37,333 --> 00:22:38,133
好

425
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:42,466
舔什么舔

426
00:22:42,466 --> 00:22:44,733
铁栏杆你没有舔过吗

427
00:22:44,866 --> 00:22:47,266
吃完烟记得刷牙

428
00:22:53,100 --> 00:22:54,400
你可真会说话呀

429
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,066
小嘴巴臭是吧

430
00:22:56,366 --> 00:23:02,099
不知道有没有人上嘴唇被下嘴唇动过

431
00:23:02,933 --> 00:23:04,266
你是怎么做到的

432
00:23:04,266 --> 00:23:06,166
欢迎哈儿晚上好

433
00:23:07,266 --> 00:23:07,866
因为我这

434
00:23:07,866 --> 00:23:10,533
边没有红豆的麦嗯

435
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:21,500
我小的时候吃过一个红豆的雪糕

436
00:23:21,500 --> 00:23:22,966
名字叫做

437
00:23:32,366 --> 00:23:35,366
稍微偏硬一点的那种奶茶

438
00:23:35,366 --> 00:23:38,166
里面的蜜红豆就不是那种绵绵的

439
00:23:38,166 --> 00:23:40,266
是那种吃起来很有颗粒感的

440
00:23:40,266 --> 00:23:44,333
外面是甜而不腻的牛奶味雪糕

441
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:45,966
就恰恰好的那种

442
00:23:45,966 --> 00:23:49,366
既不吼嗓子也不会觉得过于寡淡无味

443
00:23:49,366 --> 00:23:52,466
也不像冰棒那样脆的难以入口

444
00:23:52,466 --> 00:23:54,899
也不像冰淇淋那样过分的绵软

445
00:23:54,900 --> 00:23:56,566
这一切都是恰到好处

446
00:23:56,566 --> 00:23:58,466
我小的时候一有零花钱

447
00:23:58,500 --> 00:24:01,000
到夏天就跑去那个小卖部

448
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:02,500
花一块钱买一根

449
00:24:02,700 --> 00:24:04,166
相思蜜豆来吃

450
00:24:04,166 --> 00:24:06,599
然后等我长大了想狠狠的吃他

451
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,333
发现他已经停产了

452
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,800
特写为什么特写少林

453
00:24:12,533 --> 00:24:13,399
哈哈哈

454
00:24:15,333 --> 00:24:17,866
你把白子吓跑了怎么办

455
00:24:18,066 --> 00:24:20,299
你你把人家吓跑了怎么办

456
00:24:20,333 --> 00:24:22,966
天天就少林加个微信吧

457
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:25,600
你把人吓跑了怎么办

458
00:24:26,533 --> 00:24:28,499
你陪我新观众

459
00:24:38,866 --> 00:24:41,533
啊我有星光了家人们

460
00:24:41,533 --> 00:24:42,966
什么时候有的

461
00:24:44,266 --> 00:24:45,566
什么时候有的

462
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:46,766
我不知道

463
00:24:46,766 --> 00:24:49,799
我又发了400星光不知道啥时候发的

464
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:50,800
挺开心的

465
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:52,866
决定进行一个单的下

466
00:24:52,933 --> 00:24:54,399
进行一个推广的下

467
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,400
哎呀我们不用搞那个什么了哈哈哈

468
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,200
不用搞大乱斗了

469
00:24:59,200 --> 00:24:59,966
好开心啊

470
00:24:59,966 --> 00:25:02,599
大乱斗赢10把也才5星光

471
00:25:02,666 --> 00:25:04,066
爽爽爽爽

472
00:25:04,266 --> 00:25:06,466
小布丁来了全杀了

473
00:25:07,733 --> 00:25:10,399
你有没有吃过一个伊利的雪糕

474
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,100
名字叫做苦咖啡

475
00:25:14,566 --> 00:25:17,466
苦咖啡爆沙小布丁好吧

476
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:22,266
这种香浓的这个冰棍冰棒的背后

477
00:25:22,266 --> 00:25:24,599
然后掩藏着一点点的甜蜜

478
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:25,866
恰到好处

479
00:25:25,933 --> 00:25:29,466
不像巧克力一样腻人但是又十分的

480
00:25:30,566 --> 00:25:32,499
为什么变成幸运石了

481
00:25:32,733 --> 00:25:35,499
谢谢周老爷的紫金宝盒的幸运石

482
00:25:35,500 --> 00:25:37,600
粉玫瑰幸运石幸运石

483
00:25:37,866 --> 00:25:39,133
幸运石粉玫瑰

484
00:25:39,133 --> 00:25:41,966
非常感谢阿力哥的苦咖啡好处

485
00:25:41,966 --> 00:25:43,533
喜欢苦咖啡的人都

486
00:25:43,533 --> 00:25:46,133
是非常非常有品味的人

487
00:25:46,300 --> 00:25:46,966
郑老爷

488
00:25:46,966 --> 00:25:49,933
开盒子之前能不能让我看看乱动啊

489
00:25:51,333 --> 00:25:54,066
待会要送礼物之前可以让我开开慢动

490
00:25:54,066 --> 00:25:56,166
哥咱有星光PK打的吧

491
00:25:56,166 --> 00:25:59,133
真的吗有这多吗

492
00:25:59,966 --> 00:26:02,966
哎呀能不能能不能再打点

493
00:26:04,166 --> 00:26:05,799
好馋馋馋

494
00:26:08,133 --> 00:26:10,166
我啥时候能看到那个

495
00:26:10,533 --> 00:26:13,266
在哪里可以看到星光的那个

496
00:26:14,300 --> 00:26:15,100
嗯嗯

497
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:18,500
找不到了

498
00:26:18,900 --> 00:26:20,900
冰棒冰吃苦的都是逆天

499
00:26:20,900 --> 00:26:25,200
不不你不懂的他不是那种纯纯的苦味

500
00:26:25,333 --> 00:26:29,133
他是那种就在苦中含着微甜

501
00:26:29,133 --> 00:26:32,166
然后微甜中的又更衬托了那个

502
00:26:33,533 --> 00:26:34,899
层次感你懂吧

503
00:26:34,900 --> 00:26:36,533
星光我随口说的

504
00:26:37,766 --> 00:26:40,299
你懂不懂什么叫做层次感啊

505
00:26:40,300 --> 00:26:43,066
没有层次感的就是没有那个意思

506
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,166
就像是你会往炖菜里面加半勺糖

507
00:26:48,166 --> 00:26:49,699
是为了提鲜一样

508
00:26:49,733 --> 00:26:52,799
那个苦才更能衬托出他的那个甜味

509
00:26:53,300 --> 00:26:56,066
钢铁段位PK有那么多星光吗

510
00:26:56,066 --> 00:26:57,766
对呀所以我在看

511
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,800
我看一下他这个直播推广

512
00:27:02,366 --> 00:27:03,966
我啥时候发这个

513
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,900
啊虚拟分区优质主播扶持

514
00:27:11,366 --> 00:27:13,933
原来不是大乱动

515
00:27:14,300 --> 00:27:18,133
谢谢 19的金币和泡泡糖翻感谢

516
00:27:18,133 --> 00:27:21,166
爱恋爱的当然不是逆天的苦味了

517
00:27:21,166 --> 00:27:22,466
你一定要试试

518
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,533
就我觉得就现在比较火的那些

519
00:27:26,533 --> 00:27:29,099
就什么网红冰淇淋

520
00:27:29,300 --> 00:27:33,100
中靴糕啊什么的那些还有

521
00:27:33,500 --> 00:27:37,733
特贵的梦龙之类的都不能出都不好吃

522
00:27:37,766 --> 00:27:40,933
还得是小的时候吃的那个一块五

523
00:27:40,933 --> 00:27:42,399
两块钱一根的

524
00:27:43,166 --> 00:27:45,066
旺旺碎冰冰

525
00:27:45,300 --> 00:27:47,400
谢谢嗯真好吃

526
00:27:48,066 --> 00:27:51,766
我们这边那个梦龙超市打折的时候

527
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:53,366
特别特别便宜

528
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:59,566
一盒好像是6根吧还是8根然后5刀一盒

529
00:27:59,566 --> 00:28:02,533
超市打折的时候5刀不打折的时候8刀

530
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,066
基本含完税之后就5块5

531
00:28:05,133 --> 00:28:07,266
加刀的汇率是5大概就是

532
00:28:07,500 --> 00:28:11,300
呃30块钱6根或者是8根

533
00:28:11,933 --> 00:28:12,533
美国那

534
00:28:12,533 --> 00:28:15,366
便宜很多但是我从来都没买过

535
00:28:15,366 --> 00:28:18,466
就因为我觉得太甜了不好吃

536
00:28:18,666 --> 00:28:21,099
你们这些苦咖啡的不能错

537
00:28:21,533 --> 00:28:22,466
优质秤

538
00:28:23,500 --> 00:28:24,766
周先刚成成的饭

539
00:28:24,766 --> 00:28:27,533
哦对可爱多也挺好吃的

540
00:28:28,066 --> 00:28:29,399
八喜还可以

541
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:30,700
八喜可以的

542
00:28:31,933 --> 00:28:34,199
对对对我最喜欢吃那个

543
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,200
他最下面的那个天

544
00:28:38,533 --> 00:28:41,466
甜筒下面不是会有一块巧克力堵着吗

545
00:28:41,466 --> 00:28:43,566
我小的时候不喜欢吃那些

546
00:28:43,766 --> 00:28:45,999
德芙啊之类的很腻的巧克力

547
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:47,500
但我特别喜欢吃

548
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,666
雪糕脆皮那种巧克力

549
00:28:49,666 --> 00:28:51,599
为什么他会那么好吃呢

550
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,966
就我觉得雪糕脆皮上面的那个巧克力

551
00:29:01,966 --> 00:29:04,399
跟其他的巧克力是不一样的

552
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,666
不腻不会有那种

553
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:08,200
丝滑的感觉

554
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:11,533
哎为什么会那样啊我猜一下为什么

555
00:29:11,933 --> 00:29:12,799
椰子油吧

556
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,400
是不是因为他那个里面加了椰子油

557
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,066
然后改变了他的兴趣来着

558
00:29:29,333 --> 00:29:30,133
果然

559
00:29:30,133 --> 00:29:34,133
那个雪糕表面的巧克力为了要求硬度

560
00:29:34,266 --> 00:29:37,466
就会在其中混合一定比例的椰子油

561
00:29:37,466 --> 00:29:39,533
所以口感会更偏脆

562
00:29:39,733 --> 00:29:41,299
不会特别腻人

563
00:29:42,366 --> 00:29:43,999
扣一送小布丁

564
00:29:48,133 --> 00:29:49,966
一箱小布丁多少钱啊

565
00:29:49,966 --> 00:29:52,066
我们扣一送给小布丁吧

566
00:29:52,066 --> 00:29:52,866
嗯

567
00:29:53,766 --> 00:29:57,366
让我猜猜这个小布丁能不能淘宝上买

568
00:29:57,400 --> 00:29:58,966
小布丁

569
00:30:07,866 --> 00:30:10,733
折现吧不能那啥的话就折现

570
00:30:13,733 --> 00:30:16,166
一箱多少钱啊这东西

571
00:30:18,933 --> 00:30:22,066
5只5块钱一箱是多少只

572
00:30:22,066 --> 00:30:24,399
我们抽个一箱小布丁吧

573
00:30:24,566 --> 00:30:26,099
待会开心一下

574
00:30:26,166 --> 00:30:27,399
我也想吃

575
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:27,800
哎呀

576
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,400
为什么我前两天在超市看到那个

577
00:30:30,466 --> 00:30:33,099
旺旺碎冰冰

578
00:30:33,300 --> 00:30:35,566
三刀一根15人民币

579
00:30:35,566 --> 00:30:37,699
我觉得他得把我当成傻子

580
00:30:37,700 --> 00:30:40,133
20个20个20块钱

581
00:30:40,666 --> 00:30:42,466
好便宜啊这么一箱

582
00:30:44,766 --> 00:30:46,899
耶耶人代送一块5是吧

583
00:30:46,900 --> 00:30:48,000
香草加橙汁

584
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,666
在我的直播间发送了红包了

585
00:30:50,700 --> 00:30:52,766
你已经获得了部分收益

586
00:30:52,766 --> 00:30:54,666
谢谢香草的红包非常感

587
00:30:54,666 --> 00:30:58,666
谢阿里嘎到我们开个扣一送小布丁

588
00:30:59,533 --> 00:31:02,499
谢谢陆梦敏的关注非常感谢谢谢

589
00:31:02,500 --> 00:31:04,066
牌子阿里嘎到

590
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,866
好你个烟人在走啊

591
00:31:06,866 --> 00:31:12,466
奖励名称一箱小布丁哈哈哈

592
00:31:17,366 --> 00:31:18,466
弹幕口令

593
00:31:18,966 --> 00:31:22,699
扣一一一一送小布丁

594
00:31:30,866 --> 00:31:33,466
怎么了你杀了我干什么

595
00:31:33,466 --> 00:31:34,466
欢迎梦瑶

596
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,966
他在审核了审完了就可以抽了嘿嘿

597
00:31:41,966 --> 00:31:43,566
扣一送小布丁

598
00:31:45,566 --> 00:31:48,066
真送啊哥真送真送

599
00:31:48,366 --> 00:31:50,199
哎呀真送呵呵

600
00:31:51,566 --> 00:31:53,166
给我们合开

601
00:31:53,366 --> 00:31:56,933
真送啊哥哥可以换成地狱火吗

602
00:31:56,933 --> 00:32:01,066
一箱小布丁得5箱才能买个地狱火吧

603
00:32:01,900 --> 00:32:04,533
我最近又把那个龙吓回来了

604
00:32:04,533 --> 00:32:05,766
但是就

605
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,333
主播觉得自己的这个手游瘾

606
00:32:09,333 --> 00:32:10,499
一次是被戒除

607
00:32:10,500 --> 00:32:11,766
的非常彻底啊

608
00:32:19,300 --> 00:32:22,500
木口令为什么不是一一一我不能认可

609
00:32:22,566 --> 00:32:25,333
哈哈哈能批干什么

610
00:32:25,666 --> 00:32:27,799
谢谢东方中的泡泡糖糖

611
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:29,100
感谢阿力哥的

612
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:32,133
我家小布丁合成一个地狱火

613
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:34,600
什么合成地狱火啊

614
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,533
你们有没有人能做一下啊

615
00:32:36,533 --> 00:32:38,533
我最近玩了那个

616
00:32:38,533 --> 00:32:41,366
就是那个一分钟就20秒

617
00:32:41,366 --> 00:32:46,099
看你能踩多少个VIP头像的那个游戏

618
00:32:46,666 --> 00:32:48,533
我玩了阿紫的那个版本了

619
00:32:48,533 --> 00:32:49,166
有没有有

620
00:32:49,166 --> 00:32:51,133
能的朋友可以做一个米安米

621
00:32:51,133 --> 00:32:52,333
亚的版本啊

622
00:32:52,533 --> 00:32:54,999
谢谢东方肉的泡泡糖房感谢

623
00:32:55,900 --> 00:32:58,133
欢迎少女晚上好

624
00:32:58,133 --> 00:33:01,099
二二二可以换成称老爷吗哥

625
00:33:01,266 --> 00:33:02,066
哈

626
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:03,800
哈

627
00:33:15,866 --> 00:33:19,533
我的新衣服是千手观音

628
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,666
谢谢19的牛蛙牛蛙

629
00:33:25,666 --> 00:33:27,399
谢谢大树林鸡的打call

630
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:28,933
谢谢香草的打call谢谢

631
00:33:28,933 --> 00:33:30,299
天津的打call谢谢

632
00:33:30,766 --> 00:33:32,599
浮梦最疯的牛蛙牛蛙

633
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:34,766
谢谢菠萝老师的打call谢谢明白

634
00:33:34,766 --> 00:33:36,299
少女的牛排牛排

635
00:33:37,933 --> 00:33:39,599
谢谢周老爷的这个好爱

636
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,166
谢谢梦瑶的这个好爱放

637
00:33:41,166 --> 00:33:43,466
感谢谢谢疯熊的扭弯扭弯Aligat

638
00:33:43,933 --> 00:33:45,166
哎为什么忽

639
00:33:45,166 --> 00:33:48,399
然这么频繁的送我礼物给我

640
00:33:49,266 --> 00:33:51,299
晚上好大姐

641
00:33:51,300 --> 00:33:53,333
怎么样怎么样我的心歪

642
00:33:53,333 --> 00:33:54,999
是不是非常的喜气洋洋

643
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:55,933
什么版本啊

644
00:33:55,933 --> 00:33:58,566
主播啊什么什么版本

645
00:33:59,666 --> 00:34:01,299
谢谢皇家骑士的打call

646
00:34:01,300 --> 00:34:02,500
谢谢牛蛙牛蛙饭

647
00:34:02,500 --> 00:34:05,066
感谢阿力盖的啊因为有红包啊

648
00:34:05,066 --> 00:34:06,899
这个红包是领了之后

649
00:34:06,933 --> 00:34:08,733
自动送给主播的吗

650
00:34:10,066 --> 00:34:12,099
原来是自动送给主播的

651
00:34:12,100 --> 00:34:15,666
我还以为是那个可以在包里面的

652
00:34:15,666 --> 00:34:17,466
谢谢木木子一的三个牛蛙

653
00:34:17,466 --> 00:34:18,666
牛蛙阿力盖的

654
00:34:21,500 --> 00:34:23,200
原来不是这样吗

655
00:34:23,700 --> 00:34:26,133
用香草的米给燕子打米

656
00:34:26,266 --> 00:34:27,333
好开心啊

657
00:34:27,733 --> 00:34:28,866
要个一箭头

658
00:34:28,866 --> 00:34:29,499
谢谢大家

659
00:34:29,500 --> 00:34:31,466
一箭头给我谢谢你们

660
00:34:31,466 --> 00:34:33,066
是大伙直接送给我

661
00:34:33,066 --> 00:34:35,266
我的烟云也太爱我了吧

662
00:34:35,366 --> 00:34:36,166
嘿嘿

663
00:34:37,100 --> 00:34:39,366
开心了开心了

664
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:46,200
你们你们从别的女人那边抢红包然后

665
00:34:47,366 --> 00:34:48,899
然后来问我

666
00:34:48,900 --> 00:34:51,300
别的女人知道我不会生气吗

667
00:34:51,300 --> 00:34:54,800
给给来吃一口这个这个小猫猫汉堡吧

668
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:55,600
给给

669
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,966
谢谢各位19的红包榜

670
00:34:58,966 --> 00:35:00,966
感谢爱丽哥的主播

671
00:35:00,966 --> 00:35:03,466
我第一个天选为什么都没看到

672
00:35:03,466 --> 00:35:05,933
你不知道天选有一部分没发奖

673
00:35:05,933 --> 00:35:07,533
好像好多都没发奖

674
00:35:09,766 --> 00:35:12,099
等主播狠狠的整理完了啊

675
00:35:22,733 --> 00:35:24,766
不是那个情书吗

676
00:35:24,933 --> 00:35:25,999
好好听

677
00:35:27,266 --> 00:35:28,999
这就去别的女人直播间

678
00:35:29,000 --> 00:35:31,533
主播为什么我一个天选都没有中过

679
00:35:31,533 --> 00:35:32,866
你说你想中什么

680
00:35:33,766 --> 00:35:35,466
你说你想种什么

681
00:35:36,766 --> 00:35:38,766
我给你狠狠的安排一下

682
00:35:39,100 --> 00:35:42,500
因为你没有参加上次那个三个提督

683
00:35:42,500 --> 00:35:43,800
然后五个

684
00:35:43,900 --> 00:35:45,533
五个那个什么的时候

685
00:35:45,533 --> 00:35:48,666
谢谢茶姐的凉风情书榜

686
00:35:48,700 --> 00:35:50,100
感谢阿力来到

687
00:35:59,066 --> 00:36:03,699
我当年这个玩计算器音乐的时候

688
00:36:03,866 --> 00:36:06,199
还会弹这两个东西呢

689
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,133
前两天的歌单有点好听

690
00:36:09,133 --> 00:36:10,466
可以分享到群里吗

691
00:36:10,466 --> 00:36:12,399
没有歌单哈哈哈

692
00:36:12,866 --> 00:36:16,533
那不是我的歌单那是我的私人FM推荐

693
00:36:16,900 --> 00:36:18,600
那不是我的歌单

694
00:36:21,866 --> 00:36:26,166
想中一辆911911是什么呀

695
00:36:27,866 --> 00:36:29,399
911是什么呀

696
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:33,200
我只知道211和985

697
00:36:33,733 --> 00:36:35,933
对花把你坐标给我

698
00:36:35,933 --> 00:36:39,533
哈哈哈我想中一个机会

699
00:36:40,866 --> 00:36:43,099
可别搞了今天第一火

700
00:36:43,100 --> 00:36:44,333
第一火是吧

701
00:36:44,333 --> 00:36:46,466
我就是呃直接是

702
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,533
不是我室友的心碎哥在呢

703
00:36:49,700 --> 00:36:50,966
我怎么又给我

704
00:36:51,133 --> 00:36:53,199
他在这打发叫花子是吧

705
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,133
又给我150斤仓鼠

706
00:36:55,133 --> 00:36:57,266
奖励我完成了主播任务

707
00:36:57,733 --> 00:37:00,266
挺好的待会这个直接折现了啊

708
00:37:00,266 --> 00:37:03,266
这个这个小布丁一箱直接折现了

709
00:37:03,266 --> 00:37:04,766
折个18块8

710
00:37:04,766 --> 00:37:06,999
因为好像是20根一箱吧

711
00:37:07,733 --> 00:37:10,499
冬天这个小布丁怎么了有问题吗

712
00:37:10,500 --> 00:37:11,466
就直接折现了

713
00:37:11,466 --> 00:37:14,066
家人们因为现在寄快递寄不过去

714
00:37:15,733 --> 00:37:17,866
直接发我一个微信收款码

715
00:37:17,866 --> 00:37:19,166
不要QQ收款码不

716
00:37:19,166 --> 00:37:21,099
也不要那个支付宝收款码

717
00:37:21,100 --> 00:37:24,000
因为这两个我都没办法给你们扫

718
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:26,466
大家那个我听选欠了红包的

719
00:37:26,466 --> 00:37:29,199
直接那个发我微信收款码就可以

720
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:30,000
嗯嗯

721
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,866
冬天抽小布丁冻死耶耶

722
00:37:34,700 --> 00:37:37,600
我想吃我想吃

723
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:38,966
睡了晚安

724
00:37:38,966 --> 00:37:40,299
主播出来

725
00:37:40,300 --> 00:37:41,100
嗯

726
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:45,166
直播间的一爱人都把匣子9527出来

727
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:47,566
晚上好热娘

728
00:37:48,500 --> 00:37:50,533
谢谢香草的爱了爱了

729
00:37:50,533 --> 00:37:51,866
谢谢少女的牛蛙牛蛙

730
00:37:51,866 --> 00:37:53,333
谢谢东方正的牛蛙牛蛙

731
00:37:53,333 --> 00:37:55,699
谢谢菠萝的仙人靠谢谢天津的打call

732
00:37:55,700 --> 00:37:57,133
谢谢那羊捏的牛蛙牛蛙

733
00:37:57,133 --> 00:37:57,933
爱的一个到

734
00:37:58,500 --> 00:38:01,500
啊谢谢周老师的红包凡凡感谢

735
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:03,100
谢谢林迪的爱了爱了

736
00:38:03,100 --> 00:38:04,966
谢谢冯梦追风的爱了爱了

737
00:38:04,966 --> 00:38:05,866
你们在这

738
00:38:06,366 --> 00:38:08,566
考我绕口令呢是吧

739
00:38:08,566 --> 00:38:11,466
只要礼物不停主播就只能一直这个

740
00:38:11,466 --> 00:38:13,533
嗯嗯嗯抢对吧

741
00:38:13,966 --> 00:38:15,566
这辈子第一次中

742
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,733
听好了听好了叫你小送你小布丁

743
00:38:20,966 --> 00:38:22,999
那一起吃小布丁吧

744
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,000
我可以在我自己的直播间发红包吗

745
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:30,733
一个红包

746
00:38:30,733 --> 00:38:33,499
就可以让主播进行一个彩蛋的念

747
00:38:34,133 --> 00:38:34,766
一个红包

748
00:38:34,766 --> 00:38:37,766
就可以让主播进行一个这个嘴皮子的

749
00:38:37,766 --> 00:38:42,733
6 其实你可以选择性的念嗯那不要嘛

750
00:38:43,266 --> 00:38:44,366
那就算了

751
00:38:58,900 --> 00:39:00,466
是主播的嘴皮子先进

752
00:39:00,466 --> 00:39:02,133
还是主播的电脑先进

753
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:04,466
谢谢梦瑶的牛蛙牛蛙

754
00:39:04,466 --> 00:39:05,866
谢谢梦瑶的小花花草

755
00:39:05,866 --> 00:39:06,966
感谢阿力哥的

756
00:39:06,966 --> 00:39:09,533
谢谢亮哥牛蛙牛蛙和两个小花花

757
00:39:09,533 --> 00:39:12,099
100以下还是不念忘交之

758
00:39:13,666 --> 00:39:17,366
探索者起航以下的礼物主播通通不念

759
00:39:17,566 --> 00:39:18,499
这个

760
00:39:18,900 --> 00:39:23,333
这个大红SC以下的SC主播通通看不见

761
00:39:24,266 --> 00:39:26,566
主播就是这样一个玩弄人心

762
00:39:26,566 --> 00:39:28,099
玩弄人迷的坏女人

763
00:39:28,100 --> 00:39:29,133
你相信吗

764
00:39:29,133 --> 00:39:30,533
我不相信啊

765
00:39:31,866 --> 00:39:33,466
哪有那么坏呀

766
00:39:35,866 --> 00:39:36,999
你录音

767
00:39:37,700 --> 00:39:39,266
你要三减一是吧

768
00:39:39,333 --> 00:39:40,333
我不想三

769
00:39:40,333 --> 00:39:41,366
不你三减一

770
00:39:41,366 --> 00:39:44,133
明是用探索热情狠狠的探索

771
00:39:44,933 --> 00:39:48,266
但呀欢迎你奥特曼去骂了我

772
00:39:48,366 --> 00:39:50,533
你看你都叫爱钱的老钱

773
00:39:50,533 --> 00:39:52,099
凭什么我不能爱钱啊

774
00:39:52,100 --> 00:39:54,133
我就是非常非常爱钱的VIP

775
00:39:54,166 --> 00:39:55,333
米耶米啊事业

776
00:40:04,100 --> 00:40:06,333
本来想送鸿运小电视的

777
00:40:06,333 --> 00:40:07,699
主播不念就算了

778
00:40:07,700 --> 00:40:08,766
你你不

779
00:40:08,766 --> 00:40:11,699
你要送鸿运小电视不得先上个总督吗

780
00:40:12,333 --> 00:40:13,266
我记得送混响

781
00:40:13,266 --> 00:40:15,499
但是得先上总督才能送吧

782
00:40:15,700 --> 00:40:16,766
我看一下

783
00:40:24,466 --> 00:40:25,999
啊是大航海呀

784
00:40:27,566 --> 00:40:30,466
我还以为是那个探索者起航那个

785
00:40:30,466 --> 00:40:31,699
那个那个什么

786
00:40:34,733 --> 00:40:35,666
像我明抢

787
00:40:35,666 --> 00:40:37,399
我属于是狠狠的明抢

788
00:40:37,533 --> 00:40:38,466
哎这个

789
00:40:38,466 --> 00:40:41,099
直播间的大伙一直以来都非常照顾我

790
00:40:41,100 --> 00:40:43,666
就像我的这个再生父母一样

791
00:40:43,666 --> 00:40:46,699
这个过年的时候发点红包不过分吧

792
00:40:46,766 --> 00:40:50,499
哈哈开玩笑了开玩笑了啊正经你

793
00:40:56,866 --> 00:40:58,866
我又放了我喜欢的歌

794
00:41:04,066 --> 00:41:07,299
坏了坏了家人们坏了坏了坏了坏了

795
00:41:08,100 --> 00:41:10,666
电脑要记忆了家人们谢谢

796
00:41:10,666 --> 00:41:11,966
东方叫牛蛙牛蛙谢谢

797
00:41:11,966 --> 00:41:13,499
大树林地的牛蛙牛蛙谢谢

798
00:41:13,500 --> 00:41:14,733
丰雄记得牛蛙牛蛙

799
00:41:14,733 --> 00:41:15,799
谢谢天津的打call

800
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:16,933
谢谢香草的打call

801
00:41:16,933 --> 00:41:18,099
谢谢86的打call

802
00:41:18,333 --> 00:41:19,899
谢谢天下的牛蛙牛蛙

803
00:41:19,900 --> 00:41:21,166
谢谢菠萝老师的打call

804
00:41:21,166 --> 00:41:22,299
谢谢永驻星辰的打call

805
00:41:22,300 --> 00:41:23,866
谢谢胜利玫瑰花的打call

806
00:41:24,133 --> 00:41:26,399
谢谢老谢谢魔域圣天使的牛蛙牛蛙

807
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:29,300
谢谢木木子怡的这个好哎棒棒感谢

808
00:41:29,566 --> 00:41:31,366
谢谢浮梦追风的打call

809
00:41:31,933 --> 00:41:34,933
谢谢熬热的两个小心心帮忙

810
00:41:34,933 --> 00:41:36,266
感谢阿力来到

811
00:41:36,700 --> 00:41:39,166
一场100多个舰长

812
00:41:40,100 --> 00:41:41,000
我啥时候要

813
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:43,366
一场100多个舰长我卸了不睡觉

814
00:41:43,366 --> 00:41:45,099
24小时让你卸东西

815
00:41:45,566 --> 00:41:47,333
谢谢周老爷的牛蛙牛蛙棒

816
00:41:47,333 --> 00:41:48,566
感谢阿力来到

817
00:41:48,566 --> 00:41:49,799
谢谢谢谢

818
00:41:50,866 --> 00:41:52,899
come pick it up it's the door

819
00:41:52,900 --> 00:41:56,933
come pick it up till you say whoa

820
00:42:12,066 --> 00:42:13,933
卡死了家人们

821
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,600
我在想我把什么东西关掉

822
00:42:22,766 --> 00:42:25,666
谢谢东方中的白云宝和金币

823
00:42:25,666 --> 00:42:28,866
谢谢郑老爷的幸运石粉玫瑰

824
00:42:29,466 --> 00:42:31,766
幸运石粉玫瑰

825
00:42:34,300 --> 00:42:38,200
幸运石幸运石幸运石啊幸运石粉玫瑰

826
00:42:38,366 --> 00:42:42,566
幸运石谢谢沙石真的送的比克拉糖

827
00:42:42,566 --> 00:42:43,599
感谢阿力来到

828
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:45,600
谢谢支持

829
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,100
红包一次只能存在一个

830
00:42:49,100 --> 00:42:50,733
我觉得不是很合理

831
00:42:51,300 --> 00:42:53,866
我们又不是那种红包不停的大v

832
00:42:53,866 --> 00:42:54,999
直播间啊

833
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:58,100
这个主播自己能给自己送红包吗

834
00:42:58,733 --> 00:43:01,999
特鲁多奥菲抽烟的疫苗护照

835
00:43:02,266 --> 00:43:03,299
哎你们别提了

836
00:43:03,300 --> 00:43:04,600
我今天就在研究这个事情

837
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:06,066
这个疫苗护照的这个事情

838
00:43:09,866 --> 00:43:12,266
我不管怎么在网上去申请

839
00:43:12,266 --> 00:43:16,099
他都告诉我我我那个匡威的ID不能用

840
00:43:16,166 --> 00:43:17,733
然后我那个那个

841
00:43:18,900 --> 00:43:20,100
那个那个

842
00:43:20,733 --> 00:43:23,133
我去那是那个网站也不行

843
00:43:23,133 --> 00:43:26,533
就只能给他打电话我要给他打电话

844
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:28,300
然后让他

845
00:43:28,933 --> 00:43:30,766
寄到我家里

846
00:43:30,900 --> 00:43:33,200
家人们我怎么可能打电话

847
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,666
能说明白这么复杂的东西啊

848
00:43:36,700 --> 00:43:39,566
我本来以为就直接上传就行了

849
00:43:39,566 --> 00:43:41,799
燕子我变皇马了哦

850
00:43:43,133 --> 00:43:43,933
真的吗

851
00:43:45,566 --> 00:43:46,366
真的吗

852
00:43:51,766 --> 00:43:54,099
反转了过年皇马的话

853
00:43:54,100 --> 00:43:56,966
就可以待在家里24小时狠狠的溜烟

854
00:43:58,166 --> 00:43:59,766
没事的没事的

855
00:43:59,766 --> 00:44:00,733
这个应该

856
00:44:01,666 --> 00:44:03,733
谢谢花花在睡觉的

857
00:44:03,733 --> 00:44:07,399
这个好哎这个好哎这个好哎这个好哎

858
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:10,933
干嘛这么想打我两拳是吧

859
00:44:10,933 --> 00:44:12,266
谢谢菠萝老师的打call

860
00:44:12,266 --> 00:44:13,366
谢谢林迪的打call

861
00:44:13,366 --> 00:44:14,499
谢谢天津的牛蛙牛蛙

862
00:44:14,500 --> 00:44:15,966
谢谢天下的牛蛙牛蛙

863
00:44:16,100 --> 00:44:17,766
谢谢浮梦追风的牛蛙牛蛙

864
00:44:17,766 --> 00:44:20,099
谢谢楚凉皇家骑士的牛蛙牛蛙

865
00:44:20,366 --> 00:44:21,499
谢谢梦瑶的牛啊牛啊

866
00:44:21,500 --> 00:44:23,566
谢谢月映竹青的打call

867
00:44:23,566 --> 00:44:25,199
谢谢勾引师长的牛啊牛啊

868
00:44:25,333 --> 00:44:26,966
谢谢冰糖巧克力的牛啊牛啊

869
00:44:26,966 --> 00:44:28,566
谢谢魔力赠天使的打call

870
00:44:28,566 --> 00:44:29,766
谢谢星辰的打call

871
00:44:30,066 --> 00:44:31,899
谢谢木木子怡的牛啊牛啊

872
00:44:31,900 --> 00:44:33,566
谢谢胜利的对花的打call

873
00:44:33,566 --> 00:44:34,966
谢谢郑老爷的牛啊牛啊

874
00:44:34,966 --> 00:44:37,199
谢谢某某同志牛啊牛啊

875
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:39,566
谢谢白善女和沙师珍的牛啊牛啊

876
00:44:39,566 --> 00:44:40,999
非常感谢阿力哥哥

877
00:44:42,266 --> 00:44:44,066
谢谢香草的大哥

878
00:44:44,366 --> 00:44:46,066
谢谢东方叫我牛啊牛啊

879
00:44:46,066 --> 00:44:49,066
哎呀你们不要再让我念绕口令了

880
00:44:49,066 --> 00:44:50,966
能不能让我念点正常的

881
00:44:51,266 --> 00:44:54,266
扁担宽板凳长扁担不小

882
00:44:54,266 --> 00:44:56,066
板凳绑在扁担上

883
00:44:56,600 --> 00:44:59,466
这个扁担偏要绑在板凳上

884
00:44:59,533 --> 00:45:01,266
晚上好神的堕落

885
00:45:01,300 --> 00:45:02,666
嗯好久不见

886
00:45:04,166 --> 00:45:06,166
主播是聋哑人吗

887
00:45:06,166 --> 00:45:08,566
速度能不能再快一点

888
00:45:10,500 --> 00:45:11,300
啊

889
00:45:13,133 --> 00:45:14,199
气死了快点

890
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:15,733
谢谢大家的礼物

891
00:45:15,766 --> 00:45:17,766
今天晚上可以点歌吗

892
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:25,100
要点唱的歌还是还是放的歌BGM

893
00:45:25,100 --> 00:45:26,600
都可以点的但是

894
00:45:27,166 --> 00:45:30,566
唱歌的话主播唱的歌不好听

895
00:45:30,566 --> 00:45:32,566
所以说啊

896
00:45:33,066 --> 00:45:34,566
我可以哼两句

897
00:45:35,400 --> 00:45:36,900
谢谢伟大的关注者

898
00:45:36,900 --> 00:45:37,766
你玩你玩什么

899
00:45:37,766 --> 00:45:39,133
考虑去练个贯口

900
00:45:39,133 --> 00:45:41,066
你们可以发给我我可以说的

901
00:45:41,066 --> 00:45:44,399
我会的为什么要把你跳过去哈哈哈

902
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:47,266
为什么主播晚上可以有40个人唱的

903
00:45:47,466 --> 00:45:48,733
我不会唱歌呀

904
00:45:48,733 --> 00:45:51,999
可是你要点个生日快乐之类的

905
00:45:52,000 --> 00:45:53,566
主播还能给你唱唱

906
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:58,700
主播晚上为什么会有40个人看啊

907
00:45:58,700 --> 00:46:00,766
对啊我为什么会有40个人看啊

908
00:46:00,766 --> 00:46:03,133
主播直播间的人基本都说的话

909
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:05,266
没有会听的人

910
00:46:05,766 --> 00:46:09,499
给我们的风华顶个少女作妖日记

911
00:46:09,866 --> 00:46:12,533
嗯有熟悉的人了

912
00:46:15,666 --> 00:46:17,133
黑暗骑士

913
00:46:17,133 --> 00:46:20,266
黑暗骑士是什么歌啊这听着好钟爱啊

914
00:46:20,933 --> 00:46:22,266
谁都没有可以听的

915
00:46:22,266 --> 00:46:23,533
没有人可以听啊

916
00:46:23,533 --> 00:46:26,533
我今天直播间同街一共才啊

917
00:46:26,533 --> 00:46:29,566
谢谢某过去的东方正的红包上榜

918
00:46:29,566 --> 00:46:30,766
感谢爱丽哥哥

919
00:46:33,466 --> 00:46:35,733
没有黑厅我是知道的

920
00:46:35,733 --> 00:46:37,366
黑厅就几个人

921
00:46:37,366 --> 00:46:38,799
这已经很少了

922
00:46:49,866 --> 00:46:51,533
这个红包是怎么玩的在

923
00:46:51,533 --> 00:46:54,466
新版的直播间里发一言就可以了

924
00:46:54,466 --> 00:46:57,366
不是不是在礼物栏里面就可以吧

925
00:46:57,366 --> 00:46:59,099
在定制里面

926
00:47:01,533 --> 00:47:04,266
谢谢花花在睡觉的见长发吗

927
00:47:04,266 --> 00:47:05,766
感谢阿力哥哥

928
00:47:06,333 --> 00:47:08,733
我操的阿力哥的谢谢

929
00:47:08,733 --> 00:47:10,066
谢谢花花

930
00:47:10,333 --> 00:47:12,399
比心我操的

931
00:47:12,866 --> 00:47:14,333
不是不可以黑听

932
00:47:14,333 --> 00:47:17,499
是今天那个黑听的比例特别少

933
00:47:17,500 --> 00:47:18,666
我很开心

934
00:47:19,500 --> 00:47:22,333
因为你们在直播间说话会比较热闹

935
00:47:22,333 --> 00:47:24,566
然后我我会很开心

936
00:47:24,566 --> 00:47:27,733
但是你们喜欢黑天的话我也很高兴

937
00:47:27,733 --> 00:47:30,699
因为其实你在我直播间吗我就会开心

938
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:34,266
是你的女王你是我的太阳

939
00:47:34,266 --> 00:47:37,899
让我们相互给一个抱抱

940
00:47:37,900 --> 00:47:41,533
忍不住哈哈哈哈少女般的笑

941
00:47:41,533 --> 00:47:45,166
我想要抓抓抓抓想做你的猫

942
00:47:45,166 --> 00:47:46,366
睁大眼哈

943
00:47:46,466 --> 00:47:48,199
主播需要见长

944
00:47:48,300 --> 00:47:50,733
主播喜欢85个

945
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,566
我还喜欢1,000个见长呢

946
00:47:53,566 --> 00:47:55,399
我一直都很需要见长

947
00:47:55,500 --> 00:47:58,000
主播加班时间在心里算着呢

948
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:02,366
现在都到了9,0009,200个小时了

949
00:48:02,466 --> 00:48:04,733
嗯到9,200了

950
00:48:07,133 --> 00:48:10,199
哎你们希望的话我可以写在下面

951
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:11,300
我又开了

952
00:48:11,300 --> 00:48:13,100
因为电脑太烂了吗

953
00:48:13,100 --> 00:48:16,100
我就很着急申请这个疫苗护照

954
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:19,766
我还着急申请那个退税

955
00:48:21,300 --> 00:48:23,333
这个歌以前没有听过

956
00:48:23,366 --> 00:48:25,266
要撒娇我最重要

957
00:48:25,300 --> 00:48:28,900
独特的方式别人体验不到

958
00:48:28,900 --> 00:48:29,933
我是你的女

959
00:48:29,933 --> 00:48:31,466
这个听起来好像那个什么

960
00:48:31,466 --> 00:48:32,799
我我想要什么

961
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:34,933
做你的猫然后一直在你怀里

962
00:48:34,933 --> 00:48:37,099
喵喵喵那是个什么歌来着

963
00:48:37,333 --> 00:48:41,333
哈哈哈想每晚都笑我想要抓抓抓

964
00:48:42,066 --> 00:48:45,766
想做我把它写在边上吧哈哈哈哈

965
00:48:45,766 --> 00:48:47,066
你帅的不要

966
00:48:47,066 --> 00:48:48,933
不许你掏掏掏

967
00:48:49,366 --> 00:48:50,533
要在你怀抱

968
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:51,800
我什么时候回来

969
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,266
加班就是哥们总督的日子

970
00:48:54,766 --> 00:48:56,366
你还不如说主播

971
00:48:56,566 --> 00:48:58,999
我下辈子才想给你上总督

972
00:48:59,666 --> 00:49:04,366
主播现在加班时间9,200小时年化不离5%

973
00:49:08,300 --> 00:49:11,133
棉花腹里5%是什么意思啊

974
00:49:15,700 --> 00:49:16,500
球球

975
00:49:17,266 --> 00:49:18,899
这马上要过年了

976
00:49:18,900 --> 00:49:21,100
乘以0.05哇

977
00:49:21,300 --> 00:49:23,100
460个小时

978
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:24,933
我也喜欢

979
00:49:24,933 --> 00:49:27,166
加速后的心跳

980
00:49:27,166 --> 00:49:30,799
想住进你心里的怀抱

981
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:33,266
给一个拥抱用

982
00:49:33,366 --> 00:49:35,166
谢谢乘凉皇家骑士的打call

983
00:49:35,166 --> 00:49:36,799
谢谢梦瑶的这个好爱

984
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:38,866
谢谢抚梦追风的牛蛙牛蛙

985
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:40,566
谢谢永驻星辰的这个好爱

986
00:49:40,566 --> 00:49:42,099
谢谢胜利的对花的牛蛙牛蛙

987
00:49:42,100 --> 00:49:43,600
谢谢某某同志的牛蛙牛蛙谢谢

988
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:44,333
花生要黑町

989
00:49:44,333 --> 00:49:45,266
的牛蛙牛蛙

990
00:49:45,333 --> 00:49:46,566
谢谢白善女的打call

991
00:49:46,566 --> 00:49:47,966
谢谢光之勇者的打call

992
00:49:47,966 --> 00:49:50,799
谢谢风雄记的牛蛙牛蛙非常感

993
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:51,600
谢

994
00:49:52,333 --> 00:49:54,866
谢魔域升天使的打卡谢谢

995
00:49:55,766 --> 00:49:58,466
杠杠杠杠杠的牛啊牛啊

996
00:50:00,333 --> 00:50:02,599
主播就惯着你们吧

997
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:05,533
加班剩余

998
00:50:06,266 --> 00:50:08,133
9,200小时

999
00:50:11,166 --> 00:50:12,166
就惯着你们吧

1000
00:50:12,166 --> 00:50:14,399
谢谢花花在睡觉的这个好哎

1001
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:15,333
挨了一个到

1002
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,533
我是不是太惯着你们了嗯

1003
00:50:28,133 --> 00:50:29,933
谢谢无力中阿姨的打call

1004
00:50:29,933 --> 00:50:31,866
谢谢东方正的这个好哎

1005
00:50:31,900 --> 00:50:32,900
阿里个到

1006
00:50:33,166 --> 00:50:35,866
谢谢梦瑶在我直播间发送的红包

1007
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,666
哈哈哈谢谢谢谢

1008
00:50:38,666 --> 00:50:40,533
谢谢花花在睡觉的这个好哎

1009
00:50:40,533 --> 00:50:42,899
谢谢白善女的小花花谢谢

1010
00:50:42,966 --> 00:50:45,133
杠杠杠杠杠的打call

1011
00:50:45,333 --> 00:50:46,199
阿里个到

1012
00:50:47,533 --> 00:50:52,099
我也希望有一天可以像这个文静一样

1013
00:50:52,966 --> 00:50:55,266
哦我开个大乱斗吧家人们

1014
00:50:55,266 --> 00:50:56,533
我开个大乱斗吧

1015
00:50:56,533 --> 00:50:57,866
我也只有礼物怎么没上

1016
00:50:57,866 --> 00:51:00,399
我忘了开大乱斗了让我开个大乱斗

1017
00:51:03,166 --> 00:51:05,299
这个如果把所有礼物都送给主播

1018
00:51:05,300 --> 00:51:06,400
红包好像是赚的

1019
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:07,266
是赚的吗

1020
00:51:07,266 --> 00:51:08,166
这么厉害

1021
00:51:09,000 --> 00:51:11,700
谢谢花花在睡觉的这个好好想给红包

1022
00:51:11,700 --> 00:51:12,500
一直在

1023
00:51:13,166 --> 00:51:13,966
是不是一直

1024
00:51:16,733 --> 00:51:17,766
晚上好

1025
00:51:18,766 --> 00:51:19,866
晚上好晚上好

1026
00:51:19,866 --> 00:51:22,066
什么情况啊

1027
00:51:22,066 --> 00:51:25,333
这怎么你们你们红包把我干砍了

1028
00:51:25,500 --> 00:51:26,700
把我干碎

1029
00:51:28,666 --> 00:51:30,933
真的有个好笑的

1030
00:51:31,666 --> 00:51:35,066
是我卡了啊对面是六连胜

1031
00:51:35,066 --> 00:51:36,133
哇好厉害

1032
00:51:36,266 --> 00:51:37,866
谢谢周来的白银宝盒

1033
00:51:37,866 --> 00:51:39,199
的泡泡糖和金地盘

1034
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:40,500
感谢阿力哥哥

1035
00:51:40,666 --> 00:51:42,899
谢谢花花在睡觉的这个好哎

1036
00:51:42,900 --> 00:51:44,466
真不怪一年人

1037
00:51:44,966 --> 00:51:46,999
我我真怪我

1038
00:51:47,600 --> 00:51:49,533
谢谢伟大的关注主播主播红

1039
00:51:49,533 --> 00:51:51,366
包一直在是不是一直不下播

1040
00:51:51,366 --> 00:51:53,166
对一直在一直不下播

1041
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:55,966
今天我看待球会

1042
00:51:57,966 --> 00:51:59,999
是我开了对不起大家

1043
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:01,166
谢谢花花在睡觉的

1044
00:52:01,166 --> 00:52:02,066
这个好爱上

1045
00:52:02,066 --> 00:52:03,199
感谢爱丽哥哥

1046
00:52:04,566 --> 00:52:06,199
这怎么领先1,000啊

1047
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,000
这含金量也太高了

1048
00:52:08,666 --> 00:52:10,666
家人们这把多半是戒了

1049
00:52:10,666 --> 00:52:12,533
我已经感觉到这把要戒了

1050
00:52:12,533 --> 00:52:15,133
对面是六连胜肯定很厉害了

1051
00:52:15,566 --> 00:52:17,333
谢谢共饮失调的牛蛙牛蛙

1052
00:52:17,333 --> 00:52:19,199
谢谢伟大的光情者的牛蛙牛蛙

1053
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:21,533
谢谢梦瑶的红包谢谢花花在睡觉的

1054
00:52:21,533 --> 00:52:23,766
这个好哎谢谢一般起来说的打call

1055
00:52:23,766 --> 00:52:25,733
谢谢我毛毛同志的爱的爱的

1056
00:52:25,766 --> 00:52:27,466
谢谢白善宇的打call

1057
00:52:27,466 --> 00:52:29,366
非常感谢爱丽爱豆欢迎花儿

1058
00:52:29,900 --> 00:52:32,600
对啊对面是大主播椰子屁都不是

1059
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:33,566
进了会怎么样

1060
00:52:33,566 --> 00:52:34,799
进了也不会怎么样了

1061
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:36,266
真的就呜呜的哭

1062
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:37,900
也没有什么

1063
00:52:40,066 --> 00:52:42,499
谢谢东方肉的紫丁宝盒的幸运食堂

1064
00:52:42,500 --> 00:52:43,900
感谢爱丽爱豆

1065
00:52:44,066 --> 00:52:45,699
谢谢永生之酒的牛蛙牛蛙

1066
00:52:45,700 --> 00:52:48,133
谢谢点刚刚点的牛蛙牛蛙

1067
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:49,366
谢谢花花在睡觉了

1068
00:52:49,366 --> 00:52:50,266
这个好哎

1069
00:52:52,700 --> 00:52:54,900
谢谢少女的金币泡泡糖

1070
00:52:54,900 --> 00:52:56,800
打榜泡泡糖泡泡糖

1071
00:52:56,933 --> 00:52:58,866
金币金币泡泡糖泡泡糖

1072
00:52:58,866 --> 00:53:00,266
金币金币打榜

1073
00:53:00,566 --> 00:53:02,466
金币金币泡泡糖

1074
00:53:02,566 --> 00:53:05,599
我操you've got here tonight

1075
00:53:08,300 --> 00:53:10,166
什么叫势均力敌啊

1076
00:53:10,166 --> 00:53:11,533
这怎么能打成这样了

1077
00:53:11,533 --> 00:53:14,066
谢谢豆儿的心愿水晶球谢谢花花钻

1078
00:53:14,066 --> 00:53:15,299
睡觉了这个好哎

1079
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:18,000
怎么打成这样了

1080
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:20,566
谢谢亲下的粉玫瑰粉玫瑰

1081
00:53:20,566 --> 00:53:23,466
谢谢花花的这个好吓人

1082
00:53:24,700 --> 00:53:26,800
这怎么能打成这样的

1083
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:30,800
对面以为稳定爆杀我们了

1084
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,400
我们也以为稳定拿下对面了

1085
00:53:33,766 --> 00:53:35,299
打的真狠啊

1086
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:36,966
晚上好晚上好

1087
00:53:36,966 --> 00:53:38,666
投降输一半

1088
00:53:39,666 --> 00:53:40,999
我不想投降

1089
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:43,800
谢谢我家的工程者的喵喵喵

1090
00:53:43,900 --> 00:53:44,966
感谢阿力哥的

1091
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:46,600
喵

1092
00:53:46,966 --> 00:53:49,499
阿力哥的谢谢谢谢谢谢永初心

1093
00:53:49,500 --> 00:53:50,333
情的打call

1094
00:53:51,300 --> 00:53:52,766
谢谢东方正的

1095
00:53:53,300 --> 00:53:54,733
这个好哎啊不对

1096
00:53:54,733 --> 00:53:55,999
谢谢东方正的粉玫瑰

1097
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:58,100
谢谢花花在睡觉了这个好哎

1098
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:01,100
谢谢永存星辰的送的大炮

1099
00:54:01,100 --> 00:54:03,000
谢谢不老师的牛蛙牛蛙

1100
00:54:06,933 --> 00:54:07,799
家人们

1101
00:54:08,366 --> 00:54:11,666
我第一次见到礼物刷刷屏刷成这样

1102
00:54:11,666 --> 00:54:12,966
我这辈子第一次见

1103
00:54:12,966 --> 00:54:14,599
谢谢留住星辰的牛蛙牛蛙

1104
00:54:14,600 --> 00:54:16,500
谢谢皇家骑士的

1105
00:54:16,500 --> 00:54:18,566
金币金币泡泡糖金币泡泡糖

1106
00:54:18,566 --> 00:54:20,166
金币泡泡糖泡泡糖

1107
00:54:20,166 --> 00:54:22,666
打榜金币金币金币

1108
00:54:23,466 --> 00:54:24,599
谢谢花花在睡觉的

1109
00:54:24,600 --> 00:54:27,133
这个好哎谢谢皇家骑士的金币

1110
00:54:28,466 --> 00:54:30,966
棒棒糖金币泡泡糖打榜

1111
00:54:30,966 --> 00:54:32,699
你们要疯狂应援谢谢

1112
00:54:32,700 --> 00:54:33,900
谢谢阿力改造

1113
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:37,200
谢谢花花在睡觉

1114
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:39,133
两个这个好哎谢谢永驻星辰的两个

1115
00:54:39,133 --> 00:54:39,866
牛蛙牛蛙谢谢

1116
00:54:39,866 --> 00:54:40,699
一般起来收到

1117
00:54:40,700 --> 00:54:41,333
牛蛙牛蛙

1118
00:54:41,333 --> 00:54:43,966
谢谢花花在睡觉的4个这个好哎

1119
00:54:44,133 --> 00:54:45,533
谢谢少女的金币谢谢

1120
00:54:45,533 --> 00:54:46,399
一般起来收到

1121
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:47,200
打call

1122
00:54:47,733 --> 00:54:50,399
大伙我念不过来了谢谢

1123
00:54:50,766 --> 00:54:53,766
少女的二一23456

1124
00:54:53,766 --> 00:54:55,599
六个泡泡糖啊

1125
00:54:56,000 --> 00:54:57,333
七个金币放感谢

1126
00:54:57,333 --> 00:54:59,266
谢谢林上的这个好哎

1127
00:54:59,266 --> 00:55:01,933
我们怎么能谈成这样的谢谢

1128
00:55:02,733 --> 00:55:03,699
花花在睡觉

1129
00:55:03,700 --> 00:55:05,700
六哥这个好哎谢谢林上的打卡

1130
00:55:05,700 --> 00:55:07,866
谢谢恭喜19的我超

1131
00:55:11,133 --> 00:55:14,166
对面要打连胜心也太狠了吧

1132
00:55:18,666 --> 00:55:21,266
记忆了家人们看不顺眼了

1133
00:55:23,333 --> 00:55:23,733
哎

1134
00:55:23,733 --> 00:55:27,199
谢谢花花在睡觉8个这个好哎谢谢19的

1135
00:55:27,266 --> 00:55:30,366
金币泡泡糖谢谢花花在睡觉的一共

1136
00:55:30,733 --> 00:55:33,533
呃16个这个好谢谢送你的幸运星

1137
00:55:35,733 --> 00:55:38,699
谢谢周老爷的两个心愿水晶球

1138
00:55:39,666 --> 00:55:41,533
我们怎么就记了呢

1139
00:55:43,866 --> 00:55:45,999
哎呀我们怎么就

1140
00:55:47,366 --> 00:55:50,299
我对面也太猛了对面嗯

1141
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:54,933
啊不是我蒙了家人们我已经蒙了

1142
00:55:57,300 --> 00:56:00,333
就算就两个水晶球已经去了

1143
00:56:00,566 --> 00:56:04,266
i don't ask for you to change没事没事

1144
00:56:04,266 --> 00:56:05,866
问题不赖家人们

1145
00:56:05,966 --> 00:56:09,799
对面就不是直接上来爆杀一个什么

1146
00:56:09,866 --> 00:56:11,199
哎小电视

1147
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:13,666
一个什么探索者起航之类的

1148
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:16,700
已经很给我们面子了

1149
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:18,300
他们没上来

1150
00:56:18,300 --> 00:56:20,300
他们这估计就是老头

1151
00:56:20,300 --> 00:56:22,800
直接想给刷那个连胜的

1152
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:24,600
刷那个冲日榜的

1153
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:27,733
然后我们比较倒霉碰上了重量级选手

1154
00:56:28,300 --> 00:56:29,566
对不起对不起

1155
00:56:29,566 --> 00:56:31,466
好寺庙好寺庙

1156
00:56:32,266 --> 00:56:34,399
哎你们都从塔菲那偷梗是吧

1157
00:56:34,400 --> 00:56:35,666
好寺庙好寺庙

1158
00:56:37,366 --> 00:56:39,266
我们好事了家人们

1159
00:56:40,066 --> 00:56:41,199
没事没事

1160
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:45,966
我这辈子第一次这么频繁密集的念令

1161
00:56:45,966 --> 00:56:47,666
我谢谢大家的支持

1162
00:56:47,666 --> 00:56:51,166
虽然我们好事了但是我们适得其所

1163
00:56:53,600 --> 00:56:56,500
我们也是适得其所什么除草

1164
00:56:57,200 --> 00:57:00,166
哈哈哈哎主播唱歌我唱了

1165
00:57:00,166 --> 00:57:02,066
我上次唱了你们不懂

1166
00:57:02,500 --> 00:57:03,733
最后唱的不止1千

1167
00:57:03,733 --> 00:57:06,733
他们怕咱们那个也压点往下下

1168
00:57:07,266 --> 00:57:09,699
这就像这个头盲标一样

1169
00:57:09,700 --> 00:57:12,000
拍卖会拍暗标一样

1170
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:15,766
鸭子笑哈哈就把你

1171
00:57:16,600 --> 00:57:18,500
谢谢大伙谢谢大伙

1172
00:57:19,500 --> 00:57:22,800
再打一把再打一把就差了不止1,000

1173
00:57:23,133 --> 00:57:26,533
那我对面那个因为直接我们

1174
00:57:26,766 --> 00:57:30,666
青铜白银这问题一开始没想直接拿下

1175
00:57:31,200 --> 00:57:33,400
要不然今天拿下来应该挺简单的

1176
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:34,200
我感觉去

1177
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:36,533
把福利清了

1178
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:41,666
还挺确实挺福利的

1179
00:57:42,166 --> 00:57:45,899
even our eyes are different colors but we see fine

1180
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:49,133
怎么就苦心人天不负

1181
00:57:50,566 --> 00:57:53,866
哎主播唱个是贝德吗

1182
00:57:53,866 --> 00:57:57,099
可以啊我上次就想就想给你们唱

1183
00:57:57,266 --> 00:57:59,766
然后我我这个前奏都放完了

1184
00:57:59,766 --> 00:58:02,866
直播间还傻愣愣的就啥反应都没有

1185
00:58:02,866 --> 00:58:04,999
我觉得是贝德我还是能唱的吧

1186
00:58:05,166 --> 00:58:06,766
right cause we work so well

1187
00:58:06,900 --> 00:58:08,466
but we don't even know why哎

1188
00:58:08,466 --> 00:58:10,933
这歌有没有那个什么版网易云版的呀

1189
00:58:10,933 --> 00:58:12,966
这好像只有只有那个

1190
00:58:13,766 --> 00:58:16,066
不行没有网易云版的

1191
00:58:18,000 --> 00:58:20,800
没有那个休想逃之夭夭这个二师

1192
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:22,733
兄你能拿下能拿就拿

1193
00:58:23,066 --> 00:58:25,199
我们应该绝杀的时候给他偷了

1194
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:25,933
1,000就下来

1195
00:58:25,933 --> 00:58:26,799
狠话来

1196
00:58:26,900 --> 00:58:29,366
这老爷是想绝杀的时候给对面拿下了

1197
00:58:29,366 --> 00:58:31,399
结果对面也想绝杀咱们1,000

1198
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:35,166
这东西其实就是叔叔的陷阱你懂吗

1199
00:58:35,166 --> 00:58:36,766
就是陷阱啦

1200
00:58:38,366 --> 00:58:41,133
他给你下套让你往里面钻

1201
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:43,466
绝杀对面也上了

1202
00:58:43,466 --> 00:58:44,466
对对面也上

1203
00:58:44,466 --> 00:58:47,499
大家都想绝杀拿下都拿不下来

1204
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:49,733
谢谢抚摸最疯的这个好哎

1205
00:58:49,733 --> 00:58:50,499
谢谢淡福

1206
00:58:50,500 --> 00:58:51,933
淡西天际的扭啊扭啊谢谢

1207
00:58:51,933 --> 00:58:52,766
光之勇者的扭啊

1208
00:58:52,766 --> 00:58:54,399
扭啊谢谢胜利对对花的打call

1209
00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:56,200
谢谢香草加橙汁的扭啊扭啊

1210
00:58:56,666 --> 00:58:58,866
谢谢19的牛蛙牛蛙谢谢青夏的打call

1211
00:58:58,866 --> 00:59:01,499
谢谢浅蓝草天哥的打call

1212
00:59:01,733 --> 00:59:02,966
谢谢浮梦追风的牛蛙

1213
00:59:02,966 --> 00:59:04,533
牛蛙谢谢永出青城的打call

1214
00:59:04,533 --> 00:59:05,733
谢谢多么k拉的打call

1215
00:59:05,733 --> 00:59:07,366
谢谢某某同志的牛蛙牛蛙谢谢星

1216
00:59:07,366 --> 00:59:08,299
辰的i love i love

1217
00:59:08,466 --> 00:59:09,699
谢谢菠萝老师的打call

1218
00:59:09,700 --> 00:59:11,566
谢谢我国7的东方正的

1219
00:59:11,666 --> 00:59:14,666
20个打call谢谢巨白熊的比克拉谢谢

1220
00:59:14,966 --> 00:59:16,899
啊聚白熊的定言定语啊

1221
00:59:16,900 --> 00:59:18,733
应该到谢谢支持谢谢

1222
00:59:18,733 --> 00:59:20,166
汤哥的还来了

1223
00:59:20,300 --> 00:59:21,800
哈哈哈开播了

1224
00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:22,866
开播很久了

1225
00:59:22,866 --> 00:59:24,599
主播的人属实管不住

1226
00:59:25,166 --> 00:59:28,933
不是想赢主播只是想断别人连胜我

1227
00:59:28,933 --> 00:59:30,899
我也是6连胜的时候不打了

1228
00:59:30,900 --> 00:59:33,166
要不然也会碰到很重量级的人

1229
00:59:33,266 --> 00:59:35,299
这把应该能直接绝杀吧

1230
00:59:35,300 --> 00:59:36,900
应该没啥问题

1231
00:59:38,500 --> 00:59:41,500
我也想连胜吃到叔叔的大米啊

1232
00:59:41,500 --> 00:59:44,300
我们什么时候当代主播都可以连胜掐

1233
00:59:44,300 --> 00:59:45,266
叔叔大米了

1234
00:59:45,266 --> 00:59:46,499
加油加油

1235
00:59:46,500 --> 00:59:47,600
家人们我们

1236
00:59:47,700 --> 00:59:50,266
我相信我们早晚有一天能做到的

1237
00:59:50,466 --> 00:59:52,533
今天主播没什么二货啊

1238
00:59:52,533 --> 00:59:54,966
怎么一直说没有二货呀

1239
00:59:55,466 --> 00:59:57,799
今天主播快问快答上了

1240
00:59:58,366 --> 00:59:59,933
我真想去引一波了

1241
00:59:59,933 --> 01:00:00,999
现在都已经

1242
01:00:01,466 --> 01:00:04,199
发挥不出来我那个抽象的劲了

1243
01:00:04,300 --> 01:00:05,200
这什么

1244
01:00:16,366 --> 01:00:18,599
谢谢巨白熊的

1245
01:00:20,066 --> 01:00:20,599
嗯

1246
01:00:20,600 --> 01:00:23,933
谢谢巨白熊的DNA还离开到谢谢谢谢

1247
01:00:27,700 --> 01:00:29,333
哈哈哈

1248
01:00:30,166 --> 01:00:31,966
你们听不听这个

1249
01:00:34,666 --> 01:00:36,599
你喜欢的颜色是紫色

1250
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:39,066
你喜我喜欢的动画是马和沙丘

1251
01:00:39,066 --> 01:00:41,533
model Ka你的名字是米耶咪呀

1252
01:00:41,666 --> 01:00:45,566
我的身份证号是22894962哈哈

1253
01:00:46,600 --> 01:00:49,700
清晨阳光攀过窗沿

1254
01:00:49,700 --> 01:00:52,566
清风温暖了我的被窝

1255
01:00:52,566 --> 01:00:55,366
叫醒没做完的好梦

1256
01:00:55,500 --> 01:01:00,933
起身手忙脚乱匆匆出门怕赶不上终点

1257
01:01:00,933 --> 01:01:03,933
开走的巴士一路狂奔

1258
01:01:04,100 --> 01:01:07,766
铃声快不懂我疲惫眼神

1259
01:01:08,500 --> 01:01:11,166
怪自己作业写的太迟

1260
01:01:11,166 --> 01:01:17,733
闹钟不够大声体温完整程序有点上升

1261
01:01:17,733 --> 01:01:21,466
窗外吹来了夏天的风

1262
01:01:23,700 --> 01:01:27,400
哎我这神秘的真练过了你们不听吗

1263
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:29,166
我这怎么一唱神秘的

1264
01:01:29,500 --> 01:01:31,300
二调通街呀

1265
01:01:31,933 --> 01:01:34,066
这歌本来就是这么唱的

1266
01:01:34,066 --> 01:01:35,333
你们听一下就知道

1267
01:01:35,333 --> 01:01:37,533
这歌本来就是这么唱的的

1268
01:01:37,533 --> 01:01:38,333
豪门

1269
01:01:38,933 --> 01:01:43,666
谢谢大猫叫来匆匆出门怕赶不上天

1270
01:01:43,666 --> 01:01:45,066
谢谢天下的爱来爱来

1271
01:01:45,066 --> 01:01:46,499
谢谢浮梦追风的爱来爱来

1272
01:01:46,500 --> 01:01:47,933
谢谢萌萌同志的打call

1273
01:01:48,766 --> 01:01:50,133
谢谢梦瑶的红包翻翻

1274
01:01:50,133 --> 01:01:53,366
感谢本来就这么唱的你们听哈哈哈

1275
01:01:54,100 --> 01:01:59,933
不顾大学听闻伴着喘息有点声响

1276
01:01:59,933 --> 01:02:03,766
窗外吹来了夏天的风

1277
01:02:04,933 --> 01:02:07,266
夕阳晚照轻佻余晖

1278
01:02:07,266 --> 01:02:09,466
风在背后温暖的吹

1279
01:02:09,466 --> 01:02:11,666
看得见的青春体会

1280
01:02:11,666 --> 01:02:13,999
看不见我究竟是谁

1281
01:02:16,733 --> 01:02:18,066
肯定不是这个呀

1282
01:02:29,333 --> 01:02:30,699
这歌就是这么唱的

1283
01:02:30,700 --> 01:02:31,700
这是原唱

1284
01:02:31,900 --> 01:02:34,266
世界等到我到

1285
01:02:34,566 --> 01:02:36,899
请带上每一朵花

1286
01:02:36,900 --> 01:02:41,266
天赋的博斯拉等待下一个目标

1287
01:02:44,333 --> 01:02:46,699
这歌就是这么唱的

1288
01:02:47,666 --> 01:02:51,399
这是sweet的黑桃影子v圈省钱

1289
01:02:52,966 --> 01:02:54,599
虫草基本黑带来的

1290
01:02:54,600 --> 01:02:56,300
我唱的很还原啊

1291
01:02:58,166 --> 01:02:59,766
我明明唱的很还原

1292
01:03:05,666 --> 01:03:06,799
怎么了呢

1293
01:03:08,533 --> 01:03:10,099
我不够还原吗

1294
01:03:10,100 --> 01:03:11,333
黑桃影怎么了

1295
01:03:11,333 --> 01:03:13,366
你们看不起黑桃影是吧

1296
01:03:13,366 --> 01:03:14,966
我唱的很还原呢

1297
01:03:15,533 --> 01:03:17,699
太还原了不好反黑是吧

1298
01:03:18,900 --> 01:03:20,100
谢谢花花在睡觉

1299
01:03:20,100 --> 01:03:21,066
这个好爱防

1300
01:03:21,066 --> 01:03:22,466
感谢阿力来到

1301
01:03:25,166 --> 01:03:26,199
不够还原

1302
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:27,533
真的假的

1303
01:03:30,333 --> 01:03:31,699
号声还不错

1304
01:03:31,700 --> 01:03:32,766
谢谢我花花在睡觉

1305
01:03:32,766 --> 01:03:33,799
两个这个好哎

1306
01:03:33,800 --> 01:03:36,966
谢谢他点的28朵小花花

1307
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:38,966
我承认了

1308
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:43,066
打黑板黑渣来了这下这下那什么了

1309
01:03:43,900 --> 01:03:45,666
怎么会看不起他比呢

1310
01:03:45,766 --> 01:03:47,466
好似喵好似喵

1311
01:03:49,566 --> 01:03:51,966
我家妈嫁给你怀孕成妇的

1312
01:03:52,766 --> 01:03:56,166
我苦练的是逼的你们都不让我唱

1313
01:03:57,866 --> 01:03:58,266
我

1314
01:03:58,266 --> 01:04:01,399
你们知道我为了唱成那个样子能练成

1315
01:04:01,400 --> 01:04:02,933
练了多久吗

1316
01:04:04,566 --> 01:04:06,299
下了你说你肯定我

1317
01:04:06,300 --> 01:04:08,933
我就不折磨大伙了我不折磨大伙了

1318
01:04:08,933 --> 01:04:10,399
我不想折磨你们

1319
01:04:10,400 --> 01:04:12,166
老折磨你们不太好

1320
01:04:12,333 --> 01:04:15,566
但是绝对我刚才那一段是能识出来的

1321
01:04:15,566 --> 01:04:17,999
因为我我都掌握好了

1322
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:20,366
怎么哈哈哈

1323
01:04:22,700 --> 01:04:25,566
坏了我在楼下疯狂的大笑

1324
01:04:25,566 --> 01:04:28,266
楼上在我听到楼上的声音

1325
01:04:28,700 --> 01:04:29,900
谢谢花花在睡觉的

1326
01:04:29,900 --> 01:04:30,666
这个好iPhone

1327
01:04:30,666 --> 01:04:32,799
感谢哎呀我不唱了我唱完了

1328
01:04:32,933 --> 01:04:34,899
你们要欣赏烟神的御音

1329
01:04:34,900 --> 01:04:37,100
那是没有没有这么简单的

1330
01:04:37,266 --> 01:04:37,999
哈哈哈

1331
01:04:38,000 --> 01:04:40,133
谢谢胜利的对花的牛啊牛啊捧

1332
01:04:40,133 --> 01:04:41,399
感谢阿力改造

1333
01:04:44,200 --> 01:04:46,000
我要欣赏我的预言

1334
01:04:46,700 --> 01:04:49,666
没有那么简单哈哈哈

1335
01:04:49,800 --> 01:04:52,166
主播就是我从别人直播间偷来的红包

1336
01:04:52,166 --> 01:04:52,966
希望你不要嫌弃

1337
01:04:52,966 --> 01:04:54,266
谢谢你偷别人直播间

1338
01:04:54,266 --> 01:04:55,999
别的女人让你抽红包养我

1339
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:57,000
我很开心

1340
01:04:57,400 --> 01:04:58,900
谢谢大树林里的牛蛙牛蛙

1341
01:04:58,900 --> 01:05:00,200
谢谢东方叫的牛蛙牛蛙

1342
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:01,466
谢谢天津的打call

1343
01:05:01,500 --> 01:05:03,533
谢谢勇出星辰的爱了爱了

1344
01:05:03,666 --> 01:05:04,866
谢谢香草的爱了爱了

1345
01:05:04,866 --> 01:05:06,599
谢谢浅草蓝天哥的爱了爱了

1346
01:05:06,600 --> 01:05:08,466
谢谢花花在睡觉的这个好哎

1347
01:05:08,533 --> 01:05:11,966
哈哈哈哈哈音乐放送哈哈哈

1348
01:05:16,666 --> 01:05:18,966
多开心啊你们不开心吗

1349
01:05:18,966 --> 01:05:21,866
我每次听SB的我整个人都可开心了

1350
01:05:22,266 --> 01:05:24,299
主播喜欢这种剧情啊

1351
01:05:27,066 --> 01:05:28,166
什么剧情

1352
01:05:29,133 --> 01:05:31,366
谢谢花花在睡觉这个好哎

1353
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:33,200
阿里个头886

1354
01:05:33,200 --> 01:05:34,566
你干嘛去啊

1355
01:05:48,300 --> 01:05:49,600
谢谢花花在睡觉

1356
01:05:49,600 --> 01:05:51,466
这个行业也挨了一个到

1357
01:05:52,100 --> 01:05:53,500
谢谢谢谢啊

1358
01:05:53,500 --> 01:05:55,166
我们是不是82个间帐啊

1359
01:05:55,166 --> 01:05:57,999
更新一下狠狠的更新一下边上啊

1360
01:05:59,200 --> 01:06:02,600
我忽然发现我写的那个那个不见了

1361
01:06:03,933 --> 01:06:08,133
加班加班9,200小时

1362
01:06:10,766 --> 01:06:12,966
我们都82个晋江了

1363
01:06:13,366 --> 01:06:14,166
嗯

1364
01:06:14,766 --> 01:06:17,599
嗨这个表情我能做的出来这样的嗯

1365
01:06:29,133 --> 01:06:31,333
哎呀你们都不知道我这个

1366
01:06:31,466 --> 01:06:33,333
为了为了让他打成这样

1367
01:06:33,333 --> 01:06:34,799
我的表情有多丑丑

1368
01:06:34,800 --> 01:06:37,800
谢谢钟老爷的啊两个这个好

1369
01:06:37,800 --> 01:06:38,666
谢谢牛啊牛啊

1370
01:06:38,666 --> 01:06:40,333
谢谢花花在睡觉的时候这个好

1371
01:06:40,333 --> 01:06:41,733
哎要睡觉了

1372
01:06:41,733 --> 01:06:43,666
晚安花花摸摸头

1373
01:07:01,066 --> 01:07:01,866
嗯

1374
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:06,533
谢谢花花的睡觉的嗯

1375
01:07:08,700 --> 01:07:10,933
10个这个好也非常感谢

1376
01:07:10,933 --> 01:07:12,666
谢谢周老爷的两个这个好

1377
01:07:12,666 --> 01:07:15,066
也没有的话你就给我来1,000的

1378
01:07:16,366 --> 01:07:17,799
什么王牌军师

1379
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:21,533
哈哈哈我不是王牌军师嗯

1380
01:07:24,133 --> 01:07:26,366
可爱你晚上好晚上好

1381
01:07:42,700 --> 01:07:44,366
今天是几点上播的

1382
01:07:50,166 --> 01:07:52,166
忘了哈哈哈忘了

1383
01:07:52,166 --> 01:07:53,933
这怎么算加班时间啊

1384
01:07:53,933 --> 01:07:54,966
算不明白了

1385
01:07:55,133 --> 01:07:56,333
主播那个现

1386
01:07:56,333 --> 01:07:59,499
场礼物的空白出签是用来干什么的

1387
01:07:59,500 --> 01:08:02,700
那个是我我额外送给你们的

1388
01:08:02,700 --> 01:08:03,533
就比如说

1389
01:08:03,733 --> 01:08:06,799
你们如果想写点什么东西的话

1390
01:08:07,300 --> 01:08:09,866
但是又舍不得用我那个

1391
01:08:11,500 --> 01:08:13,266
如果你们舍不得的话就

1392
01:08:13,266 --> 01:08:16,066
可以那个什么抽签是什么呀

1393
01:08:16,066 --> 01:08:17,599
就是写了你的名字

1394
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:19,700
我明明给你写了两张了

1395
01:08:19,966 --> 01:08:21,499
其实我给你写了4张

1396
01:08:21,500 --> 01:08:24,566
但是我两张写废了就留在我自己手里

1397
01:08:26,066 --> 01:08:28,066
谢谢香草的喵喵

1398
01:08:28,666 --> 01:08:31,133
阿里嘎达喵喵

1399
01:08:31,566 --> 01:08:33,366
好四喵好四喵

1400
01:08:33,766 --> 01:08:35,566
我现在一喵就能想起那个

1401
01:08:35,566 --> 01:08:37,166
好四喵好四喵

1402
01:08:38,800 --> 01:08:40,900
谢谢胜利的对花的牛蛙牛蛙

1403
01:08:40,900 --> 01:08:42,166
谢谢胜利的牛蛙牛蛙

1404
01:08:42,166 --> 01:08:43,333
谢谢东方正的打call

1405
01:08:43,333 --> 01:08:44,966
非常感谢阿力哥的

1406
01:08:45,166 --> 01:08:46,999
我等等我等等我给你写喽

1407
01:08:47,000 --> 01:08:47,800
天气

1408
01:08:48,500 --> 01:08:49,300
铁龙

1409
01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:55,666
我给他姐换了一个小水塔

1410
01:08:56,366 --> 01:08:57,166
嗯

1411
01:08:58,133 --> 01:09:01,099
画了一个小水塔但是画的不太好看

1412
01:09:01,366 --> 01:09:02,699
希望不要嫌弃

1413
01:09:02,700 --> 01:09:04,866
可以用来给别的女孩子写情书吗

1414
01:09:04,866 --> 01:09:05,499
那他

1415
01:09:05,500 --> 01:09:08,200
他要是问你米呀米呀是谁呀的时候

1416
01:09:08,500 --> 01:09:09,866
不要问我

1417
01:09:10,266 --> 01:09:11,499
我不能负责

1418
01:09:11,566 --> 01:09:14,133
我我你可以用来给但是呢

1419
01:09:14,133 --> 01:09:15,566
我不能负责是不是

1420
01:09:15,566 --> 01:09:17,533
米呀米呀我等等我等等

1421
01:09:17,533 --> 01:09:18,666
我给你钱了

1422
01:09:18,933 --> 01:09:19,999
我给你写了

1423
01:09:20,000 --> 01:09:21,466
我绝对给你写了

1424
01:09:24,400 --> 01:09:26,366
你们只是没收到吧

1425
01:09:26,366 --> 01:09:28,199
请你来首生日快乐

1426
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:31,000
啊生日快乐

1427
01:09:31,800 --> 01:09:33,066
谁过生日

1428
01:09:33,066 --> 01:09:36,199
哥们想听喵喵叫你就哈哈哈

1429
01:09:36,200 --> 01:09:40,200
谢谢肥狼旋风披的关注和贝克拉

1430
01:09:40,200 --> 01:09:41,600
非常感谢你

1431
01:09:42,066 --> 01:09:43,666
肥狼旋风披

1432
01:09:45,366 --> 01:09:46,666
你你你是

1433
01:09:46,866 --> 01:09:49,799
你是黄佳琪吗喵

1434
01:09:52,500 --> 01:09:54,200
肥桃旋风披

1435
01:09:55,166 --> 01:09:55,999
嗯嗯

1436
01:09:56,800 --> 01:09:58,166
生日快乐

1437
01:09:58,166 --> 01:09:59,666
还要过生日吗

1438
01:10:11,266 --> 01:10:13,599
那不是塔菲本市的成名主吗

1439
01:10:13,600 --> 01:10:16,400
是吗你是王喜顺的光

1440
01:10:16,400 --> 01:10:21,166
哈哈哈你是王喜顺的光是什么鬼啊

1441
01:10:21,166 --> 01:10:22,333
欢迎广杰

1442
01:10:22,566 --> 01:10:23,566
好久不见

1443
01:10:24,066 --> 01:10:26,133
happy birthday to you

1444
01:10:26,133 --> 01:10:27,966
好耶喵欢迎

1445
01:10:27,966 --> 01:10:29,666
杨先生晚上好

1446
01:10:29,666 --> 01:10:34,533
happy birthday my dear friend happy birthday to you

1447
01:10:34,566 --> 01:10:37,533
放个纯粮版的不是天天说嗨嗨的

1448
01:10:37,566 --> 01:10:39,699
happy birthday to you

1449
01:10:39,866 --> 01:10:42,099
happy还好我是怪人吃

1450
01:10:44,200 --> 01:10:46,533
冬雪莲都有总督啊

1451
01:10:46,533 --> 01:10:48,066
我却没有

1452
01:10:48,100 --> 01:10:49,766
我的总督马上就要掉

1453
01:10:49,766 --> 01:10:52,133
了谢谢菠萝老师的爱了爱了房

1454
01:10:52,133 --> 01:10:53,499
感谢阿力哥哥

1455
01:10:57,300 --> 01:10:59,666
等收到了秋千我要狠狠的收藏

1456
01:10:59,666 --> 01:11:01,299
我要狠狠的卖他去

1457
01:11:01,466 --> 01:11:02,266
嘿嘿

1458
01:11:02,566 --> 01:11:05,499
谢谢宝看来是假的除草机

1459
01:11:05,500 --> 01:11:07,333
我还真是假的除草机

1460
01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:10,200
我只知道那个他费劲唱

1461
01:11:10,333 --> 01:11:11,933
谢谢菠萝老师的爱了爱了

1462
01:11:11,933 --> 01:11:14,066
谢谢战夫战7天津的牛蛙牛蛙

1463
01:11:14,066 --> 01:11:15,566
谢谢香草的牛蛙牛蛙

1464
01:11:15,566 --> 01:11:16,366
奥利给到

1465
01:11:16,933 --> 01:11:20,466
我要真就发个不停啊一直发红包是吧

1466
01:11:21,200 --> 01:11:27,100
happy birthday my dear friend happy birthday to you

1467
01:11:30,133 --> 01:11:32,299
什么新型加班机器

1468
01:11:38,966 --> 01:11:42,199
谢谢王8152472的牛蛙牛蛙房

1469
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:43,900
感谢有人把红包藏了

1470
01:11:43,900 --> 01:11:45,500
有人把红包藏了

1471
01:11:45,500 --> 01:11:46,800
我不说是谁

1472
01:11:48,166 --> 01:11:51,133
有路人偷吃我的贡品

1473
01:11:54,166 --> 01:11:56,266
不可以偷吃我的贡品

1474
01:11:56,566 --> 01:11:57,933
听到了没有

1475
01:11:58,866 --> 01:11:59,666
huh

1476
01:12:07,900 --> 01:12:10,100
一个红包只要两块钱好便宜哦

1477
01:12:10,100 --> 01:12:11,766
谢谢周老爷的打扣饭

1478
01:12:11,766 --> 01:12:12,699
感谢阿力哥

1479
01:12:12,700 --> 01:12:13,500
这

1480
01:12:13,966 --> 01:12:16,466
这么便宜还要吃我们草

1481
01:12:16,533 --> 01:12:18,599
打给别的女人了

1482
01:12:18,766 --> 01:12:22,466
嗯今天我我可以把你们干碎了

1483
01:12:22,466 --> 01:12:26,133
因为我下午我下播了之后要直接学习

1484
01:12:26,400 --> 01:12:28,766
我可以把那个PPT贴在屏幕上面

1485
01:12:28,766 --> 01:12:30,333
然后我就直接开始学习

1486
01:12:30,766 --> 01:12:32,966
你们就负责给我狠狠的发红包

1487
01:12:32,966 --> 01:12:33,933
一想到哎

1488
01:12:33,933 --> 01:12:36,866
我学习一个小时还能赚40块钱

1489
01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:40,166
我整个人都非常的心动又开心

1490
01:12:40,166 --> 01:12:42,266
但是呢其实我没有什么收益的

1491
01:12:42,266 --> 01:12:44,199
家人们你们发红包给我

1492
01:12:44,200 --> 01:12:46,200
其实我我没有多少钱

1493
01:12:47,533 --> 01:12:48,999
为什么没有大一点的红包

1494
01:12:49,000 --> 01:12:50,500
剩女可以发最大的

1495
01:12:50,766 --> 01:12:52,533
嗯发最大的藏起来

1496
01:12:52,533 --> 01:12:53,966
打给粉色姻缘

1497
01:12:53,966 --> 01:12:55,099
哈哈哈

1498
01:12:56,100 --> 01:12:57,800
粉色姻缘是什么呀

1499
01:12:57,800 --> 01:13:00,133
我可不可以是粉色猫人呢

1500
01:13:00,166 --> 01:13:01,466
要直播学习吗

1501
01:13:01,466 --> 01:13:02,766
后面如果你想的话

1502
01:13:02,766 --> 01:13:05,199
你的PPT上有学校logo吗啊对哦

1503
01:13:14,366 --> 01:13:15,299
没有没事

1504
01:13:15,300 --> 01:13:18,166
这老师是个懒狗不愿往PPT上贴logo

1505
01:13:18,166 --> 01:13:19,933
啥也没有就就白纸

1506
01:13:20,133 --> 01:13:21,566
问题不在家人们

1507
01:13:23,000 --> 01:13:26,333
没没有没有这种东西啊没发现

1508
01:13:30,933 --> 01:13:32,766
啥都没有好

1509
01:13:35,333 --> 01:13:36,699
这个绝杀好难啊

1510
01:13:36,700 --> 01:13:37,766
为什么这么难

1511
01:13:40,400 --> 01:13:43,366
刚才发了个大的钻都没领完

1512
01:13:44,700 --> 01:13:46,266
坏了这怎么

1513
01:13:46,333 --> 01:13:49,399
我们直播间的人已经连红包都凑不齐

1514
01:13:49,400 --> 01:13:50,200
了

1515
01:13:50,300 --> 01:13:52,966
你可以狠狠的刷400个红包去睡觉是吧

1516
01:13:52,966 --> 01:13:53,899
你好狠

1517
01:13:54,200 --> 01:13:56,100
这个红包为啥不能自定义内容啊

1518
01:13:56,100 --> 01:13:57,766
我也想要自定义内容来着

1519
01:13:57,766 --> 01:13:59,333
谢谢各位师姐我的两个牛蛙

1520
01:13:59,333 --> 01:14:00,466
牛蛙非常感谢

1521
01:14:00,900 --> 01:14:02,200
谢谢郑老爷的幸运石

1522
01:14:02,200 --> 01:14:03,733
粉玫瑰幸运石哈利盖索

1523
01:14:03,733 --> 01:14:06,299
主播这偷钱连红包都领不完

1524
01:14:06,733 --> 01:14:08,299
来领红包呀

1525
01:14:09,133 --> 01:14:12,966
来一起领红啊

1526
01:14:12,966 --> 01:14:14,699
谢谢郑老爷的冰可乐

1527
01:14:14,700 --> 01:14:17,733
郑老爷想不想可以自定义一下我们直

1528
01:14:17,733 --> 01:14:19,666
播间抽冰可乐送的东西

1529
01:14:20,666 --> 01:14:23,533
你咋出了两罐呢你咋哇

1530
01:14:25,066 --> 01:14:28,333
你十连出了两罐冰可乐你好狠

1531
01:14:28,700 --> 01:14:30,966
谢谢呃郑老爷的

1532
01:14:30,966 --> 01:14:33,366
幸运石幸运石粉玫瑰粉玫瑰冰可乐

1533
01:14:33,366 --> 01:14:35,733
幸运石粉玫瑰幸运石冰可乐

1534
01:14:35,900 --> 01:14:37,266
谢谢天津的牛蛙牛蛙

1535
01:14:37,266 --> 01:14:38,533
谢谢天下的牛蛙牛蛙

1536
01:14:38,533 --> 01:14:39,699
谢谢林迪的爱来爱了

1537
01:14:39,700 --> 01:14:41,300
谢谢杨先生的爱来爱了

1538
01:14:41,500 --> 01:14:42,566
谢谢某某同志的打call

1539
01:14:42,566 --> 01:14:43,599
谢谢梦瑶的爱了爱了

1540
01:14:43,600 --> 01:14:45,133
非常感谢阿力哥的

1541
01:14:45,200 --> 01:14:46,466
两个同两个

1542
01:14:46,466 --> 01:14:47,866
可乐你快死吧

1543
01:14:49,600 --> 01:14:51,533
你让我快死吧干什么

1544
01:14:51,900 --> 01:14:55,366
来一起拆红包呀

1545
01:14:58,866 --> 01:14:59,899
我这么厉害

1546
01:15:00,166 --> 01:15:01,299
一般来说

1547
01:15:01,466 --> 01:15:05,366
不是说那个在在直播间里面

1548
01:15:05,500 --> 01:15:08,000
他们开盒子的话那个礼物

1549
01:15:08,000 --> 01:15:11,300
除了除了最高档的那个之外

1550
01:15:11,700 --> 01:15:14,800
冰可乐应该也会有送一点东西的

1551
01:15:14,800 --> 01:15:16,466
一般来说是什么呢

1552
01:15:16,966 --> 01:15:18,199
是什么来的

1553
01:15:18,466 --> 01:15:20,566
写ID音声之类的

1554
01:15:20,566 --> 01:15:22,166
但这玩意本来应该也有啊

1555
01:15:22,166 --> 01:15:23,566
也有这些东西的

1556
01:15:24,066 --> 01:15:25,299
谢谢周老爷的打call

1557
01:15:25,300 --> 01:15:26,666
谢谢咕噜咕噜的打call

1558
01:15:26,666 --> 01:15:28,133
谢谢咕噜咕噜的两个牛蛙

1559
01:15:28,133 --> 01:15:29,533
牛蛙饭感谢阿力哥的

1560
01:15:29,533 --> 01:15:31,533
我可以去学习一下他们

1561
01:15:31,533 --> 01:15:33,133
等我下播了之后去

1562
01:15:33,500 --> 01:15:35,100
偷偷的学习一下他们

1563
01:15:35,466 --> 01:15:39,366
最大的红包要200块啊要这么多吗

1564
01:15:42,366 --> 01:15:43,566
就送冰可乐

1565
01:15:43,566 --> 01:15:46,066
你可以啊一罐冰可乐

1566
01:15:46,700 --> 01:15:49,933
现实中那个一箱冰可乐是吧

1567
01:15:54,666 --> 01:15:55,999
啊对我的一箱可乐

1568
01:15:56,000 --> 01:15:57,700
谁抽到了我的一箱可乐

1569
01:15:57,700 --> 01:16:00,266
哎怎么不找我来折现或者是

1570
01:16:00,666 --> 01:16:03,399
淘宝天地执念谁写的来着

1571
01:16:11,000 --> 01:16:12,800
b站这个冰可乐是可可乐

1572
01:16:12,800 --> 01:16:14,400
我就喜欢我就喜欢

1573
01:16:14,400 --> 01:16:15,300
可口可乐

1574
01:16:18,400 --> 01:16:21,400
原味碳酸饮料天猫超市

1575
01:16:22,333 --> 01:16:25,166
迷你罐200毫升12罐

1576
01:16:25,166 --> 01:16:27,299
整箱可口可乐一件装

1577
01:16:27,400 --> 01:16:29,166
进行一个两件的购买

1578
01:16:29,166 --> 01:16:32,166
然后然后那个送给郑老爷

1579
01:16:32,166 --> 01:16:34,499
哈哈哈这啥歌

1580
01:16:34,500 --> 01:16:36,566
喜欢这个声音我看一下

1581
01:16:38,933 --> 01:16:40,666
活着歌手是

1582
01:16:45,066 --> 01:16:45,899
我也服了我

1583
01:16:45,900 --> 01:16:46,966
真的假的

1584
01:16:47,400 --> 01:16:50,366
谢谢本场PK加入我方获胜

1585
01:16:50,366 --> 01:16:51,666
精益达成四连胜

1586
01:16:51,666 --> 01:16:53,166
感谢郑老爷为胜利多谢更新

1587
01:16:53,166 --> 01:16:53,999
谢谢郑老爷

1588
01:16:54,000 --> 01:16:54,800
应该的

1589
01:16:55,600 --> 01:16:58,600
小布丁跟那个可乐还有旺仔牛奶

1590
01:16:58,600 --> 01:16:59,933
我之前都抽过耶

1591
01:17:03,333 --> 01:17:04,299
之前抽的

1592
01:17:04,300 --> 01:17:06,400
你添了天选啊你添了

1593
01:17:07,566 --> 01:17:09,566
哎你们天天选的时候

1594
01:17:09,566 --> 01:17:11,799
b站都没有给我提示了吗

1595
01:17:11,800 --> 01:17:13,466
我都不知道你们天了

1596
01:17:13,600 --> 01:17:14,533
我没收到提示

1597
01:17:14,533 --> 01:17:17,566
我一直以为是你们都都没没没天

1598
01:17:17,933 --> 01:17:19,699
原来你们都天了

1599
01:17:20,866 --> 01:17:24,366
香草没添哈尔也没添兔子也没添

1600
01:17:24,733 --> 01:17:25,699
梦瑶添了

1601
01:17:25,700 --> 01:17:27,733
嗯我看到了梦瑶这个添了

1602
01:17:28,566 --> 01:17:29,466
截个图

1603
01:17:30,866 --> 01:17:32,366
剩女的我领完了

1604
01:17:32,733 --> 01:17:34,366
咕噜咕噜的添了

1605
01:17:38,566 --> 01:17:40,766
兔子的红包也没有领

1606
01:17:40,966 --> 01:17:44,599
三周的红包也没领花花的立牌也没添

1607
01:17:44,866 --> 01:17:46,666
娘娘的立牌也没添

1608
01:17:47,000 --> 01:17:49,000
圣光的立牌添了

1609
01:17:50,400 --> 01:17:51,966
这这添了的

1610
01:17:51,966 --> 01:17:54,066
这个比例稍微有点小低

1611
01:17:54,066 --> 01:17:57,333
家人们有点低不是特别高

1612
01:18:05,733 --> 01:18:06,533
喝口可乐

1613
01:18:06,533 --> 01:18:08,466
不喝我就要喝可口可乐

1614
01:18:08,466 --> 01:18:11,133
晚上好喜欢我就来听看我

1615
01:18:11,466 --> 01:18:12,333
好性感的

1616
01:18:12,333 --> 01:18:13,766
你就喜欢这个是吧

1617
01:18:21,500 --> 01:18:22,933
这首歌是谁写的

1618
01:18:22,933 --> 01:18:25,166
吐西歌手叫吐西

1619
01:18:25,966 --> 01:18:26,766
嗯

1620
01:18:28,866 --> 01:18:30,199
可以折现呢

1621
01:18:33,066 --> 01:18:34,133
晚上好

1622
01:18:34,900 --> 01:18:37,766
嗯 865455是什么意思

1623
01:18:37,766 --> 01:18:39,066
谢谢梦瑶的牛蛙牛蛙

1624
01:18:39,066 --> 01:18:40,199
谢谢送你的爱来了

1625
01:18:40,200 --> 01:18:41,766
谢谢杨先生的爱来了

1626
01:18:41,900 --> 01:18:43,200
谢谢菠萝老师来来了

1627
01:18:43,200 --> 01:18:45,300
谢谢逛街的打客房感谢

1628
01:18:46,200 --> 01:18:47,066
我也没中火

1629
01:18:47,066 --> 01:18:49,366
不天都没人送我谢谢哈尔的红包啊

1630
01:18:49,366 --> 01:18:51,099
离开这谢谢谢谢

1631
01:18:51,100 --> 01:18:51,733
我不知道

1632
01:18:51,733 --> 01:18:53,666
天呐你发钱说一声OK

1633
01:18:54,133 --> 01:18:55,333
这是在干啥

1634
01:18:56,000 --> 01:18:58,400
大伙都在拆红包啊

1635
01:18:58,600 --> 01:19:00,066
i hit it like he got more

1636
01:19:00,133 --> 01:19:01,299
he should not get it like

1637
01:19:06,933 --> 01:19:09,666
he got some more

1638
01:19:09,900 --> 01:19:11,533
我也觉得这首歌挺好听

1639
01:19:11,533 --> 01:19:13,133
无情的谢谢机器

1640
01:19:14,566 --> 01:19:16,333
我也想给你们发

1641
01:19:16,466 --> 01:19:19,566
但是好像自己不能送自己礼物哎

1642
01:19:20,266 --> 01:19:21,666
我不信这我也抽不了

1643
01:19:21,666 --> 01:19:24,333
主播上播就是谢谢谢到下播啊

1644
01:19:24,333 --> 01:19:26,599
我终于谢谢大家让我实现了梦想

1645
01:19:26,666 --> 01:19:29,133
上播谢礼物谢S1谢到下播

1646
01:19:30,466 --> 01:19:33,966
哎呀谢谢你们让我实现了我的梦想

1647
01:19:35,700 --> 01:19:37,800
我有主播的转账记录

1648
01:19:37,800 --> 01:19:40,333
上面还有主播的微信名

1649
01:19:41,700 --> 01:19:43,933
你怎么不说还有主播的手机号

1650
01:19:43,933 --> 01:19:45,966
跟主播的身份证号码呀

1651
01:19:54,266 --> 01:19:56,566
哪一天我们的天亮也可以上播谢礼物

1652
01:19:56,566 --> 01:19:57,266
谢谢下播

1653
01:19:57,266 --> 01:19:58,933
主播偷偷换一个帽子

1654
01:19:59,333 --> 01:20:00,899
那怎么了吗

1655
01:20:01,133 --> 01:20:04,366
有梦想都是了不起的

1656
01:20:05,333 --> 01:20:08,166
有梦想怎么不行啊哼

1657
01:20:10,866 --> 01:20:13,733
我的微信名又没关系

1658
01:20:13,900 --> 01:20:16,333
我微信名让你们知道也没啥关系

1659
01:20:16,333 --> 01:20:19,466
你们已经有人知道我微信叫啥名了哈

1660
01:20:19,966 --> 01:20:22,766
哈哈特别中外的一个名字啊

1661
01:20:22,766 --> 01:20:25,333
然后导致我到这边之后

1662
01:20:25,333 --> 01:20:27,266
加一些同学的好友

1663
01:20:27,266 --> 01:20:30,166
然后人家不知道咋叫我就会喊我微信

1664
01:20:31,966 --> 01:20:35,899
叫起舞我的微信叫起舞哈哈哈

1665
01:20:37,333 --> 01:20:39,699
然后你一跟人家说我叫起舞哎

1666
01:20:39,700 --> 01:20:42,200
人家叫你也想起舞吗

1667
01:20:42,966 --> 01:20:45,366
还有人人你是不是中二病啊

1668
01:20:49,166 --> 01:20:50,333
主播加个微

1669
01:20:58,166 --> 01:21:00,799
我的梦想是迁建的毛育老师们

1670
01:21:00,800 --> 01:21:02,533
等主播什么时候有的是你

1671
01:21:02,533 --> 01:21:04,866
然后就去找毛育老师狠狠的画画

1672
01:21:05,466 --> 01:21:07,799
其实我也想找宋伟老师狠狠的画

1673
01:21:07,800 --> 01:21:08,600
批来着

1674
01:21:10,100 --> 01:21:11,700
主播掐个微狠狠的掐

1675
01:21:11,700 --> 01:21:13,000
什么时候实现下一个梦想

1676
01:21:13,000 --> 01:21:15,166
下一个梦想就是我们情人节之前摆件

1677
01:21:15,166 --> 01:21:17,899
然后我换一套新的衣服跟你们约会

1678
01:21:17,900 --> 01:21:20,766
哈哈哈要不是约会吧

1679
01:21:20,766 --> 01:21:22,766
嗯挺好你也要起舞吗

1680
01:21:22,766 --> 01:21:23,933
跟轻舞飞扬挺像

1681
01:21:23,933 --> 01:21:24,733
欢迎贺姐

1682
01:21:24,733 --> 01:21:25,899
新年好贺姐

1683
01:21:27,366 --> 01:21:28,866
大猫轻舞飞扬

1684
01:21:28,866 --> 01:21:31,466
小猫起舞他飞扬我起舞是吧七

1685
01:21:31,466 --> 01:21:33,466
夕沙里不及我半分

1686
01:21:33,533 --> 01:21:35,666
谢谢胜利的对花的牛蛙牛蛙谢谢梦瑶

1687
01:21:35,666 --> 01:21:36,866
的大咖谢谢香草

1688
01:21:36,866 --> 01:21:38,933
牛蛙牛蛙谢谢清一下的这个好哎

1689
01:21:39,166 --> 01:21:40,333
谢谢广杰的牛蛙牛蛙

1690
01:21:40,333 --> 01:21:43,266
谢谢红梦追风的这个好爱谢谢王八1522

1691
01:21:43,266 --> 01:21:44,699
4 72的打call

1692
01:21:44,900 --> 01:21:46,266
谢谢某某同志的牛蛙牛蛙

1693
01:21:46,266 --> 01:21:46,966
谢谢永出新

1694
01:21:46,966 --> 01:21:48,666
城的打call谢谢菠萝老师的打call

1695
01:21:48,666 --> 01:21:50,599
谢谢诺海的牛蛙牛蛙

1696
01:21:50,900 --> 01:21:51,800
欢迎我小伟

1697
01:21:53,700 --> 01:21:55,566
哎呀没关系啊

1698
01:21:55,566 --> 01:21:56,966
早晚的我都是要知道

1699
01:21:56,966 --> 01:21:59,333
因为我发奖只能用这个发

1700
01:22:04,166 --> 01:22:07,666
高速神言我最擅长的就是高速神言

1701
01:22:07,666 --> 01:22:10,399
你们可能不太了解主播高速神言的含

1702
01:22:10,400 --> 01:22:11,200
金量

1703
01:22:11,800 --> 01:22:13,166
谢谢张老爷的这个好哎

1704
01:22:13,166 --> 01:22:14,899
谢谢我全然皇家骑士的牛啊牛啊

1705
01:22:14,900 --> 01:22:17,200
主播你们忘了以前高速神言就是

1706
01:22:17,300 --> 01:22:18,900
有东西能说的时候

1707
01:22:18,900 --> 01:22:20,533
然后有话题一直能说的时候

1708
01:22:20,533 --> 01:22:22,299
主播那个语速很快的

1709
01:22:22,333 --> 01:22:22,666
其实

1710
01:22:22,666 --> 01:22:24,766
我想跟你们分享一下最近的事情啊

1711
01:22:24,766 --> 01:22:27,366
但是有一些你们可能有点听不太明白

1712
01:22:27,400 --> 01:22:27,933
比如说

1713
01:22:27,933 --> 01:22:30,566
最近如果你们在b站打开哔哩哔哩

1714
01:22:30,566 --> 01:22:33,499
在视频搜索这一栏里面打出

1715
01:22:33,933 --> 01:22:36,666
live to d模型展示这几个字的话

1716
01:22:36,666 --> 01:22:40,099
你就会发现有一个视频在下面特别的

1717
01:22:40,333 --> 01:22:41,499
就直接会推荐

1718
01:22:41,500 --> 01:22:44,166
就是那个灵活的嘴皮的那个视频

1719
01:22:44,300 --> 01:22:46,000
宪范老师的那个视频

1720
01:22:46,166 --> 01:22:48,266
那个例会是孙伟老师画的

1721
01:22:48,266 --> 01:22:50,466
然后模型是宪范老师画的那个

1722
01:22:50,600 --> 01:22:53,600
那个播放量已经61万了

1723
01:22:53,600 --> 01:22:54,333
我就知道

1724
01:22:54,333 --> 01:22:57,266
谢发老师早晚有一天会成为这个

1725
01:22:57,266 --> 01:22:59,799
人人瞩目的待模型师的

1726
01:23:00,600 --> 01:23:03,366
尤其是再加上孙伟老师的神级原话

1727
01:23:03,366 --> 01:23:05,766
简直就让人都可以都可以怦然心动

1728
01:23:05,766 --> 01:23:07,266
我当年还说过

1729
01:23:07,300 --> 01:23:10,266
我换模型之后想约宪法老师的这

1730
01:23:10,266 --> 01:23:13,066
估计已经比我刚知道这个老师的时候

1731
01:23:13,200 --> 01:23:14,866
翻了一倍多的价格了

1732
01:23:14,866 --> 01:23:17,566
太贵了档期又太慢了

1733
01:23:17,566 --> 01:23:19,999
我已经跟他无缘了

1734
01:23:24,000 --> 01:23:26,666
都被主播忘了开PK还真是

1735
01:23:27,000 --> 01:23:28,700
谢谢将来的小哥这个好哎

1736
01:23:28,700 --> 01:23:31,933
谢谢将来的三个小花花啊

1737
01:23:32,300 --> 01:23:34,933
我还以为主播为群猫卖了一半的

1738
01:23:34,933 --> 01:23:36,399
名字叫飞舞

1739
01:23:37,600 --> 01:23:39,700
你才是飞舞呢

1740
01:23:41,500 --> 01:23:45,066
谢谢w配的这个好爱谢谢天津的打call

1741
01:23:45,066 --> 01:23:46,299
和你玩你玩非常感谢

1742
01:23:46,300 --> 01:23:48,766
现在已经没有产生烟神高兴的程度了

1743
01:23:48,766 --> 01:23:52,066
我们忘记了过去然后不断的向前看

1744
01:23:52,100 --> 01:23:54,100
这何尝不是一种好事呢

1745
01:23:56,166 --> 01:23:58,366
谢谢哈尔的两个打call非常感谢

1746
01:23:58,366 --> 01:23:59,766
谁不要妈了

1747
01:24:00,800 --> 01:24:02,700
嗯哈哈哈

1748
01:24:03,266 --> 01:24:05,599
谢谢哈尔的爱了爱了爱了一个

1749
01:24:05,600 --> 01:24:07,733
这孩子想要个抱枕

1750
01:24:08,100 --> 01:24:09,666
怎么连续上线吗

1751
01:24:09,666 --> 01:24:12,099
直接把那个在微信公众号里面

1752
01:24:12,100 --> 01:24:12,900
把他取消

1753
01:24:12,900 --> 01:24:14,266
如果你是iOS的话

1754
01:24:14,266 --> 01:24:16,999
在微信公众号那个付费记录里取消

1755
01:24:17,000 --> 01:24:19,000
如果你是安卓的话在那个

1756
01:24:19,200 --> 01:24:20,766
呃后台的地方取消

1757
01:24:20,766 --> 01:24:22,133
连续包月就可以

1758
01:24:26,400 --> 01:24:29,366
好像被被被对面狠狠的绝杀时刻

1759
01:24:30,566 --> 01:24:31,366
记了

1760
01:24:32,666 --> 01:24:33,666
打完这把不打了

1761
01:24:33,666 --> 01:24:34,266
家人们

1762
01:24:34,266 --> 01:24:37,399
今天今天好像差不多就打到这里了

1763
01:24:54,300 --> 01:24:57,133
我操谢谢海尔的

1764
01:24:58,200 --> 01:24:59,133
低言低语

1765
01:24:59,133 --> 01:25:01,799
谢谢少女的幸运石幸运石

1766
01:25:01,800 --> 01:25:03,366
5个粉玫瑰一罐

1767
01:25:03,400 --> 01:25:04,266
不是不是

1768
01:25:04,300 --> 01:25:06,300
谢谢咕噜咕噜的5个粉玫瑰一罐

1769
01:25:06,300 --> 01:25:07,866
冰可乐 4个幸运石

1770
01:25:07,866 --> 01:25:10,666
哎不打了不打了停停停我先把它取消

1771
01:25:10,733 --> 01:25:13,799
谢谢少女的粉玫瑰幸运石粉玫瑰我操

1772
01:25:15,400 --> 01:25:18,300
我居然打赢了还有这种好事

1773
01:25:19,733 --> 01:25:21,366
好痛我操

1774
01:25:22,100 --> 01:25:24,366
我算是理解为啥他们打他

1775
01:25:24,366 --> 01:25:28,066
打PK都喜欢偷塔了好爽啊

1776
01:25:30,100 --> 01:25:34,500
虽然这样不太仁义不仁不义但是

1777
01:25:35,333 --> 01:25:37,966
但是好开心啊怎么回事

1778
01:25:39,100 --> 01:25:40,166
谢谢大家的支

1779
01:25:40,166 --> 01:25:43,299
持谢谢我们狠狠的5连胜一下啊

1780
01:25:47,066 --> 01:25:48,066
爱你个头

1781
01:25:48,166 --> 01:25:49,366
谢谢谢谢

1782
01:25:51,500 --> 01:25:54,133
主播有一种狠狠的丰收的喜悦

1783
01:25:54,133 --> 01:25:56,099
谢谢东蒙克拉的牛啊牛啊爱

1784
01:25:56,100 --> 01:25:57,933
恋爱的光阴破败王

1785
01:25:59,733 --> 01:26:01,266
行妾预兆是吧

1786
01:26:01,266 --> 01:26:03,533
我们就把塔狠狠的偷了

1787
01:26:04,300 --> 01:26:06,933
偷的时候能不能跟大伙商量一下

1788
01:26:06,933 --> 01:26:08,766
那我也不能跟大伙说

1789
01:26:08,766 --> 01:26:10,599
哎呀主播快要进了

1790
01:26:10,600 --> 01:26:12,466
大伙帮主播守一下塔吧

1791
01:26:12,466 --> 01:26:14,366
我也不知道你们要帮我呀

1792
01:26:14,366 --> 01:26:15,866
我都做好输的准备了

1793
01:26:15,866 --> 01:26:17,866
所以所以谢谢你们

1794
01:26:19,500 --> 01:26:21,700
我以为我都要进了呢

1795
01:26:22,800 --> 01:26:25,966
为什么不是国语赛拉斯主播驾驭不了

1796
01:26:25,966 --> 01:26:28,099
驾驭不了那个偷来的东西了

1797
01:26:28,100 --> 01:26:28,966
一次是

1798
01:26:37,133 --> 01:26:40,866
20号过新年呀31号

1799
01:26:40,933 --> 01:26:45,733
我30号有一个小测试31号有一个炸弹

1800
01:26:46,300 --> 01:26:48,533
然后一号有一个

1801
01:26:50,333 --> 01:26:53,733
线下的测试2号有一个线上的测试

1802
01:26:57,800 --> 01:26:59,100
我也想好多呀

1803
01:26:59,100 --> 01:27:02,666
我怎么有这么多的事情要做呀

1804
01:27:02,666 --> 01:27:04,266
我不想学习

1805
01:27:04,500 --> 01:27:08,166
我想hi everybody will here we are

1806
01:27:10,866 --> 01:27:11,666
这是我

1807
01:27:11,733 --> 01:27:14,733
我这我这课自动开始播放了呢

1808
01:27:15,733 --> 01:27:17,999
对不起啊那我吓到我一跳

1809
01:27:18,366 --> 01:27:19,666
你们考试那么早呀

1810
01:27:19,666 --> 01:27:20,999
我们一个学期考试

1811
01:27:21,100 --> 01:27:24,400
真是我不知道他为啥感觉啥都没学呢

1812
01:27:24,400 --> 01:27:27,600
第一周先混混第二周哎啥没干呢

1813
01:27:27,933 --> 01:27:29,966
开始开始考试了

1814
01:27:30,800 --> 01:27:31,933
挺搞怪的

1815
01:27:32,300 --> 01:27:34,600
什么老头这是我们教授

1816
01:27:34,933 --> 01:27:38,399
怎么说话能没有后背隐藏能源的人

1817
01:27:39,466 --> 01:27:40,766
什么老头啊

1818
01:27:41,566 --> 01:27:43,399
我操有老头

1819
01:27:43,900 --> 01:27:45,900
你们是变态吧

1820
01:27:55,800 --> 01:27:57,966
阿弥陀在呃

1821
01:27:59,400 --> 01:28:02,300
呃2月18号还可以

1822
01:28:03,300 --> 01:28:05,466
两幕了又要眼闭了

1823
01:28:05,466 --> 01:28:09,266
别呀谢谢某国庆东方热天降阿力盖照

1824
01:28:09,266 --> 01:28:11,099
谢谢谢谢我超老弟

1825
01:28:11,100 --> 01:28:12,333
谢谢支持芳芳

1826
01:28:12,333 --> 01:28:14,999
感谢金色眼闭等级

1827
01:28:15,000 --> 01:28:16,533
我不要眼闭

1828
01:28:17,866 --> 01:28:18,999
直播看课吧

1829
01:28:19,000 --> 01:28:21,200
不不直播看课看看PPT

1830
01:28:21,500 --> 01:28:22,566
江大要线下

1831
01:28:22,566 --> 01:28:23,933
我马上要线下了

1832
01:28:24,133 --> 01:28:25,799
谁要跟别的女人过年

1833
01:28:26,700 --> 01:28:27,500
嗯

1834
01:28:28,100 --> 01:28:28,900
嗯不

1835
01:28:28,900 --> 01:28:30,500
要跟别的女人过年

1836
01:28:34,900 --> 01:28:37,200
反转了我不会生你的气了

1837
01:28:37,200 --> 01:28:39,933
因为因为我过年太忙了

1838
01:28:41,466 --> 01:28:43,299
没办法好好的陪你

1839
01:28:43,600 --> 01:28:53,000
o Kay ding dong ding dong

1840
01:28:53,466 --> 01:28:54,733
我超爹开心

1841
01:28:54,733 --> 01:28:57,299
这种不嫁店长什么没关系的

1842
01:28:57,766 --> 01:28:59,766
哎你喜欢这个吗

1843
01:29:02,200 --> 01:29:03,266
你喜欢拼凑的

1844
01:29:03,266 --> 01:29:03,899
段英啊

1845
01:29:03,900 --> 01:29:06,566
周老爷我真的没想到你也会喜欢数钱

1846
01:29:08,333 --> 01:29:09,133
直播学习

1847
01:29:09,133 --> 01:29:09,966
骗自己吧

1848
01:29:09,966 --> 01:29:11,366
然后再打个印象

1849
01:29:11,366 --> 01:29:12,766
我第一个考试

1850
01:29:15,066 --> 01:29:16,733
什么狠狠的讨厌

1851
01:29:16,800 --> 01:29:19,066
我哥们要和我妈过年

1852
01:29:21,800 --> 01:29:23,266
哥们是谁啊

1853
01:29:23,733 --> 01:29:27,933
什么叫哥们要和你妈妈过年

1854
01:29:29,766 --> 01:29:32,733
你的好兄弟回家跟

1855
01:29:33,900 --> 01:29:35,966
妈妈一起过年吗

1856
01:29:40,200 --> 01:29:43,166
为什么你哥们会跟你妈妈一起过年啊

1857
01:29:55,100 --> 01:29:59,500
燕子愿意跟一人过年我没有怪你们

1858
01:30:00,100 --> 01:30:02,133
我不要跟你们过年

1859
01:30:03,266 --> 01:30:05,066
我也羡慕你们可以跟妈妈

1860
01:30:05,066 --> 01:30:06,299
一起过年的人

1861
01:30:06,300 --> 01:30:08,300
我都没有这个机会了

1862
01:30:08,733 --> 01:30:11,466
家人们而且不光是今年

1863
01:30:11,466 --> 01:30:13,966
明年后年可能也没有这个机会

1864
01:30:16,766 --> 01:30:18,299
哥们都是哥们啊

1865
01:30:18,300 --> 01:30:19,333
谁是你哥们

1866
01:30:19,333 --> 01:30:20,133
谢谢亲啊

1867
01:30:20,133 --> 01:30:22,199
送快乐50朵小花花

1868
01:30:22,200 --> 01:30:24,600
反感谢阿力哥说哈哈哈哈

1869
01:30:25,266 --> 01:30:27,866
哈哈什么有代餐

1870
01:30:29,866 --> 01:30:31,166
有代餐都来了

1871
01:30:31,166 --> 01:30:34,366
我不要代餐哎你们先别送了我看看

1872
01:30:34,366 --> 01:30:36,099
大乱斗家人们

1873
01:30:36,500 --> 01:30:37,466
心心

1874
01:30:38,333 --> 01:30:39,799
我听的好像是别人吧

1875
01:30:39,800 --> 01:30:41,100
这个有点假

1876
01:30:42,300 --> 01:30:43,500
这是原唱

1877
01:30:43,666 --> 01:30:44,966
这什么有点假

1878
01:30:45,333 --> 01:30:46,866
这不是真人唱的

1879
01:30:46,866 --> 01:30:49,299
这是声控引擎孩子脸迷哭

1880
01:30:49,300 --> 01:30:50,666
初音未来小姐唱的

1881
01:30:50,666 --> 01:30:52,599
你跟我说有点假是吧

1882
01:30:57,400 --> 01:31:00,400
怎么一句话激怒出于未来处

1883
01:31:02,000 --> 01:31:03,800
这个声音有点假

1884
01:31:04,600 --> 01:31:06,700
谁装傻你要跟妈妈一起过

1885
01:31:06,700 --> 01:31:07,866
那你哥们呢

1886
01:31:09,200 --> 01:31:10,200
谁装起来

1887
01:31:10,200 --> 01:31:12,600
我错了没这机会啊我都好久了

1888
01:31:12,600 --> 01:31:13,466
我听出来出来

1889
01:31:13,466 --> 01:31:16,799
我呃呃哥们就是我啊啊啊

1890
01:31:16,966 --> 01:31:20,099
这就像我我跟弹幕说那个

1891
01:31:22,566 --> 01:31:24,899
大伙的爹要和大伙一起过年

1892
01:31:24,900 --> 01:31:27,766
但其实这个大伙的爹指的是我对吧

1893
01:31:28,566 --> 01:31:30,333
我懂了我明白了谢谢

1894
01:31:30,333 --> 01:31:32,899
相同我给这个号也反感谢谢阿力阿特

1895
01:31:33,800 --> 01:31:36,733
哈哈哈大包听了肯定一顿揍

1896
01:31:37,000 --> 01:31:37,966
本来就是啊

1897
01:31:37,966 --> 01:31:39,166
我回不了家

1898
01:31:39,166 --> 01:31:40,599
比这个好听多了

1899
01:31:40,600 --> 01:31:42,733
我讨厌讨厌不行不行

1900
01:31:42,966 --> 01:31:44,999
不可以这样我要剥夺你的生命

1901
01:31:50,200 --> 01:31:53,000
大伙都假唱这多年了不用在意

1902
01:31:53,866 --> 01:31:55,999
哎我发现为啥匹配不到了呀

1903
01:31:56,000 --> 01:31:56,966
这啥意思啊

1904
01:31:56,966 --> 01:31:59,899
他不让我打架乱斗了啊匹到

1905
01:32:00,666 --> 01:32:02,299
妈妈给我听

1906
01:32:06,166 --> 01:32:08,299
我讲

1907
01:32:10,200 --> 01:32:12,100
天天触及底线是吧

1908
01:32:12,100 --> 01:32:14,133
你们的米线是不是有点太高了

1909
01:32:14,133 --> 01:32:15,666
有点太太低了

1910
01:32:16,133 --> 01:32:20,199
欢迎魏小可多次拒绝杨超越

1911
01:32:20,200 --> 01:32:21,733
可可音23级

1912
01:32:24,200 --> 01:32:26,566
你的ID好有创意

1913
01:32:27,800 --> 01:32:29,700
因为大伙能不能有谁改改

1914
01:32:29,700 --> 01:32:32,800
什么为为米亚米亚多次拒绝范冰冰

1915
01:32:32,800 --> 01:32:34,866
或者多次拒绝刘亦菲之类的

1916
01:32:38,333 --> 01:32:42,199
看vegetable已经够失败了还听what's right

1917
01:32:42,700 --> 01:32:45,000
咋的呢我当v又听v

1918
01:32:45,066 --> 01:32:46,299
这不是纯纯的言教

1919
01:32:46,300 --> 01:32:49,600
这作业反怪你哼

1920
01:32:51,333 --> 01:32:54,366
谢谢李海在直播间发送的红包啊

1921
01:32:54,366 --> 01:32:55,133
应该找李海

1922
01:32:55,133 --> 01:32:56,399
新年快乐

1923
01:32:56,900 --> 01:32:58,266
好久不见你

1924
01:33:06,866 --> 01:33:07,733
谢谢亲啊

1925
01:33:07,733 --> 01:33:09,199
4块的泡泡糖啊

1926
01:33:09,200 --> 01:33:12,400
应该叫为人人多吃几只米燕蜜啊

1927
01:33:12,566 --> 01:33:14,666
凭什么我是败犬

1928
01:33:15,566 --> 01:33:18,299
晚安保安塔前晚安晚安

1929
01:33:18,300 --> 01:33:19,666
凭什么我是拜泉

1930
01:33:19,666 --> 01:33:22,533
我不想让拜泉我要我要

1931
01:33:23,733 --> 01:33:26,766
你能不能为米呀米啊多次拒绝然然呢

1932
01:33:27,766 --> 01:33:30,499
为文静多次拒绝米

1933
01:33:33,600 --> 01:33:34,400
哎

1934
01:33:35,333 --> 01:33:37,366
晚上好晚上好

1935
01:33:38,133 --> 01:33:40,266
周末点歌MQQ

1936
01:33:42,400 --> 01:33:43,933
你巴不得我死是吧

1937
01:33:43,933 --> 01:33:46,566
为晶晶多次拒绝米

1938
01:33:47,533 --> 01:33:49,366
我我为什么是外貌

1939
01:33:49,366 --> 01:33:51,466
为米亚米亚多次拒绝吴彦祖

1940
01:33:51,466 --> 01:33:53,466
性别错了但是我很满意

1941
01:33:53,466 --> 01:33:55,366
虽然性别错了但我很满意

1942
01:33:55,366 --> 01:33:57,399
因为因为你也你也

1943
01:33:57,400 --> 01:34:00,100
因为我拒绝了我就很开心

1944
01:34:10,866 --> 01:34:13,666
为米亚米亚多次拒绝米亚米亚

1945
01:34:13,666 --> 01:34:16,499
那你喜欢的到底是米亚米亚本人

1946
01:34:16,933 --> 01:34:20,199
还是一个你印象中的幻影

1947
01:34:20,200 --> 01:34:21,933
你喜欢的到底是这个

1948
01:34:22,866 --> 01:34:26,699
这个可爱清楚单纯的米亚米亚的形象

1949
01:34:28,066 --> 01:34:28,866
还是

1950
01:34:34,533 --> 01:34:37,533
内在的这个混沌不堪的我呢

1951
01:34:40,066 --> 01:34:44,533
欢迎小UC多次去缠绵你也小UC是吧

1952
01:34:45,366 --> 01:34:47,766
谢谢东方正的泡泡糖啊厉害了

1953
01:34:47,766 --> 01:34:49,266
为米呀米呀多次拒绝

1954
01:34:49,266 --> 01:34:50,566
香草你别拒绝香草

1955
01:34:50,566 --> 01:34:52,866
你能不能狠狠的赞同一下香草

1956
01:34:54,066 --> 01:34:55,699
为吐气多次拒绝

1957
01:34:55,700 --> 01:34:58,100
你你好光阴是你的赞歌

1958
01:34:59,100 --> 01:35:01,466
为什么我只能抽到金币和泡泡糖

1959
01:35:01,466 --> 01:35:02,966
我们直播间一次就是

1960
01:35:03,133 --> 01:35:04,933
金币跟泡泡糖堆起来的

1961
01:35:04,933 --> 01:35:05,599
直播间了

1962
01:35:05,600 --> 01:35:07,666
金币泡泡糖粉玫瑰

1963
01:35:08,266 --> 01:35:09,166
没别的了

1964
01:35:09,166 --> 01:35:10,333
这一晚上

1965
01:35:10,533 --> 01:35:12,299
一个那个什么

1966
01:35:12,366 --> 01:35:14,899
那个战鼓声声一个都没出

1967
01:35:14,900 --> 01:35:17,733
然后出了一个疯狂应援更别说什么

1968
01:35:17,933 --> 01:35:18,733
呵呵

1969
01:35:19,866 --> 01:35:21,666
喂喂

1970
01:35:23,400 --> 01:35:24,900
好干屁

1971
01:35:27,333 --> 01:35:29,399
我不行我回来了

1972
01:35:37,100 --> 01:35:38,133
不是怎么会

1973
01:35:38,133 --> 01:35:39,733
铜戒掉没了

1974
01:35:39,733 --> 01:35:42,599
呃我的铜戒

1975
01:35:42,800 --> 01:35:45,500
哈哈哈铜戒我的铜戒

1976
01:35:47,500 --> 01:35:49,600
哇哦我我回来了

1977
01:35:49,600 --> 01:35:54,266
你们你们看得到吗听得到吗喂喂喂喂

1978
01:35:55,133 --> 01:35:56,333
莫西莫西

1979
01:35:57,266 --> 01:35:58,866
你电话声音开

1980
01:36:02,000 --> 01:36:04,466
我好想放电棍了你看哦

1981
01:36:04,566 --> 01:36:06,299
什么又能看得到吗

1982
01:36:06,300 --> 01:36:08,466
我爱你怎么又改了回退了

1983
01:36:09,200 --> 01:36:10,366
大货

1984
01:36:12,533 --> 01:36:14,133
看得到吗

1985
01:36:17,766 --> 01:36:18,966
听得到吗

1986
01:36:19,166 --> 01:36:21,066
主播就是深海少女不够我爱

1987
01:36:21,066 --> 01:36:22,466
那行那行

1988
01:36:23,566 --> 01:36:24,666
那行那行

1989
01:36:24,666 --> 01:36:27,666
哎呀吓死我了我以为真急了呢

1990
01:36:27,666 --> 01:36:29,133
那就好那就好

1991
01:36:29,966 --> 01:36:33,666
逗我你们再逗我玩我就要生气了

1992
01:36:33,800 --> 01:36:35,800
你们再逗我玩我就要生气了

1993
01:36:38,666 --> 01:36:39,266
真听不到

1994
01:36:39,266 --> 01:36:40,733
真的吗我不信

1995
01:36:43,600 --> 01:36:45,700
他这个是啥呀一天

1996
01:36:50,466 --> 01:36:51,499
这什么一天

1997
01:36:51,500 --> 01:36:52,733
一天赢

1998
01:36:53,500 --> 01:36:54,600
15把

1999
01:36:55,400 --> 01:36:56,700
一天赢10把

2000
01:36:56,700 --> 01:36:58,133
给5个星光

2001
01:37:00,933 --> 01:37:01,866
就没了

2002
01:37:13,666 --> 01:37:15,066
目黑黑的柔柔的

2003
01:37:15,066 --> 01:37:17,733
别骗我我知道我已经回来了

2004
01:37:17,733 --> 01:37:19,566
别骗我我感觉到了

2005
01:37:19,966 --> 01:37:22,766
笑一个大姑大姑大姑大姑

2006
01:37:23,333 --> 01:37:24,466
大姑大姑

2007
01:37:25,133 --> 01:37:27,999
哈哈哈大哥大哥晚上好

2008
01:37:28,000 --> 01:37:30,000
晚上好怎么都小孩

2009
01:37:30,000 --> 01:37:31,166
晚上好

2010
01:37:32,466 --> 01:37:33,499
大姑大姑

2011
01:37:38,866 --> 01:37:41,333
屏幕真黑我都看到了

2012
01:37:41,600 --> 01:37:42,566
我在我直播间

2013
01:37:42,566 --> 01:37:44,666
我都在放我的这个声音了

2014
01:37:44,966 --> 01:37:46,733
我自己的号就在直播间里

2015
01:37:46,733 --> 01:37:47,799
然后你告诉我

2016
01:37:48,366 --> 01:37:50,366
你告诉我听不到

2017
01:37:56,266 --> 01:37:58,866
我也喜欢大姑大姑胜过喵娘

2018
01:37:58,866 --> 01:37:59,733
怎么办的主播

2019
01:37:59,733 --> 01:38:02,166
那是因为大姑大姑是我自己的语言了

2020
01:38:02,166 --> 01:38:05,199
喵娘的话只是猫嘴通用的喵喵叫

2021
01:38:06,933 --> 01:38:08,933
代餐开饭都来了

2022
01:38:08,933 --> 01:38:09,899
你们别逗我

2023
01:38:09,900 --> 01:38:13,266
呀真假的呀我自己的手机是正常的呀

2024
01:38:14,400 --> 01:38:15,766
逗我呀家人们

2025
01:38:16,666 --> 01:38:19,699
你们你们重新进一下呗重进一下吧

2026
01:38:19,700 --> 01:38:21,966
家人们家人们黑屏

2027
01:38:22,266 --> 01:38:23,566
黑屏别叫

2028
01:38:27,166 --> 01:38:30,999
啊不能这么发家人们黑屏重新进一下

2029
01:38:36,000 --> 01:38:39,933
我差点差点差点发家人们黑屏别叫了

2030
01:38:39,966 --> 01:38:41,866
怎么还是没画面啊啊

2031
01:38:41,866 --> 01:38:42,799
为什么

2032
01:38:43,466 --> 01:38:45,399
这个我自己能看到呀

2033
01:38:46,800 --> 01:38:47,600
what

2034
01:38:48,566 --> 01:38:50,699
我我自己能看到耶

2035
01:38:53,133 --> 01:38:55,366
我画这是高清的主线了

2036
01:38:55,366 --> 01:38:57,366
你们原画的也能看到呀

2037
01:38:57,366 --> 01:39:00,333
原画也没问题啊啊

2038
01:39:02,166 --> 01:39:02,966
啊

2039
01:39:03,733 --> 01:39:04,533
啊

2040
01:39:14,933 --> 01:39:17,299
晚上好无敌战狼爷

2041
01:39:18,133 --> 01:39:21,733
你们是不是你们在这拍开端呢是吧

2042
01:39:21,733 --> 01:39:24,066
你们一直在这时间循环呢

2043
01:39:24,766 --> 01:39:27,666
留下我一个人在原地不知所措是吧

2044
01:39:27,666 --> 01:39:30,599
刚进来为什么是黑屏啊真的吗

2045
01:39:30,600 --> 01:39:32,766
圣之鬼真的吗

2046
01:39:33,366 --> 01:39:35,733
真的吗真的吗

2047
01:39:38,933 --> 01:39:41,499
是骗我呀啊

2048
01:39:43,500 --> 01:39:45,000
怎么回事

2049
01:39:45,366 --> 01:39:47,166
怎么回事呀

2050
01:39:47,933 --> 01:39:48,933
下播了吗

2051
01:39:48,933 --> 01:39:50,666
没有下播呀

2052
01:39:52,600 --> 01:39:54,700
啊假的哈哈

2053
01:39:55,333 --> 01:39:56,333
傻逼

2054
01:40:01,800 --> 01:40:02,900
嗯

2055
01:40:04,366 --> 01:40:05,166
哈

2056
01:40:06,900 --> 01:40:08,166
气死我了

2057
01:40:09,366 --> 01:40:10,699
气死我了

2058
01:40:13,700 --> 01:40:18,366
谢谢singing sukina的两个爱了爱了

2059
01:40:23,800 --> 01:40:27,133
我生气了我生气了哼

2060
01:40:36,400 --> 01:40:38,533
太软了你们都是大笨蛋

2061
01:40:38,700 --> 01:40:40,500
笑起来谁笑起来

2062
01:40:40,566 --> 01:40:41,366
谁笑起来

2063
01:40:41,366 --> 01:40:42,333
照顾照顾

2064
01:40:49,100 --> 01:40:51,466
承诺人被叫过来测试了

2065
01:40:51,466 --> 01:40:53,133
你现在能看到画面吗

2066
01:40:53,133 --> 01:40:55,799
升职鬼你能看到画面吗

2067
01:40:56,066 --> 01:40:58,699
这些蓝字纸字都不靠谱

2068
01:40:58,700 --> 01:41:01,066
我需要一个这个致命白字

2069
01:41:01,066 --> 01:41:03,099
来给我一个狠狠的一个

2070
01:41:03,800 --> 01:41:06,400
准确的回应886傻宝

2071
01:41:10,000 --> 01:41:11,266
886傻宝

2072
01:41:11,266 --> 01:41:13,966
你就这么对我你就这么对米呀咪呀

2073
01:41:17,866 --> 01:41:18,966
大咕大咕

2074
01:41:22,766 --> 01:41:25,166
欢迎妈妈妈妈晚上好

2075
01:41:25,166 --> 01:41:26,366
你猜我能不能看到

2076
01:41:26,366 --> 01:41:27,666
我猜你可以看到的

2077
01:41:27,666 --> 01:41:30,399
但是你为什么要跟着他们一起骗我呢

2078
01:41:31,133 --> 01:41:33,099
我猜你是能看到的

2079
01:41:38,166 --> 01:41:41,133
纯露人主播真可爱谢谢你啊

2080
01:41:42,200 --> 01:41:44,300
但是你你这个纯露人要是没

2081
01:41:44,300 --> 01:41:45,400
有我的四级牌子

2082
01:41:45,400 --> 01:41:47,766
可能看起来会更像露脸

2083
01:41:56,800 --> 01:41:59,466
为什么爹妈一起来

2084
01:42:03,133 --> 01:42:07,299
他们两个什么时候瞒着我进行了一个

2085
01:42:07,366 --> 01:42:09,966
不正当关系的发展呀

2086
01:42:10,566 --> 01:42:13,399
我要做一个爹了吗妈妈

2087
01:42:15,333 --> 01:42:17,333
怎么这么突然呢

2088
01:42:17,333 --> 01:42:20,666
都都没有人跟我说过这件事

2089
01:42:20,666 --> 01:42:23,299
为什么我是最后一个人知道的

2090
01:42:24,566 --> 01:42:27,866
你们两个为什么一起发问号呀

2091
01:42:30,566 --> 01:42:32,466
哥你们重组的家庭

2092
01:42:32,466 --> 01:42:35,066
我是最后一个知道的人呢

2093
01:42:37,933 --> 01:42:40,366
你们有没有考虑过年仅

2094
01:42:40,400 --> 01:42:42,333
3岁的我的感受

2095
01:42:45,600 --> 01:42:47,933
我会狠狠的祝福你们的

2096
01:42:47,933 --> 01:42:48,733
但是

2097
01:42:48,866 --> 01:42:51,999
我不想成为最后一个知道这件事的人

2098
01:42:52,000 --> 01:42:52,800
好吗

2099
01:42:53,366 --> 01:42:57,333
作为你们的孩子我应该有知情权呀

2100
01:43:02,100 --> 01:43:04,500
我对佳木妈妈感到不耻

2101
01:43:05,166 --> 01:43:08,066
反转了佳木妈妈已经被我拐跑了

2102
01:43:08,200 --> 01:43:11,300
妈妈收到了我的礼物还说很喜欢

2103
01:43:11,300 --> 01:43:12,100
嘿嘿

2104
01:43:15,166 --> 01:43:17,666
晚安晚安灰色社会人

2105
01:43:19,100 --> 01:43:22,200
哈人你们为什么会一起发问号

2106
01:43:26,366 --> 01:43:29,466
黑屏别叫燕子真能说出来

2107
01:43:30,900 --> 01:43:32,400
因为有的时候就

2108
01:43:32,866 --> 01:43:33,899
是不是在弹幕里

2109
01:43:33,900 --> 01:43:35,900
不敢发的东西就拿去水去了

2110
01:43:35,900 --> 01:43:37,333
别不敢发呀

2111
01:43:37,466 --> 01:43:38,999
除非你在弹幕扔炸弹

2112
01:43:39,000 --> 01:43:41,266
要不然我我我不会说什么的

2113
01:43:41,300 --> 01:43:43,566
你觉得我会害怕这些事吗

2114
01:43:44,166 --> 01:43:45,133
我不怕的呀

2115
01:43:45,133 --> 01:43:47,733
你这黑屏别叫有啥不能念的

2116
01:43:51,666 --> 01:43:53,266
年仅3岁的迷呀

2117
01:43:53,266 --> 01:43:54,466
什么都不害怕

2118
01:43:54,466 --> 01:43:57,166
害怕的就一个人抛弃自己

2119
01:44:01,866 --> 01:44:03,199
只要音乐人

2120
01:44:04,300 --> 01:44:05,500
在我身边

2121
01:44:05,500 --> 01:44:09,900
我觉得这一切都有处理的办法

2122
01:44:13,066 --> 01:44:15,799
今天的直播就看到这里了

2123
01:44:16,200 --> 01:44:18,466
燕子晚安晚安晚安

2124
01:44:18,466 --> 01:44:19,466
天气哎呀

2125
01:44:21,300 --> 01:44:22,100
哦

2126
01:44:28,266 --> 01:44:31,766
怎么有人先进舰长群后进白字群啊

2127
01:44:31,766 --> 01:44:32,266
是想

2128
01:44:32,266 --> 01:44:35,866
天先体会世界上最混沌的粉丝群体

2129
01:44:35,900 --> 01:44:39,366
再体会世界上最纯真的粉丝群体吗

2130
01:44:40,000 --> 01:44:41,366
请问主播是什么物种

2131
01:44:41,366 --> 01:44:42,599
黑屏看不见

2132
01:44:42,600 --> 01:44:44,933
其实我呢是

2133
01:44:45,866 --> 01:44:49,266
皇帝的爷爷庙只有聪明的

2134
01:44:49,266 --> 01:44:51,866
人才可以看见屏幕中间

2135
01:44:52,000 --> 01:44:54,600
梳着黑头发扎着双马尾

2136
01:44:54,766 --> 01:44:56,199
手里抱着玩偶

2137
01:44:56,200 --> 01:44:59,866
脑袋上顶着宝石穿着礼服的云烟庙

2138
01:44:59,966 --> 01:45:01,599
如果比较笨的人呢

2139
01:45:01,600 --> 01:45:03,933
只能看到穿着毛衣的我

2140
01:45:04,266 --> 01:45:06,699
那如果是没有智商的人呢

2141
01:45:06,700 --> 01:45:09,466
会觉得屏幕整个都是全黑一片的

2142
01:45:09,466 --> 01:45:13,166
是因为他的智商没有办法理解这个

2143
01:45:13,866 --> 01:45:15,933
这个这个烟烟喵这种

2144
01:45:15,966 --> 01:45:19,466
奇怪的存在是由什么东西来构成的

2145
01:45:19,966 --> 01:45:21,699
当然最最聪明的人呢

2146
01:45:21,700 --> 01:45:23,800
看着烟烟喵会回归本真

2147
01:45:23,800 --> 01:45:25,666
就会什么都不穿了

2148
01:45:25,666 --> 01:45:26,566
但是目前来说

2149
01:45:26,566 --> 01:45:29,566
我们直播间还没有发现这么聪明的人

2150
01:45:30,100 --> 01:45:32,333
这是我偷偷告诉你的秘密哦

2151
01:45:34,266 --> 01:45:35,066
嘿嘿

2152
01:45:35,800 --> 01:45:38,300
怎么点一首前进了呢

2153
01:45:42,933 --> 01:45:44,266
我看一下

2154
01:45:48,266 --> 01:45:50,199
你昨天就在点这个5P

2155
01:46:00,766 --> 01:46:02,133
为什么不听听

2156
01:46:02,866 --> 01:46:05,499
听说音乐人不能抛弃米亚米亚

2157
01:46:05,500 --> 01:46:06,966
不可以抛弃米亚米亚

2158
01:46:06,966 --> 01:46:08,599
你抛弃米亚米亚米亚米亚

2159
01:46:08,600 --> 01:46:12,166
就转身转到你们不认识的地方去

2160
01:46:12,166 --> 01:46:13,166
然后以后

2161
01:46:13,200 --> 01:46:15,800
走在马路上你们都认不出来我

2162
01:46:15,800 --> 01:46:17,366
这样多不开心呢

2163
01:46:18,100 --> 01:46:20,133
我刚刚点了主播不放

2164
01:46:20,766 --> 01:46:21,566
那个

2165
01:46:22,300 --> 01:46:24,000
哥哥哥太好笑了

2166
01:46:24,400 --> 01:46:26,133
你是双子鬼吗

2167
01:46:26,266 --> 01:46:27,499
两眼一黑

2168
01:46:28,066 --> 01:46:28,766
对对聪明

2169
01:46:28,766 --> 01:46:30,733
我看见了一丝不挂的你

2170
01:46:30,733 --> 01:46:31,399
我可以吗

2171
01:46:31,400 --> 01:46:33,466
夸我哈哈哈

2172
01:46:33,466 --> 01:46:34,499
那你说说

2173
01:46:34,566 --> 01:46:35,766
最聪明的人是

2174
01:46:35,766 --> 01:46:38,699
能够这个知道主播的这个这个胸围的

2175
01:46:38,700 --> 01:46:40,133
你说说主播的胸围

2176
01:46:40,200 --> 01:46:42,900
说对了呢主播就承认你是最聪明的人

2177
01:46:44,133 --> 01:46:45,799
来做出你的选择吧

2178
01:46:45,800 --> 01:46:49,000
主播是a还是b还是c还是d呢

2179
01:46:51,700 --> 01:46:55,000
最聪明的人能够透过现象看到本质啊

2180
01:46:58,700 --> 01:46:59,966
先生念念大木吧

2181
01:46:59,966 --> 01:47:00,266
没有

2182
01:47:00,266 --> 01:47:02,799
因为我刚才在发现了在慢慢往下呢

2183
01:47:03,100 --> 01:47:04,866
我晕了再看我得坐着睡着

2184
01:47:04,866 --> 01:47:05,566
晚安诺海

2185
01:47:05,566 --> 01:47:07,999
OS me谁说100以下不念的

2186
01:47:08,100 --> 01:47:10,000
非人物种这直播间没有人

2187
01:47:10,000 --> 01:47:11,400
谁说对不起

2188
01:47:11,700 --> 01:47:13,566
好的那个我们再看看啊

2189
01:47:13,566 --> 01:47:15,699
我们直播间还是很友好的

2190
01:47:15,933 --> 01:47:18,533
34B 40厘米

2191
01:47:21,400 --> 01:47:22,533
40厘米

2192
01:47:23,500 --> 01:47:25,866
你知不知道40厘米这个

2193
01:47:27,166 --> 01:47:29,099
小学以上的女生的胸围

2194
01:47:29,100 --> 01:47:30,400
40厘米都挡不住啊

2195
01:47:30,400 --> 01:47:32,866
你知不知道40厘米是个啥样的该

2196
01:47:34,600 --> 01:47:36,666
36亿不是盆底

2197
01:47:36,666 --> 01:47:38,133
你有吗我当然有啊

2198
01:47:38,166 --> 01:47:39,699
主播是刚满40G

2199
01:47:39,700 --> 01:47:40,966
我猜对了吧

2200
01:47:40,966 --> 01:47:41,766
主播

2201
01:47:42,466 --> 01:47:44,199
34为啥是b啊

2202
01:47:46,733 --> 01:47:47,599
对a吗

2203
01:47:47,600 --> 01:47:51,000
当然是大大大的答案就是对对勾啊

2204
01:47:51,000 --> 01:47:53,566
嗯主播的这个这个胸围是对勾

2205
01:47:55,066 --> 01:47:55,866
没想到吧

2206
01:47:55,866 --> 01:47:58,466
就聪明的人才能透过主播这个

2207
01:47:58,466 --> 01:48:00,199
oversize款的宽松毛衣

2208
01:48:00,200 --> 01:48:01,900
看到主播对勾的本质

2209
01:48:04,866 --> 01:48:07,733
谢谢皇家骑士的爱了爱了爱的感动

2210
01:48:07,733 --> 01:48:09,133
欢迎哈尔对勾

2211
01:48:09,266 --> 01:48:10,333
对勾吧

2212
01:48:11,100 --> 01:48:12,600
谁说的对勾吧

2213
01:48:15,000 --> 01:48:17,000
给脸不要脸

2214
01:48:19,166 --> 01:48:21,066
谁说我给脸不要脸

2215
01:48:22,466 --> 01:48:23,533
骗大伙可以

2216
01:48:23,533 --> 01:48:24,899
不要迷失自己

2217
01:48:38,533 --> 01:48:41,333
主播一直都很擅长自我迷失你

2218
01:48:42,800 --> 01:48:43,700
get your love

2219
01:49:02,700 --> 01:49:03,600
下来说捣蛋

2220
01:49:03,600 --> 01:49:06,600
你怎么就想要你那个捣蛋呀

2221
01:49:07,366 --> 01:49:09,099
我看看接下来放什么

2222
01:49:09,100 --> 01:49:11,300
粉色一人一直打游戏

2223
01:49:12,400 --> 01:49:14,100
打游戏确实

2224
01:49:14,666 --> 01:49:17,299
不太行等下来首捣蛋听完睡觉

2225
01:49:17,300 --> 01:49:20,133
那行我切片都做完准备传了

2226
01:49:20,133 --> 01:49:21,366
你还没复播吗

2227
01:49:21,366 --> 01:49:23,333
我也知道复播呀你在切什么

2228
01:49:23,333 --> 01:49:24,533
能不能让我传

2229
01:49:24,733 --> 01:49:26,399
能不能让我切呀

2230
01:49:28,133 --> 01:49:30,199
让我偷吧求求你了

2231
01:49:30,200 --> 01:49:32,466
粉色姻缘真的太假了

2232
01:49:32,533 --> 01:49:35,899
哈哈哈你明明知道

2233
01:49:35,900 --> 01:49:36,933
你明明知道

2234
01:49:36,933 --> 01:49:39,666
这个粉色姻缘唱的什么歌呀

2235
01:49:44,000 --> 01:49:45,266
反正爷爷喜欢

2236
01:49:45,266 --> 01:49:48,533
喜欢玩那个任天堂和卡普空

2237
01:49:50,933 --> 01:49:52,066
说起来就

2238
01:49:52,766 --> 01:49:55,066
郑老爷这个喜好的

2239
01:49:55,066 --> 01:49:57,199
这个歌实在是让我觉得

2240
01:49:57,300 --> 01:50:00,266
年龄可能像他的这个ID一样

2241
01:50:00,533 --> 01:50:04,099
郑老爷不会是四五十岁的老头吧

2242
01:50:06,966 --> 01:50:09,699
除草机对除草机又说没有

2243
01:50:09,700 --> 01:50:10,800
两眼一黑

2244
01:50:11,466 --> 01:50:13,166
确实微圈明星吗

2245
01:50:20,700 --> 01:50:21,933
我刷到了一个切片

2246
01:50:21,933 --> 01:50:24,933
名字叫做插出去的反义词是什么

2247
01:50:25,400 --> 01:50:27,400
插出去的反义词是什么呢

2248
01:50:31,733 --> 01:50:34,599
如果我男朋友喜欢看管人

2249
01:50:34,600 --> 01:50:37,600
我会让他知道什么叫哼

2250
01:50:37,600 --> 01:50:38,600
想他

2251
01:50:39,900 --> 01:50:43,500
啊为啥我现在首页这些切片都是

2252
01:50:45,100 --> 01:50:45,900
哎

2253
01:50:46,733 --> 01:50:47,766
不看了不看了

2254
01:50:47,766 --> 01:50:48,999
这都啥呀

2255
01:50:50,766 --> 01:50:52,766
主播就半夜骗老头女人

2256
01:50:52,766 --> 01:50:53,599
女主播是吧

2257
01:50:53,600 --> 01:50:54,366
狠狠的骗

2258
01:50:54,366 --> 01:50:55,366
再开一场大乱斗

2259
01:50:55,366 --> 01:50:59,066
狠狠的哈哈哈感觉不如米烟夹子

2260
01:50:59,733 --> 01:51:06,966
终于看开爱回不来而你总是太晚明白

2261
01:51:06,966 --> 01:51:08,333
什么狗回来

2262
01:51:08,333 --> 01:51:09,266
怎么说是狗

2263
01:51:09,266 --> 01:51:10,199
那个什么

2264
01:51:11,766 --> 01:51:14,299
等我留下来

2265
01:51:14,500 --> 01:51:16,200
终于感慨

2266
01:51:16,566 --> 01:51:20,299
其实我不是很喜欢就周杰伦给蔡依林

2267
01:51:20,300 --> 01:51:22,066
写的这些歌

2268
01:51:22,933 --> 01:51:24,666
因为因为

2269
01:51:26,866 --> 01:51:30,133
这两个人之中就也没有在一起吗

2270
01:51:30,133 --> 01:51:31,466
就感觉听

2271
01:51:31,666 --> 01:51:34,733
周杰伦给蔡依林写的歌有一种

2272
01:51:35,266 --> 01:51:36,666
有一种罪恶感

2273
01:51:36,666 --> 01:51:38,699
也不能叫罪恶感吧

2274
01:51:39,533 --> 01:51:40,599
就觉得

2275
01:51:41,800 --> 01:51:43,700
嗯不太行

2276
01:51:44,133 --> 01:51:46,599
没米了都被骗过了

2277
01:51:47,466 --> 01:51:50,733
哦我对宠爱的要求还挺高的

2278
01:51:50,933 --> 01:51:53,999
就一想到这些有唱情歌的

2279
01:51:54,000 --> 01:51:57,133
这两个人最终没有在一起

2280
01:51:57,666 --> 01:51:59,533
就不想听了

2281
01:52:01,266 --> 01:52:04,166
周杰伦原来跟蔡依林有说法的吗

2282
01:52:04,166 --> 01:52:05,099
是有的吧

2283
01:52:05,100 --> 01:52:06,366
很久之前

2284
01:52:06,600 --> 01:52:09,500
为什么周杰伦会给蔡依林写一些情歌

2285
01:52:09,500 --> 01:52:13,900
好像就是因为之前他们就有在一起过

2286
01:52:15,533 --> 01:52:16,999
没有米了

2287
01:52:17,666 --> 01:52:19,199
有的烟烟

2288
01:52:19,500 --> 01:52:20,500
你是那个

2289
01:52:21,066 --> 01:52:22,933
军舰星空吗

2290
01:52:22,933 --> 01:52:24,133
是那首歌吗

2291
01:52:24,133 --> 01:52:24,966
你的爱心

2292
01:52:25,933 --> 01:52:27,699
哎你好可爱糖葫芦

2293
01:52:27,800 --> 01:52:29,600
我我看到你好几次了

2294
01:52:29,600 --> 01:52:32,600
每次你来都发一个很可爱的英文字

2295
01:52:33,666 --> 01:52:34,299
那你看

2296
01:52:34,300 --> 01:52:38,533
凤凰传奇的徐良不是罪大恶极在侯佩

2297
01:52:38,733 --> 01:52:39,966
对对对对对

2298
01:52:41,400 --> 01:52:42,900
凤凰传奇的话

2299
01:52:42,900 --> 01:52:46,133
他们四个人不都是很好的工作伙伴吗

2300
01:52:46,133 --> 01:52:47,499
那不能算的

2301
01:52:47,666 --> 01:52:49,899
这个就是周杰伦跟蔡依林

2302
01:52:49,900 --> 01:52:52,533
就是两个人就要好的时候

2303
01:52:52,533 --> 01:52:55,099
周杰伦写了很多歌给蔡依林唱吗

2304
01:52:55,133 --> 01:52:57,166
还有合作舞台之类的

2305
01:52:57,766 --> 01:53:00,199
晚上好我凯琳又回来了

2306
01:53:01,533 --> 01:53:03,666
我记得凤凰传奇那个公司

2307
01:53:03,666 --> 01:53:05,099
然后我什么经纪人

2308
01:53:05,100 --> 01:53:07,766
就是女方还是男方的另一半

2309
01:53:07,766 --> 01:53:10,099
然后剩下一个耻骨多的是

2310
01:53:10,100 --> 01:53:11,966
另一个人的另一半来着

2311
01:53:13,566 --> 01:53:14,333
没有没有

2312
01:53:14,333 --> 01:53:17,799
这两个人就分别有有家庭的吗

2313
01:53:18,666 --> 01:53:19,466
对

2314
01:53:21,866 --> 01:53:24,499
那不能算是那什么吧人家就

2315
01:53:25,066 --> 01:53:26,299
因为就是

2316
01:53:26,466 --> 01:53:29,399
就是看了一些没什么用的东西

2317
01:53:31,366 --> 01:53:34,166
所以我一般听蔡依林的时候都不

2318
01:53:34,166 --> 01:53:35,133
听周杰伦

2319
01:53:35,133 --> 01:53:36,999
给蔡依林写的歌

2320
01:53:37,600 --> 01:53:40,733
心里会就感觉不开心

2321
01:53:48,400 --> 01:53:50,100
宁愿没出现

2322
01:53:50,133 --> 01:53:52,133
求我别离开

2323
01:53:54,366 --> 01:53:58,766
哎你总是太晚明白最后才把话说开

2324
01:53:58,766 --> 01:54:00,699
哭着求我留下来

2325
01:54:01,066 --> 01:54:05,733
我们面前太多阻碍你的手却放不开

2326
01:54:06,166 --> 01:54:07,566
很悲伤啊

2327
01:54:07,566 --> 01:54:10,299
这么听起来就很悲伤啊

2328
01:54:12,366 --> 01:54:13,899
难道不是吗

2329
01:54:22,466 --> 01:54:24,266
我特别喜欢这首对花

2330
01:54:24,266 --> 01:54:25,866
很喜欢这个呀

2331
01:54:27,700 --> 01:54:30,200
这有啥的主播一看就没谈过恋爱

2332
01:54:30,200 --> 01:54:30,666
我

2333
01:54:30,666 --> 01:54:35,299
我看小说只喜欢看之后男主角跟女主

2334
01:54:35,300 --> 01:54:38,333
角幸福快乐的生活在一起的

2335
01:54:38,733 --> 01:54:43,533
我不喜欢看那些悲伤的剧

2336
01:54:43,933 --> 01:54:47,733
两个人明明相爱之后又错过的

2337
01:54:47,800 --> 01:54:49,600
嗯不喜欢

2338
01:54:50,566 --> 01:54:51,766
你也喜欢对方

2339
01:54:51,766 --> 01:54:52,933
加个微吧

2340
01:54:53,400 --> 01:54:55,300
什么醉翁之意不在哥

2341
01:54:55,300 --> 01:54:56,766
你就狠狠的就行了

2342
01:54:57,100 --> 01:54:59,000
谢谢晚安椰子晚安花生

2343
01:54:59,000 --> 01:55:00,866
要黑天和s蜜

2344
01:55:01,966 --> 01:55:04,399
你们不会感觉悲伤吗

2345
01:55:06,733 --> 01:55:08,766
虽然也有就

2346
01:55:10,000 --> 01:55:11,366
让最美好的东

2347
01:55:11,366 --> 01:55:14,166
西定格在最绚烂的那一刻

2348
01:55:14,300 --> 01:55:17,800
算是一种悲剧的美学这种说法

2349
01:55:17,800 --> 01:55:19,666
但是我还是不喜欢

2350
01:55:19,700 --> 01:55:21,366
我宁愿他们

2351
01:55:22,133 --> 01:55:23,566
平平淡淡的

2352
01:55:23,900 --> 01:55:25,100
或许众生

2353
01:55:25,100 --> 01:55:25,900
然后

2354
01:55:26,266 --> 01:55:29,599
在我的想象里他们度过了幸福的一生

2355
01:55:29,600 --> 01:55:31,100
这样就好了

2356
01:55:32,066 --> 01:55:35,199
我不想看描述5厘米我真的很虐

2357
01:55:35,400 --> 01:55:38,866
我不想我不想我不想

2358
01:55:40,500 --> 01:55:42,500
啊我要闹了

2359
01:55:47,866 --> 01:55:50,499
来首蔚蓝的大哥

2360
01:55:59,266 --> 01:56:01,266
听的这些歌我都没听过

2361
01:56:01,266 --> 01:56:02,399
因合作方要求

2362
01:56:02,400 --> 01:56:04,466
我所在的地区又没法播放了

2363
01:56:04,466 --> 01:56:07,166
主播喜欢夺走别人老婆的心愿

2364
01:56:07,800 --> 01:56:10,066
我怎么就喜欢亲爱的呢

2365
01:56:10,066 --> 01:56:11,299
我才不会呢

2366
01:56:11,300 --> 01:56:12,600
主播为了这

2367
01:56:13,133 --> 01:56:16,866
作者为了塑造故事冲突就喜欢个逼

2368
01:56:17,366 --> 01:56:21,299
但是我还是希望有情人终成眷属

2369
01:56:22,966 --> 01:56:23,766
嗯

2370
01:56:25,533 --> 01:56:28,566
我还是希望有情人终成眷属

2371
01:56:28,566 --> 01:56:32,133
希望大家都幸福快乐的生活在一起

2372
01:56:33,000 --> 01:56:35,800
像童话故事里说的那样

2373
01:56:36,000 --> 01:56:38,700
一生一世一辈子都幸福

2374
01:56:40,866 --> 01:56:42,699
张璇的歌能放

2375
01:56:46,533 --> 01:56:49,466
悲剧是把美好的东西毁灭给我看

2376
01:56:49,466 --> 01:56:50,599
可我不想看

2377
01:56:50,600 --> 01:56:53,600
毁灭了这美好那就不是美好了

2378
01:56:54,133 --> 01:56:55,099
也放不出来

2379
01:56:55,100 --> 01:56:58,066
只有一首留下来陪你生活能放的出来

2380
01:56:58,066 --> 01:56:59,399
剩下都是灰的

2381
01:57:00,300 --> 01:57:02,666
我不是喜欢一生一世一双人啊

2382
01:57:02,666 --> 01:57:03,999
那难度太高了

2383
01:57:04,000 --> 01:57:05,466
很难做到的吧

2384
01:57:05,500 --> 01:57:07,733
我只是嗯

2385
01:57:09,200 --> 01:57:13,900
我只是希望互相喜欢的人都能在一起

2386
01:57:18,333 --> 01:57:20,533
有喜欢的人

2387
01:57:25,500 --> 01:57:28,200
现实生活已经很不顺利了你还不

2388
01:57:28,300 --> 01:57:29,533
你还不多看看

2389
01:57:29,533 --> 01:57:32,066
那种天天的

2390
01:57:32,966 --> 01:57:35,999
嘿喜欢益达人你们就好那个是吧

2391
01:57:36,133 --> 01:57:37,799
我真是嗯

2392
01:57:38,566 --> 01:57:39,366
哈哈哈

2393
01:57:39,366 --> 01:57:42,199
因为你们就喜欢这个叠罗汉是吧

2394
01:57:42,200 --> 01:57:44,666
这个嫣然跟嫣然亲密接触是吧

2395
01:57:44,666 --> 01:57:46,266
就爱听苦情歌

2396
01:57:46,333 --> 01:57:48,499
郑老爷明明喜欢听苦情歌

2397
01:57:48,500 --> 01:57:49,600
凭什么不吃苦

2398
01:57:49,600 --> 01:57:50,533
咖啡呀

2399
01:57:51,766 --> 01:57:53,866
你们你们这么喜欢看碧玉

2400
01:57:53,866 --> 01:57:57,099
肯定是喝咖啡都不加奶不加糖的吧

2401
01:58:06,666 --> 01:58:09,699
你的评价是不如半句再见

2402
01:58:14,066 --> 01:58:17,533
你的爱好比较混沌只喝黑咖啡

2403
01:58:17,600 --> 01:58:20,066
你不会不加奶也不加糖吧

2404
01:58:25,166 --> 01:58:26,199
叠罗汉是吧

2405
01:58:26,200 --> 01:58:28,300
主播脑子里都是什么我不好好说

2406
01:58:28,300 --> 01:58:30,300
你们小的时候没有玩过吗

2407
01:58:30,400 --> 01:58:31,700
叠叠乐的游戏

2408
01:58:31,700 --> 01:58:34,533
一个人叠在另一个人身上的游戏

2409
01:58:34,933 --> 01:58:39,533
很很有互动意义很能互相教育的游戏

2410
01:58:39,533 --> 01:58:41,499
你们都没有经历过吗

2411
01:58:41,600 --> 01:58:43,766
你们是不是没有童年呀

2412
01:58:45,933 --> 01:58:47,933
你们是不是都没有童年的

2413
01:58:51,700 --> 01:58:52,933
男生很喜欢玩这个

2414
01:58:52,933 --> 01:58:55,133
对啊男生不但喜欢玩这个

2415
01:58:55,133 --> 01:58:58,266
男生还喜欢搞一些奇怪的东西

2416
01:59:00,666 --> 01:59:03,533
主播你在上面还是在下面呀

2417
01:59:03,866 --> 01:59:06,133
我一般都是在背上鼓掌的

2418
01:59:11,566 --> 01:59:13,133
都是在边上鼓掌的

2419
01:59:13,133 --> 01:59:15,566
主播小的时候可不合群了呢

2420
01:59:15,566 --> 01:59:18,566
所以说就这种非常亲密的集体活动

2421
01:59:18,566 --> 01:59:19,733
一般都不参加

2422
01:59:19,733 --> 01:59:20,999
一般就看热闹

2423
01:59:21,700 --> 01:59:23,666
我们发这种游戏叫做什么

2424
01:59:24,266 --> 01:59:26,966
我不许你说我的爷爷是狗屎

2425
01:59:27,066 --> 01:59:28,766
你凭什么这么说他们

2426
01:59:29,366 --> 01:59:30,699
阿鲁巴对啊

2427
01:59:34,933 --> 01:59:36,733
我不信你说我的阴天人

2428
01:59:36,733 --> 01:59:38,533
你怎么能这么说他们呢

2429
01:59:38,533 --> 01:59:40,199
就算他们就是这样的

2430
01:59:40,200 --> 01:59:41,800
你也要给他们留面子呀

2431
01:59:41,800 --> 01:59:43,800
因为他们是我的阴天人

2432
01:59:45,533 --> 01:59:47,533
你是从和爱鲁班派去的

2433
01:59:47,533 --> 01:59:49,499
一看你就是老那个什么

2434
01:59:50,400 --> 01:59:52,800
一看你就是老老呃

2435
01:59:53,166 --> 01:59:55,333
都不好说指挥官是吧

2436
01:59:56,666 --> 01:59:58,333
体验验人

2437
01:59:58,333 --> 01:59:59,133
哈哈

2438
02:00:00,066 --> 02:00:02,166
哎我们这边叫开飞机

2439
02:00:02,166 --> 02:00:03,999
哎你们那边都叫二楼吧

2440
02:00:04,000 --> 02:00:06,333
我刚刚我最早直播的时候其实我

2441
02:00:06,533 --> 02:00:08,733
我讲过这个东西哇

2442
02:00:08,800 --> 02:00:09,900
微博热搜第一

2443
02:00:09,900 --> 02:00:13,266
27岁男子打游戏到凌晨3点突发心梗

2444
02:00:13,266 --> 02:00:15,666
家人们拜拜886我要下播了

2445
02:00:16,066 --> 02:00:17,166
你们也早点睡觉吧

2446
02:00:17,166 --> 02:00:18,666
凌晨3点了

2447
02:00:18,666 --> 02:00:20,366
别别直接那什么了

2448
02:00:22,500 --> 02:00:23,866
都给我啊了

2449
02:00:26,933 --> 02:00:31,466
27岁的小戴身高1.65体重80公斤

2450
02:00:31,466 --> 02:00:34,133
是自由职业者经常通宵达旦

2451
02:00:34,133 --> 02:00:35,699
平时喜欢玩游戏

2452
02:00:35,900 --> 02:00:37,766
他感到左胸右痛右闷

2453
02:00:37,766 --> 02:00:39,599
被诊断为急性心梗

2454
02:00:45,733 --> 02:00:48,133
要狠狠的摸摸自己的胸口

2455
02:00:54,766 --> 02:00:56,466
最近就觉得心不舒服

2456
02:00:56,466 --> 02:00:59,066
我还跟大家是不是讨论过那个心肌

2457
02:00:59,066 --> 02:01:02,666
炎的事我昨天休息了一下午

2458
02:01:02,666 --> 02:01:04,533
下午又睡觉晚上又睡觉

2459
02:01:05,200 --> 02:01:07,066
睡完了之后觉得好多了

2460
02:01:07,066 --> 02:01:08,999
就是颈椎病有点犯了

2461
02:01:09,000 --> 02:01:12,100
但是别的部分就好多正方形

2462
02:01:13,000 --> 02:01:14,100
有点慌了

2463
02:01:14,100 --> 02:01:15,200
大家要注意休息

2464
02:01:15,200 --> 02:01:16,366
建议大家多睡觉

2465
02:01:16,366 --> 02:01:17,666
对我建议大家多睡觉

2466
02:01:17,666 --> 02:01:19,566
香草每天白天肯定特别忙

2467
02:01:19,566 --> 02:01:21,099
晚上还要给我打招呼

2468
02:01:21,333 --> 02:01:24,099
还要看直播还要跟阴间时间的全勤

2469
02:01:24,133 --> 02:01:26,666
还跟着我就来回乱换时间段

2470
02:01:26,666 --> 02:01:27,899
我我不希望

2471
02:01:29,066 --> 02:01:30,266
我还不下播

2472
02:01:30,266 --> 02:01:33,366
我我今天不是说要直播学习的吗

2473
02:01:34,366 --> 02:01:37,199
监督一下我自己不能再当混子了

2474
02:01:37,200 --> 02:01:39,733
要监督一下我自己嗯嗯嗯

2475
02:01:46,566 --> 02:01:48,699
你们想不想以前的妍妍啊

2476
02:01:48,700 --> 02:01:52,166
我想我的娃娃了我能把娃娃抱回来吗

2477
02:01:53,200 --> 02:01:55,866
不许下播哥们提前睡个觉了你

2478
02:01:55,866 --> 02:01:57,966
怎么提前睡觉呀你作弊

2479
02:01:59,766 --> 02:02:01,066
我想我的娃娃

2480
02:02:01,133 --> 02:02:03,099
让我抱一会吧

2481
02:02:15,600 --> 02:02:16,966
我想黑猫眼了

2482
02:02:16,966 --> 02:02:19,299
我也想黑猫眼了

2483
02:02:20,266 --> 02:02:21,066
哎

2484
02:02:21,666 --> 02:02:23,733
我的蝴蝶结呢

2485
02:02:25,100 --> 02:02:26,700
很喜欢燕燕的一句话

2486
02:02:26,700 --> 02:02:28,266
小燕燕像苍蝇宝宝

2487
02:02:28,266 --> 02:02:29,999
你才像苍蝇宝宝呢

2488
02:02:30,000 --> 02:02:30,800
哼

2489
02:02:32,200 --> 02:02:33,900
莎西布里嘿嘿

2490
02:02:37,366 --> 02:02:39,199
好久不见哦

2491
02:02:46,200 --> 02:02:47,966
左右晃晃真舒服

2492
02:02:50,300 --> 02:02:51,666
好久不见呀

2493
02:02:57,266 --> 02:02:58,999
有一种作战服的感觉

2494
02:02:59,000 --> 02:03:00,800
是吗明明是礼服哎

2495
02:03:00,800 --> 02:03:02,766
作战服在下一个版本了

2496
02:03:02,766 --> 02:03:04,133
这是我的礼服

2497
02:03:05,733 --> 02:03:08,599
有没有作战服在下一个版本的

2498
02:03:22,000 --> 02:03:24,466
好久都没有用这个模型了

2499
02:03:26,266 --> 02:03:28,899
我来到你的城市

2500
02:03:29,133 --> 02:03:30,866
怎么泳装是作战服

2501
02:03:30,866 --> 02:03:34,766
不是的情人节限定但是也是作战服

2502
02:03:37,600 --> 02:03:40,333
爱情魔法少女才能发挥出

2503
02:03:40,366 --> 02:03:41,866
最强大的魔力

2504
02:03:42,500 --> 02:03:44,000
这是谁说的呢

2505
02:03:44,000 --> 02:03:46,400
我不知道可能是我自己说的

2506
02:03:48,533 --> 02:03:50,266
如果我会跟

2507
02:03:51,300 --> 02:03:52,166
那种

2508
02:03:52,366 --> 02:03:55,366
跟人签订契约的怪兽来许愿的话

2509
02:03:55,366 --> 02:03:57,299
我会许下什么愿望

2510
02:03:58,466 --> 02:04:00,333
如果你们你们去

2511
02:04:01,300 --> 02:04:03,766
跟人千里挑一魔法少女许愿的话

2512
02:04:03,766 --> 02:04:05,466
你们会许什么愿望愿呢

2513
02:04:07,200 --> 02:04:09,100
一定可以实现的一个愿望

2514
02:04:09,100 --> 02:04:11,966
但是如果许特别特别大的愿望的话

2515
02:04:11,966 --> 02:04:12,899
就会被扭曲

2516
02:04:12,900 --> 02:04:15,766
比如说我想要整个世界都没有战争

2517
02:04:15,766 --> 02:04:17,499
这可能很困难但是

2518
02:04:18,266 --> 02:04:21,566
这个人他就会以把全世界的人都杀死

2519
02:04:21,566 --> 02:04:22,333
这种情况

2520
02:04:22,333 --> 02:04:24,166
既然没有人了就没有战争了

2521
02:04:24,166 --> 02:04:26,399
就会以这种扭曲的方式实现

2522
02:04:29,866 --> 02:04:33,133
为什么许愿说我让我一辈子吃不饱呀

2523
02:04:33,366 --> 02:04:36,366
永远不死的话可能就失去灵魂

2524
02:04:36,366 --> 02:04:37,566
或者失去肉体

2525
02:04:37,566 --> 02:04:38,699
失去自我意志

2526
02:04:38,700 --> 02:04:40,100
只是一个空壳

2527
02:04:40,100 --> 02:04:43,366
永远不死要要衡量自己的能力的

2528
02:04:44,566 --> 02:04:47,266
你会不会突然之间需要永远不死

2529
02:04:47,266 --> 02:04:48,199
都来了

2530
02:04:49,566 --> 02:04:51,966
没有什么好实现的好好活就好

2531
02:04:51,966 --> 02:04:52,999
紫色咖啡

2532
02:04:53,466 --> 02:04:54,099
哈哈哈

2533
02:04:54,100 --> 02:04:54,900
我为什么不能

2534
02:04:54,900 --> 02:04:55,933
是紫色猫雷啊

2535
02:04:55,933 --> 02:04:57,533
我觉得我长得比较像猫雷

2536
02:04:58,300 --> 02:05:00,333
下个版本是攻速装

2537
02:05:00,366 --> 02:05:01,566
差不多吧

2538
02:05:02,966 --> 02:05:05,966
本人昨晚错过了我的直播

2539
02:05:06,166 --> 02:05:07,599
没关系今天看也可以

2540
02:05:07,600 --> 02:05:08,333
我许愿一天

2541
02:05:08,333 --> 02:05:10,333
一天24小时不是叫加班

2542
02:05:10,733 --> 02:05:13,099
要不我变成一个加班机器是吧

2543
02:05:13,966 --> 02:05:15,966
你永远吃二米饭

2544
02:05:16,866 --> 02:05:18,299
这么这么

2545
02:05:18,900 --> 02:05:22,133
这么宝贵的许愿机会你就用来学我

2546
02:05:22,133 --> 02:05:23,599
永远吃二米饭

2547
02:05:28,400 --> 02:05:29,400
一天三顿

2548
02:05:29,400 --> 02:05:30,700
永远二米饭

2549
02:05:31,300 --> 02:05:32,666
你把我干烂算了

2550
02:05:32,666 --> 02:05:34,099
主播今天什么时候下播

2551
02:05:34,100 --> 02:05:37,066
今天今天不是特别想下播

2552
02:05:40,200 --> 02:05:42,333
许愿蓝色药丸可以吗

2553
02:05:43,000 --> 02:05:44,566
也不是不行

2554
02:06:00,733 --> 02:06:02,399
把我干了算了

2555
02:06:02,400 --> 02:06:03,966
是吗把你干了

2556
02:06:07,400 --> 02:06:08,400
你要感染谁

2557
02:06:08,400 --> 02:06:09,366
燕燕好2

2558
02:06:09,366 --> 02:06:10,766
谁说的我好2

2559
02:06:12,533 --> 02:06:14,299
我一直都很聪明的

2560
02:06:14,300 --> 02:06:15,766
谁说的我好2

2561
02:06:20,500 --> 02:06:22,866
利率跟实际利率

2562
02:06:41,500 --> 02:06:43,500
等一下可能要直播学习了

2563
02:06:43,500 --> 02:06:47,300
家人们到我每天应该下播的那个时候

2564
02:06:47,366 --> 02:06:50,899
然后就开始转一个直播的学习

2565
02:06:52,133 --> 02:06:52,799
这种话吗

2566
02:06:52,800 --> 02:06:53,533
也能说吗

2567
02:06:53,533 --> 02:06:54,333
主播

2568
02:06:55,133 --> 02:06:56,133
我刚才说啥了

2569
02:06:56,133 --> 02:06:59,333
我不知道我刚才在看别的东西

2570
02:06:59,400 --> 02:07:00,066
说的什么

2571
02:07:00,066 --> 02:07:01,399
起来直播说这种话

2572
02:07:01,400 --> 02:07:04,366
下播玩多大是不是天天开银趴

2573
02:07:04,400 --> 02:07:05,700
银趴是什么意思啊

2574
02:07:05,700 --> 02:07:07,800
喵好似喵好似喵

2575
02:07:08,166 --> 02:07:11,566
这个米亚蜜啊只会跟恋爱人开趴喵

2576
02:07:11,866 --> 02:07:13,266
谢谢不言吐的打call

2577
02:07:13,266 --> 02:07:13,766
爱了爱了

2578
02:07:13,766 --> 02:07:14,933
很牛啊牛啊

2579
02:07:15,066 --> 02:07:16,099
爱了一个到

2580
02:07:16,200 --> 02:07:17,866
还有主播不敢念的话吗

2581
02:07:17,866 --> 02:07:19,133
你太小看主播了

2582
02:07:19,133 --> 02:07:20,533
我是猴子踢

2583
02:07:28,900 --> 02:07:29,866
嗯问号干嘛

2584
02:07:37,566 --> 02:07:39,866
为什么问号为什么问号

2585
02:07:40,966 --> 02:07:42,133
叫操办

2586
02:07:43,100 --> 02:07:44,100
我叫操办

2587
02:07:44,100 --> 02:07:45,133
你的仪式

2588
02:07:48,566 --> 02:07:50,999
呀指挥哥烟烟人开炮

2589
02:07:51,000 --> 02:07:51,800
喵

2590
02:07:52,566 --> 02:07:54,466
主播真的紫色烟烟

2591
02:07:54,500 --> 02:07:56,500
我不一直都是紫色烟烟吗

2592
02:07:57,366 --> 02:07:59,366
不要酒人烟烟人开炮

2593
02:08:00,666 --> 02:08:01,733
这是否有点

2594
02:08:01,733 --> 02:08:04,066
咋了咋了有问题吗

2595
02:08:04,066 --> 02:08:05,733
没有问题啊嗯

2596
02:08:09,066 --> 02:08:11,266
粉丝红包作战第17名

2597
02:08:11,266 --> 02:08:12,066
这什么

2598
02:08:13,100 --> 02:08:14,000
家人们这个

2599
02:08:14,000 --> 02:08:15,800
粉丝红包作战是什么

2600
02:08:17,700 --> 02:08:18,900
这什么活动啊

2601
02:08:18,900 --> 02:08:19,966
我们能冲榜吗

2602
02:08:19,966 --> 02:08:22,466
我操我才发现我们还有这个哎

2603
02:08:27,566 --> 02:08:28,899
烟烟的猫猫可爱

2604
02:08:28,900 --> 02:08:30,733
那当然可爱了嘿嘿

2605
02:08:31,100 --> 02:08:32,600
啊就打三天啊

2606
02:08:32,600 --> 02:08:33,900
我们能打到吗

2607
02:08:33,900 --> 02:08:34,800
这什么呀

2608
02:08:35,400 --> 02:08:40,500
春节快乐粉丝勋章7天300块钱人气红包

2609
02:08:40,533 --> 02:08:43,199
总榜冠军给300块钱

2610
02:08:46,500 --> 02:08:47,533
算了吧算了吧

2611
02:08:47,866 --> 02:08:48,733
算了吧

2612
02:08:49,366 --> 02:08:50,666
我不是很想打了

2613
02:08:50,666 --> 02:08:51,933
好像没有什么用

2614
02:08:52,800 --> 02:08:54,500
没有什么太大的用处

2615
02:08:54,600 --> 02:08:57,200
啊主要我们现在第十七

2616
02:08:57,366 --> 02:08:58,799
我们现在第十七

2617
02:08:58,800 --> 02:09:01,766
然后如果我们能一直保持前50的话

2618
02:09:01,866 --> 02:09:05,399
我们可以获得春节粉丝王头像框七天

2619
02:09:07,266 --> 02:09:09,533
哈哈哈我都不想打的一个活动啊

2620
02:09:10,800 --> 02:09:12,700
别打了别打了没意思

2621
02:09:12,700 --> 02:09:14,200
真真没意思

2622
02:09:17,300 --> 02:09:18,200
好玩啊

2623
02:09:21,266 --> 02:09:24,333
这个头型也不好看80万多了点

2624
02:09:24,333 --> 02:09:26,299
什么是80万多了点

2625
02:09:26,800 --> 02:09:29,500
主播是怎么打过DJ棍

2626
02:09:29,900 --> 02:09:31,600
哈哈哈

2627
02:09:31,933 --> 02:09:33,866
因为发什么不敢抢

2628
02:09:33,866 --> 02:09:35,299
怎么就不敢抢了

2629
02:09:35,400 --> 02:09:36,200
but

2630
02:09:36,866 --> 02:09:39,499
so so damn hard

2631
02:09:40,066 --> 02:09:40,866
i

2632
02:09:41,533 --> 02:09:43,299
need a new life

2633
02:09:44,733 --> 02:09:47,566
新的一年爷爷会继续陪伴咱们吗

2634
02:09:47,566 --> 02:09:48,933
当然会啦

2635
02:09:49,966 --> 02:09:51,299
当然会了

2636
02:09:52,466 --> 02:09:53,466
放心

2637
02:09:54,600 --> 02:09:56,100
i gotta get up get up get up get up get up get up get up get up

2638
02:09:56,100 --> 02:09:56,900
get up get up get up

2639
02:09:57,266 --> 02:09:58,266
get up get up get

2640
02:10:01,533 --> 02:10:02,933
up get up get up get up get up get

2641
02:10:04,766 --> 02:10:05,566
up

2642
02:10:05,900 --> 02:10:06,533
get up get up get up get up get up get up

2643
02:10:06,533 --> 02:10:07,399
get up get up get up get up get up get up

2644
02:10:07,400 --> 02:10:08,200
get up get up get up get up

2645
02:10:09,166 --> 02:10:11,733
i work so hard i'm working out

2646
02:10:11,733 --> 02:10:14,333
我也快要开始我的学习时间了

2647
02:10:14,333 --> 02:10:16,166
家人们我们是在聊会天

2648
02:10:16,166 --> 02:10:18,366
还是主播现在就开始摁圈呢

2649
02:10:18,466 --> 02:10:21,599
and i'm working so so damn hard

2650
02:10:22,333 --> 02:10:24,766
i am working for the man

2651
02:10:24,766 --> 02:10:27,666
so hard i am working

2652
02:10:28,200 --> 02:10:31,200
因为是在吃啥东西来着

2653
02:10:31,200 --> 02:10:33,700
i'm working for that man

2654
02:10:34,500 --> 02:10:35,300
i

2655
02:10:36,900 --> 02:10:39,500
i am working for the man

2656
02:10:40,166 --> 02:10:42,966
直播学习自己骗自己等我下播

2657
02:10:42,966 --> 02:10:43,699
我下播了

2658
02:10:43,700 --> 02:10:46,333
我就想直接去床上进行一个躺了

2659
02:10:46,333 --> 02:10:48,099
还不如自己骗自己呢

2660
02:10:49,300 --> 02:10:50,533
要不然我下播了

2661
02:10:50,533 --> 02:10:53,099
我就想直接去床上进行一个躺

2662
02:10:53,866 --> 02:10:56,199
晚安了主播要睡觉了

2663
02:10:56,466 --> 02:10:58,733
晚安晚安张老爷要私密

2664
02:11:00,366 --> 02:11:03,566
把原始日常做的睡觉晚安晚安都放正

2665
02:11:03,966 --> 02:11:04,999
哎呀甜蜜

2666
02:11:05,966 --> 02:11:07,366
早学晚学都是学

2667
02:11:07,366 --> 02:11:10,566
可爱你欧西给可爱你欧西给

2668
02:11:11,866 --> 02:11:13,966
我没有谁加班时间啊

2669
02:11:13,966 --> 02:11:15,499
这叫监督

2670
02:11:15,566 --> 02:11:16,933
监督自己

2671
02:11:17,300 --> 02:11:20,400
懂不懂监督自己的含金量

2672
02:11:20,400 --> 02:11:21,600
哈哈哈

2673
02:11:21,966 --> 02:11:25,933
你们根本就不明白你们不懂的

2674
02:11:26,866 --> 02:11:28,466
主播水时间有什么

2675
02:11:28,466 --> 02:11:31,466
对啊我水也水不完你还怕啥呀

2676
02:11:32,000 --> 02:11:34,933
谢谢大叔林迪的分享非常感谢

2677
02:11:35,200 --> 02:11:39,000
all right on down i work so hard

2678
02:11:39,600 --> 02:11:45,166
on down i work so hard i work down so hard

2679
02:11:45,800 --> 02:11:46,600
哈哈哈

2680
02:11:49,500 --> 02:11:52,333
别给我自己也摸了那不行

2681
02:11:53,066 --> 02:11:56,466
i need a new dance job now

2682
02:11:57,933 --> 02:11:59,699
欢迎娜娜大叔

2683
02:12:00,066 --> 02:12:03,399
晚上好名义绿绿

2684
02:12:04,600 --> 02:12:06,933
虽然虽然主播流血

2685
02:12:06,966 --> 02:12:09,266
但是主播还是狠狠的

2686
02:12:09,266 --> 02:12:10,066
呃

2687
02:12:12,100 --> 02:12:13,133
主播还是狠狠的

2688
02:12:13,133 --> 02:12:14,966
进行一个中文的翻译啊

2689
02:12:18,400 --> 02:12:19,200
耶

2690
02:12:20,200 --> 02:12:21,000
呼

2691
02:12:22,266 --> 02:12:24,133
太爱你了呼呼

2692
02:12:28,300 --> 02:12:33,466
我把它狠狠的贴在贴在那个这边吧

2693
02:12:35,933 --> 02:12:39,733
进行一个儿童学习教学

2694
02:12:40,266 --> 02:12:44,399
进行一个考试的复习

2695
02:12:46,533 --> 02:12:49,999
添加素材窗口补妆

2696
02:13:14,800 --> 02:13:15,900
放在这里

2697
02:13:16,800 --> 02:13:17,866
把它放在这里

2698
02:13:17,866 --> 02:13:19,666
我等一下换一下那个什么

2699
02:13:19,966 --> 02:13:20,399
等下

2700
02:13:20,400 --> 02:13:24,300
换一下换一下那个呃我们我们那个

2701
02:13:24,500 --> 02:13:27,000
UI的版本然后就可以了

2702
02:13:27,900 --> 02:13:29,900
你们的PPT为什么还有中文

2703
02:13:29,900 --> 02:13:31,566
那是因为那是我加上的

2704
02:13:31,566 --> 02:13:34,166
那那不是他自己带的那是我加的

2705
02:13:35,500 --> 02:13:36,733
哎呀我要把宝宝学会

2706
02:13:36,733 --> 02:13:39,266
加班机原声在更新

2707
02:13:39,266 --> 02:13:40,366
关机睡一觉

2708
02:13:40,600 --> 02:13:41,666
可以听呗

2709
02:13:41,966 --> 02:13:43,366
不是红关机啊

2710
02:13:43,666 --> 02:13:46,133
一回来主播开始学习我就狠狠的学

2711
02:13:46,133 --> 02:13:47,066
有什么问题吗

2712
02:13:47,066 --> 02:13:48,699
因为这是我自己家的啦

2713
02:13:48,700 --> 02:13:51,066
嘿呀看到PPT就困

2714
02:13:51,066 --> 02:13:53,666
我还没开始干嘛呢你怎么就困了

2715
02:14:03,933 --> 02:14:05,299
他站着我哭死

2716
02:14:05,300 --> 02:14:08,400
不行了不学了不行了不学已经

2717
02:14:08,400 --> 02:14:11,000
没有没有下面主播给我讲讲

2718
02:14:11,000 --> 02:14:12,266
主播还啥也没干呢

2719
02:14:12,266 --> 02:14:13,799
主播没咋学习最近

2720
02:14:14,733 --> 02:14:15,766
我没法跟你讲啊

2721
02:14:15,766 --> 02:14:17,599
等我学完我才能给你讲

2722
02:15:27,966 --> 02:15:31,933
前面的同学你挡住看PPT了我不要

2723
02:15:34,066 --> 02:15:35,933
狠狠的进行一个翻译

2724
02:15:50,066 --> 02:15:52,666
主播的前一个月基本都是摸过来

2725
02:15:52,666 --> 02:15:54,333
然后成这些了

2726
02:15:59,266 --> 02:16:01,599
啊这个非常帅

2727
02:16:18,300 --> 02:16:21,066
我把这个歌稍微关一下

2728
02:16:22,900 --> 02:16:23,933
好熟悉

2729
02:16:25,100 --> 02:16:26,300
因为要睡着了

2730
02:16:26,300 --> 02:16:28,100
我怎么就要睡着了呢

2731
02:16:32,700 --> 02:16:35,933
这不就是我现在学的东西不就是

2732
02:16:54,366 --> 02:16:55,999
就是这个意思吗

2733
02:17:01,366 --> 02:17:02,299
我的天啊

2734
02:17:02,300 --> 02:17:03,400
这有啥差别

2735
02:17:03,400 --> 02:17:04,566
这不是都一样

2736
02:17:06,800 --> 02:17:07,966
快跟我玩

2737
02:17:08,133 --> 02:17:08,933
玩

2738
02:17:09,566 --> 02:17:13,499
大家那个要要休息早点休息吧啊

2739
02:17:22,333 --> 02:17:23,999
我能不能给我讲讲

2740
02:17:24,100 --> 02:17:26,466
我我还都得学完才能讲讲

2741
02:17:26,466 --> 02:17:27,733
我把这个看完之后

2742
02:17:27,733 --> 02:17:30,733
我再给你们讲一下都说了些啥吧

2743
02:17:31,166 --> 02:17:31,933
嗯

2744
02:17:31,933 --> 02:17:34,133
把这一篇看完我给你们说

2745
02:17:34,133 --> 02:17:35,366
说一遍说一遍

2746
02:17:35,366 --> 02:17:36,299
那个什么

2747
02:17:39,866 --> 02:17:43,166
通货膨胀和真正的

2748
02:17:51,700 --> 02:17:53,200
这叫催眠了

2749
02:17:53,200 --> 02:17:56,400
确实挺挺催眠的这是个啥呀

2750
02:17:57,166 --> 02:17:58,933
他这也不完整啊

2751
02:18:02,566 --> 02:18:06,199
还是光看PPT还不行晚安晚安大家伙

2752
02:18:12,900 --> 02:18:16,100
刚才大大概就说的就是这个这个

2753
02:18:16,933 --> 02:18:20,466
就这一块然后这第二块可能是跟那个

2754
02:18:20,733 --> 02:18:22,199
在国内学的也是这些

2755
02:18:22,200 --> 02:18:24,733
其实也差不多了都差不多了

2756
02:18:27,200 --> 02:18:30,700
只要不知道是哪门课就是这个

2757
02:18:32,500 --> 02:18:34,800
费写的这个理论是

2758
02:18:36,400 --> 02:18:39,766
名义的利率和实际利率之间的关系

2759
02:18:39,766 --> 02:18:42,566
这个i是通货膨胀的这个率

2760
02:18:42,733 --> 02:18:46,066
然后这个实际的利率就等于这个

2761
02:18:47,266 --> 02:18:48,066
呃

2762
02:18:48,333 --> 02:18:50,666
名义的利率减去通货膨胀率

2763
02:18:50,666 --> 02:18:53,499
除以这个一加上通货膨胀的利率

2764
02:18:53,500 --> 02:18:56,066
所以说就可以得出一个结论

2765
02:18:57,733 --> 02:18:58,533
这个

2766
02:19:00,400 --> 02:19:01,933
名义的这个通货

2767
02:19:02,000 --> 02:19:03,300
膨胀名义的利率

2768
02:19:03,300 --> 02:19:05,100
就是实际的加上这个通货

2769
02:19:05,100 --> 02:19:06,266
膨胀的这个i

2770
02:19:06,466 --> 02:19:07,266
对

2771
02:19:07,700 --> 02:19:09,466
应该不是宏观经济

2772
02:19:09,600 --> 02:19:11,466
因为我学过了公司金融

2773
02:19:11,466 --> 02:19:13,066
差不多就是这个感觉

2774
02:19:15,200 --> 02:19:18,300
然后我们这边课都是按数字来编的

2775
02:19:18,300 --> 02:19:21,133
然后我就不知道他这个应该是

2776
02:19:21,733 --> 02:19:23,899
网上应该懂这些东西

2777
02:19:24,400 --> 02:19:28,133
没办法呀有用或者没用我也得学呀

2778
02:19:29,400 --> 02:19:30,733
这不行了呀

2779
02:19:31,966 --> 02:19:35,466
但是我室友跟我跟我说了他怎么搞的

2780
02:19:36,133 --> 02:19:37,466
他难受的

2781
02:19:37,566 --> 02:19:38,933
不难受呀

2782
02:19:39,466 --> 02:19:40,566
等一下你

2783
02:19:41,500 --> 02:19:44,000
下来和我一起看看那个

2784
02:20:04,600 --> 02:20:07,133
哎我这Wifi怎么坏掉了

2785
02:20:07,533 --> 02:20:09,599
听懂了谢谢音乐老师

2786
02:20:09,600 --> 02:20:10,500
你听懂了吗

2787
02:20:10,500 --> 02:20:11,466
我才不信

2788
02:20:11,800 --> 02:20:12,966
主播在学习

2789
02:20:12,966 --> 02:20:14,733
自己都搞不明白了

2790
02:20:21,800 --> 02:20:22,600
love love love

2791
02:20:30,600 --> 02:20:32,800
get up

2792
02:20:34,600 --> 02:20:35,666
get up

2793
02:20:37,100 --> 02:20:40,333
怀疑他这个东西得跟着他那个

2794
02:20:40,700 --> 02:20:42,900
上课的那个视频一起看

2795
02:20:43,200 --> 02:20:46,066
但我放视频的话我的直播就容易卡死

2796
02:20:49,400 --> 02:20:51,100
就因为看着就头疼

2797
02:20:51,866 --> 02:20:53,566
我以前考试之前也干过

2798
02:20:53,566 --> 02:20:56,733
就边做题然后边边那个什么的

2799
02:21:16,900 --> 02:21:20,300
这可能是复习吧因为他只是第一周的

2800
02:21:23,200 --> 02:21:24,533
哇这啥呀

2801
02:21:49,900 --> 02:21:51,000
看又不头疼

2802
02:21:51,000 --> 02:21:52,333
看着我会头晕

2803
02:21:52,333 --> 02:21:54,466
我也是看着我会晕

2804
02:21:58,366 --> 02:22:00,766
这是答案跟对照吧

2805
02:22:02,100 --> 02:22:04,166
逐渐不对劲起来了

2806
02:22:10,533 --> 02:22:11,299
会不会出现

2807
02:22:11,300 --> 02:22:14,100
线上授课型VIP有啥差别吗

2808
02:22:14,733 --> 02:22:17,899
线上授课型的VIP跟正常的VIP

2809
02:22:18,266 --> 02:22:20,666
不就是多了一个皮套吗

2810
02:22:20,666 --> 02:22:23,166
其实我要是能学明白给你们讲

2811
02:22:23,166 --> 02:22:25,333
那跟老课的网课老师有啥差别

2812
02:22:25,333 --> 02:22:27,533
不是数学是金融

2813
02:22:27,800 --> 02:22:29,566
我没讲了没讲了

2814
02:22:29,600 --> 02:22:32,366
主播就是先看一眼提醒了

2815
02:22:33,800 --> 02:22:35,733
看一眼是不是对音的

2816
02:22:35,733 --> 02:22:37,599
我怕我看错顺序

2817
02:22:38,900 --> 02:22:42,333
因为现在我还没学呢我咋做这些东西

2818
02:22:53,333 --> 02:22:56,733
总怀疑我好像漏了什么东西没有看

2819
02:22:57,900 --> 02:22:59,533
有微授课呀

2820
02:23:00,200 --> 02:23:03,933
一直都是有那个有授课有微的

2821
02:23:12,533 --> 02:23:13,999
念妈妈的

2822
02:23:14,000 --> 02:23:16,100
什么叫念妈妈的

2823
02:23:19,466 --> 02:23:20,499
你真看不懂

2824
02:23:20,500 --> 02:23:21,500
我也看不懂

2825
02:23:21,933 --> 02:23:22,866
我也看不懂

2826
02:23:22,866 --> 02:23:24,533
不要不要怀疑自己

2827
02:23:25,566 --> 02:23:27,399
hi everybody okay

2828
02:23:28,200 --> 02:23:29,933
so to get started on this

2829
02:23:30,733 --> 02:23:33,999
stuff with the financial markets and that sort of thing

2830
02:23:35,700 --> 02:23:38,100
we could if we were in class

2831
02:23:38,100 --> 02:23:40,366
i would be able to pull up some stuff

2832
02:23:40,400 --> 02:23:41,800
like from the web and so on

2833
02:23:41,800 --> 02:23:43,933
but because of the differences in our time

2834
02:23:43,933 --> 02:23:44,733
and when we're doing this

2835
02:23:44,733 --> 02:23:45,866
and so i'm just going to

2836
02:23:45,866 --> 02:23:48,733
like to talk to you generally about a few things just to cut

2837
02:23:48,733 --> 02:23:49,799
a little points

2838
02:23:50,166 --> 02:23:52,399
that everybody is probably familiar with

2839
02:23:52,400 --> 02:23:54,566
but i just want to make sure okay

2840
02:23:54,800 --> 02:23:57,600
so that we all kind of start out you know

2841
02:23:59,466 --> 02:24:01,133
having what it is we need to

2842
02:24:01,966 --> 02:24:05,699
okay now just before we continue

2843
02:24:06,666 --> 02:24:07,466
please

2844
02:24:07,533 --> 02:24:10,599
everybody remember what we're doing here what we're doing here

2845
02:24:10,600 --> 02:24:12,500
is we're looking at investment

2846
02:24:12,900 --> 02:24:16,500
we're looking at constructing a portfolio

2847
02:24:16,500 --> 02:24:19,900
that is an investment portfolio we're not talking about doing

2848
02:24:19,900 --> 02:24:20,966
trades on anyone

2849
02:24:21,000 --> 02:24:23,000
都学了经济跟金融

2850
02:24:23,366 --> 02:24:26,166
专业课都学了and going how do we find that stuck

2851
02:24:26,533 --> 02:24:27,066
and okay

2852
02:24:27,066 --> 02:24:29,499
we found it okay we know we can we know that it's under value

2853
02:24:29,500 --> 02:24:32,333
so let's buy it boom when it's going to go up to 20

2854
02:24:32,366 --> 02:24:35,466
percent or 50 percent or something okay

2855
02:24:36,300 --> 02:24:37,533
that type of enough

2856
02:24:38,366 --> 02:24:40,499
开始都在讲一些啥东西啊

2857
02:24:40,500 --> 02:24:41,866
assets if you want in

2858
02:24:42,666 --> 02:24:44,066
your artistic endeavors

2859
02:24:45,366 --> 02:24:47,299
well i mean that's true

2860
02:24:47,666 --> 02:24:51,733
but what we're trying to do is construct a portfolio given the

2861
02:24:52,100 --> 02:24:53,533
science of finance

2862
02:24:53,800 --> 02:24:56,333
you know at least the basic science of finance

2863
02:24:56,366 --> 02:24:59,299
so that that portfolio makes some sort of sense

2864
02:24:59,700 --> 02:25:02,266
given that people will need to

2865
02:25:03,066 --> 02:25:05,999
match it to what their risk preference is

2866
02:25:06,000 --> 02:25:07,900
so some people can take on more risk than

2867
02:25:07,900 --> 02:25:09,066
others for all kinds of reasons

2868
02:25:09,066 --> 02:25:11,533
sometimes it's purely their makeup as people

2869
02:25:11,533 --> 02:25:12,899
sometimes it's their age

2870
02:25:12,900 --> 02:25:16,100
sometimes it's an institution that says listen we're trying to

2871
02:25:16,300 --> 02:25:19,000
indemnidize our employees so you know

2872
02:25:19,000 --> 02:25:21,400
we want to make sure that when they leave this jobs they

2873
02:25:21,400 --> 02:25:23,866
have a Lisa decent pot of money to

2874
02:25:24,066 --> 02:25:26,999
try and retire on the same is true for the government

2875
02:25:27,000 --> 02:25:28,333
i mean look at what the bank of

2876
02:25:28,600 --> 02:25:31,400
i'm throwing out the bank of Canada but the finance department

2877
02:25:31,666 --> 02:25:34,333
you know is is is

2878
02:25:34,333 --> 02:25:35,599
it has a portfolio

2879
02:25:35,600 --> 02:25:38,166
that they want to make sure that they can keep on

2880
02:25:38,466 --> 02:25:39,066
you know

2881
02:25:39,066 --> 02:25:42,266
financing the economy so all of these things are portfolios

2882
02:25:42,600 --> 02:25:45,133
they have different sort of goals

2883
02:25:45,366 --> 02:25:49,599
but there is there some methodology we can use to make

2884
02:25:49,900 --> 02:25:53,166
rational investment decisions and there's theory behind this

2885
02:25:53,333 --> 02:25:55,066
starts with something called MPT

2886
02:25:55,066 --> 02:25:56,266
which stands for monument他

2887
02:25:56,266 --> 02:25:59,599
这个时候我好希望他可以上传到有管

2888
02:25:59,600 --> 02:26:03,100
这个时候就可以看看CC字幕了

2889
02:26:03,100 --> 02:26:05,300
就可以不用看那个

2890
02:26:05,566 --> 02:26:08,699
不用摁听了就可以有字幕了

2891
02:26:08,700 --> 02:26:11,000
我想要CC字幕

2892
02:26:12,266 --> 02:26:15,666
我不想我不想摁听

2893
02:26:22,500 --> 02:26:23,666
portfolio theory

2894
02:26:23,933 --> 02:26:27,899
and it gets it can get really really really complicated

2895
02:26:27,900 --> 02:26:29,133
sometimes it gets complicated

2896
02:26:29,133 --> 02:26:30,933
just because people are playing games

2897
02:26:31,100 --> 02:26:32,500
other times it gets complicated

2898
02:26:32,500 --> 02:26:34,866
because people have actually found some area

2899
02:26:35,700 --> 02:26:36,733
research okay

2900
02:26:37,500 --> 02:26:40,000
so that's what we're up to and this by the way

2901
02:26:40,400 --> 02:26:46,800
is the type of approach you take in academics in finance哎

2902
02:26:46,800 --> 02:26:47,800
那是什么

2903
02:26:48,533 --> 02:26:49,599
那是什么

2904
02:26:50,766 --> 02:26:52,366
我一般都是这个他

2905
02:26:52,366 --> 02:26:55,966
他自己带了我就用他他没有我就不用

2906
02:26:56,666 --> 02:26:58,566
还有这种东西啊

2907
02:27:11,466 --> 02:27:13,499
可以自动生成是吧

2908
02:27:13,500 --> 02:27:15,500
这么好真的假的

2909
02:27:18,900 --> 02:27:20,100
让我试试看

2910
02:27:24,100 --> 02:27:25,466
下载的好慢呐

2911
02:27:26,133 --> 02:27:27,366
真好真好

2912
02:27:27,466 --> 02:27:29,933
哎我觉得我其实不太像一个

2913
02:27:30,266 --> 02:27:31,866
靠谱的留学生

2914
02:27:32,900 --> 02:27:34,700
我在这边待的时间太短

2915
02:27:34,700 --> 02:27:37,100
了他是一个视频上传网站

2916
02:27:37,100 --> 02:27:38,000
我把这个东西

2917
02:27:38,000 --> 02:27:40,700
这个上传到那个我们讲课的东西

2918
02:27:40,766 --> 02:27:44,099
用这个网站弄的话他会不会不太好呀

2919
02:27:48,500 --> 02:27:50,733
剪映自动生成能生成英语的吗

2920
02:27:50,733 --> 02:27:54,333
我感觉他这个英文就是还还可以

2921
02:27:54,333 --> 02:27:55,566
大部分是高中单词

2922
02:27:55,566 --> 02:27:58,066
是因为因为他还没开始讲了

2923
02:27:58,200 --> 02:27:59,566
他还没开始讲课

2924
02:28:02,100 --> 02:28:06,266
and it's also the type of approach that is taken by the cfa

2925
02:28:06,966 --> 02:28:09,766
all right that's not to say that you can't be a warrant buffet

2926
02:28:09,766 --> 02:28:11,666
and get really in the weeds and stuff

2927
02:28:11,666 --> 02:28:12,466
and do

2928
02:28:12,466 --> 02:28:16,133
you know his old thing of Benjamin Graham and value investing

2929
02:28:16,133 --> 02:28:18,133
and yeah that there's still around

2930
02:28:18,133 --> 02:28:20,666
and it still kind of works and it's a little bit

2931
02:28:20,666 --> 02:28:23,466
like religion in some ways like people that believe in it

2932
02:28:23,500 --> 02:28:24,766
really believe in it

2933
02:28:25,000 --> 02:28:27,166
and you'll never convince them otherwise

2934
02:28:28,100 --> 02:28:29,900
but you know the point is

2935
02:28:32,200 --> 02:28:33,166
the real rate

2936
02:28:33,366 --> 02:28:34,166
is

2937
02:28:35,133 --> 02:28:36,333
we have to have some sort of

2938
02:28:37,400 --> 02:28:39,700
in my book this is chapter five

2939
02:28:39,933 --> 02:28:42,599
bodie um and uh

2940
02:28:43,066 --> 02:28:45,466
你们你们想看这个视频吗

2941
02:28:45,466 --> 02:28:47,566
你们想看的话我可以

2942
02:29:04,733 --> 02:29:07,133
i'm just gonna call it returns now first of all

2943
02:29:08,133 --> 02:29:09,199
everything is gonna involve

2944
02:29:09,333 --> 02:29:11,599
interest rates right because the interest rate interest rate

2945
02:29:11,600 --> 02:29:12,166
interest rate

2946
02:29:12,166 --> 02:29:14,766
that's what all financial instruments

2947
02:29:15,000 --> 02:29:16,700
markets are benchmarked off

2948
02:29:17,000 --> 02:29:18,900
and so it's in crucial that we

2949
02:29:19,066 --> 02:29:20,866
kind of understand interest rates now

2950
02:29:20,933 --> 02:29:23,199
the interest rate that we're going to deal with

2951
02:29:23,266 --> 02:29:24,199
for the time being

2952
02:29:24,200 --> 02:29:26,533
is just our regular old interest rate that we would

2953
02:29:26,533 --> 02:29:27,499
see in the market

2954
02:29:27,700 --> 02:29:29,066
so that would be our

2955
02:29:29,333 --> 02:29:30,733
nominal rate of interest

2956
02:29:31,000 --> 02:29:33,466
我会按照他的这个顺序

2957
02:29:33,466 --> 02:29:35,066
他讲的课的顺序

2958
02:29:35,066 --> 02:29:38,199
然后PPT我会按照他他到了

2959
02:29:38,200 --> 02:29:39,666
对到这个翻页了

2960
02:29:39,666 --> 02:29:40,466
家人们

2961
02:29:41,100 --> 02:29:41,966
哎呦突出来

2962
02:29:41,966 --> 02:29:43,199
大中午装修

2963
02:29:43,400 --> 02:29:46,466
我室友马上转学就要去NYU了

2964
02:29:49,133 --> 02:29:52,166
rate of your money just the growth rate of what you're about

2965
02:29:52,400 --> 02:29:54,900
what your assets are valued at in money

2966
02:29:55,100 --> 02:29:58,900
okay now necessarily what they can you know that your

2967
02:29:59,300 --> 02:30:01,333
did your standard living really go up

2968
02:30:01,500 --> 02:30:02,333
i mean are you really

2969
02:30:02,333 --> 02:30:06,133
are you able to consume more or live better on that money

2970
02:30:06,133 --> 02:30:08,733
that's real that's the real rate of return

2971
02:30:08,733 --> 02:30:12,466
but the nominal rate return is just a return on the money okay

2972
02:30:12,533 --> 02:30:15,399
the real rate is the purchasing power

2973
02:30:15,566 --> 02:30:17,966
so let's get something straight right away

2974
02:30:18,500 --> 02:30:20,900
we care at the end of the day

2975
02:30:20,900 --> 02:30:24,166
about our real rate we don't care about the nominal rate

2976
02:30:24,166 --> 02:30:26,399
that's just a way of keeping track of things

2977
02:30:26,966 --> 02:30:29,966
but the nominal rate is the one that we see

2978
02:30:30,400 --> 02:30:34,133
when we go when we look on the internet or we look at a

2979
02:30:34,733 --> 02:30:38,166
schedule of interest rates mortgage rates whatever they are

2980
02:30:38,533 --> 02:30:39,799
it's in money

2981
02:30:39,800 --> 02:30:42,400
because we're going to get paid that if it's a mortgage example

2982
02:30:42,400 --> 02:30:45,200
we're going to pay that rated money if it's a bond

2983
02:30:45,200 --> 02:30:46,900
we're going to get that amount of money

2984
02:30:46,900 --> 02:30:49,766
how much does that money really represent depends on

2985
02:30:49,766 --> 02:30:51,866
how much we could turn it into consumption

2986
02:30:52,766 --> 02:30:55,299
horse or a real savings as well

2987
02:30:55,366 --> 02:30:56,166
okay

2988
02:30:56,300 --> 02:30:57,100
so

2989
02:30:57,666 --> 02:30:59,966
the way we need to do that is to take the price out

2990
02:30:59,966 --> 02:31:01,266
and as you guys know that means

2991
02:31:01,266 --> 02:31:02,499
we take out the inflation right now

2992
02:31:02,500 --> 02:31:04,466
this is going to be really big considering what's going on

2993
02:31:04,466 --> 02:31:04,966
right now

2994
02:31:04,966 --> 02:31:08,133
right because inflation is back with the vengeance now

2995
02:31:08,366 --> 02:31:11,799
so let me just let's just be a little clear here about

2996
02:31:12,200 --> 02:31:14,066
some of these things so

2997
02:31:14,066 --> 02:31:17,866
the way to calculate the real rate is to take the nominal rate

2998
02:31:17,866 --> 02:31:20,466
whatever it is subtract the rate of interest

2999
02:31:20,466 --> 02:31:24,533
and then discount it by what's called the growth rate of return

3000
02:31:24,533 --> 02:31:25,866
the growth rate of return

3001
02:31:25,900 --> 02:31:30,500
so if if the implation rate was say 7 percent point 7 0

3002
02:31:30,533 --> 02:31:32,766
the growth rate is when you put a one in front of it

3003
02:31:33,000 --> 02:31:35,900
so when you put a one in front of something okay

3004
02:31:35,900 --> 02:31:38,266
you put x here you get the total return

3005
02:31:38,266 --> 02:31:39,333
you get you know whatever

3006
02:31:39,333 --> 02:31:39,933
this whatever

3007
02:31:39,933 --> 02:31:41,799
you had plus the seven percent so

3008
02:31:41,800 --> 02:31:45,466
if x was a hundred bucks this would be a hundred and seven okay

3009
02:31:45,533 --> 02:31:46,999
so when you just have the rate

3010
02:31:47,000 --> 02:31:49,000
you would take the hundred bucks you would go okay

3011
02:31:49,000 --> 02:31:50,533
seven percent okay

3012
02:31:50,533 --> 02:31:53,166
that's seven dollars and then you would add in you know

3013
02:31:53,166 --> 02:31:56,533
you do the two steps and you would get a hundred and a seven

3014
02:31:56,866 --> 02:32:01,533
so this gross rate just saves you doing all of this all right

3015
02:32:02,066 --> 02:32:03,533
so when you're discounting

3016
02:32:03,533 --> 02:32:05,799
you're discounting by the gross rate of

3017
02:32:05,800 --> 02:32:08,366
the normal the what the normal is minus

3018
02:32:09,466 --> 02:32:11,933
minus the investment divided by

3019
02:32:13,066 --> 02:32:15,399
that discount rate the discount rate is another way of

3020
02:32:15,400 --> 02:32:17,366
saying what you put in the denominator you're

3021
02:32:17,366 --> 02:32:18,499
pulling that down

3022
02:32:19,066 --> 02:32:20,966
by the amount in the denominator

3023
02:32:21,133 --> 02:32:24,066
so that would give you the real rate this is the real

3024
02:32:24,066 --> 02:32:26,266
and there's a word for this fisher equation

3025
02:32:26,266 --> 02:32:27,999
this is the one that you would use

3026
02:32:28,000 --> 02:32:30,500
like if you want things to be very accurate

3027
02:32:30,933 --> 02:32:32,466
in reality almost

3028
02:32:32,466 --> 02:32:34,699
always and you guys have seen this in the other courses

3029
02:32:34,700 --> 02:32:37,266
i'm absolutely sure you have right well

3030
02:32:37,266 --> 02:32:40,666
i should never say absolutely right in economics but you know

3031
02:32:40,900 --> 02:32:43,566
because i you know we've all done me

3032
02:32:44,700 --> 02:32:47,566
macro and this is what we normally do right here right

3033
02:32:47,900 --> 02:32:50,333
we normally take the real rate if we want it

3034
02:32:50,333 --> 02:32:52,466
we just take the nominal and we subtract

3035
02:32:52,900 --> 02:32:58,166
we subtract the rate the the nominal rate of interest

3036
02:32:58,666 --> 02:33:01,133
and we'll see a little bit later on

3037
02:33:01,600 --> 02:33:03,766
i'm sorry not eye is inflation here excuse me

3038
02:33:03,766 --> 02:33:07,766
i'm i'm sorry we're for weeks i know i said normal excuse me

3039
02:33:07,766 --> 02:33:08,599
i'm i'm

3040
02:33:09,300 --> 02:33:10,366
我不是人上

3041
02:33:10,466 --> 02:33:14,133
人啊i is inflation so we're trapping inflation and we are

3042
02:33:14,400 --> 02:33:17,966
we are discount about inflation so this is inflation

3043
02:33:18,966 --> 02:33:20,933
i got to tell you the reason for that right is

3044
02:33:20,933 --> 02:33:23,966
i'm always used to using

3045
02:33:24,000 --> 02:33:27,366
the Greek letter pie for inflation base so every time

3046
02:33:27,933 --> 02:33:29,899
textbooks and whatnot when they change it to i

3047
02:33:29,900 --> 02:33:32,300
and they don't very often do that when they do

3048
02:33:32,466 --> 02:33:33,766
i always pick stuff

3049
02:33:33,766 --> 02:33:38,133
so that's on me i'm sorry about that so this is you're

3050
02:33:38,300 --> 02:33:40,100
subtracted the inflation right

3051
02:33:40,100 --> 02:33:43,366
right so we can use this guy here

3052
02:33:43,366 --> 02:33:46,466
this so called shortcut it's not really a shortcut right

3053
02:33:46,466 --> 02:33:47,666
it's just

3054
02:33:48,733 --> 02:33:49,966
easier than a shortcut

3055
02:33:50,900 --> 02:33:53,400
and as we'll see a little bit just a little bit later on

3056
02:33:54,533 --> 02:33:58,099
you can use this when the inflation rate is is not crazy like

3057
02:33:58,133 --> 02:33:59,133
i don't know you can

3058
02:34:00,000 --> 02:34:01,566
let's say 10 percent okay

3059
02:34:01,566 --> 02:34:04,066
if it's 10 percent or lower you can use that

3060
02:34:04,500 --> 02:34:07,466
so basically what's happening for that real rate is this

3061
02:34:07,466 --> 02:34:10,199
is what's going on in the economy underneath the economy

3062
02:34:10,200 --> 02:34:12,666
if you like underneath what we see in the economy

3063
02:34:13,066 --> 02:34:14,399
there's a supply

3064
02:34:15,533 --> 02:34:18,499
of extra income out there

3065
02:34:18,500 --> 02:34:21,666
or a supply of extra consumption whichever way you want to

3066
02:34:21,700 --> 02:34:22,566
think about it

3067
02:34:22,600 --> 02:34:24,866
that we don't want to consume today

3068
02:34:25,500 --> 02:34:27,900
okay so we have some income y

3069
02:34:27,933 --> 02:34:30,399
there's only ever two things you can do with income

3070
02:34:30,400 --> 02:34:33,333
you can consume it or you can save it

3071
02:34:33,666 --> 02:34:35,866
but savings is real why do you say

3072
02:34:35,866 --> 02:34:37,466
why don't you just consume everything

3073
02:34:37,466 --> 02:34:39,166
because you're worried about the future

3074
02:34:39,166 --> 02:34:40,766
you want something in the future

3075
02:34:41,900 --> 02:34:44,333
干什么给我说好下来找我

3076
02:34:44,366 --> 02:34:47,166
我把那个麦关一下

3077
02:34:55,466 --> 02:34:57,799
晚安晚安啊没人下来找我

3078
02:34:57,800 --> 02:34:59,866
原来没人下来找我呀

3079
02:35:01,733 --> 02:35:04,566
那个工科转哲学就是转计算机

3080
02:35:04,566 --> 02:35:05,899
计算机转数学

3081
02:35:05,933 --> 02:35:08,333
我总觉得世界尽头是数学

3082
02:35:09,266 --> 02:35:11,499
怎么跟舍友亲亲没有我怕他下

3083
02:35:11,500 --> 02:35:14,066
来把我真名叫出来了那样就戒了

3084
02:35:14,066 --> 02:35:15,366
哈哈哈

3085
02:35:26,366 --> 02:35:29,166
right so really what this is

3086
02:35:29,166 --> 02:35:31,366
if let's say we live for two periods

3087
02:35:31,366 --> 02:35:34,199
so we would consume our income in period 1

3088
02:35:34,333 --> 02:35:37,499
and the savings we really want to consume in period 2

3089
02:35:37,866 --> 02:35:40,333
which hasn't happened yet right

3090
02:35:40,800 --> 02:35:42,866
so we're saying what are we going to do

3091
02:35:42,966 --> 02:35:46,133
what do we think that we need for this period too well

3092
02:35:46,133 --> 02:35:49,566
that depends a lot of things including our future income

3093
02:35:50,566 --> 02:35:52,299
and so forth but for the moment

3094
02:35:52,300 --> 02:35:56,533
let's just abstract away from that and say well okay right now

3095
02:35:57,133 --> 02:36:01,166
okay in period one i have this income i'm going to consume that

3096
02:36:01,166 --> 02:36:04,799
so i'm going to take this amount for period two in other words

3097
02:36:04,800 --> 02:36:06,900
i'm going to save it for period two

3098
02:36:07,066 --> 02:36:09,733
i take that down to this market

3099
02:36:10,666 --> 02:36:14,266
okay and so does everybody else so that's what that supply is

3100
02:36:14,500 --> 02:36:15,900
and the reason we do that is

3101
02:36:15,900 --> 02:36:20,100
because we can't store our consumption up and just and just

3102
02:36:20,566 --> 02:36:21,866
have it in the future

3103
02:36:22,000 --> 02:36:23,466
because you know our consumption

3104
02:36:23,500 --> 02:36:24,800
is a whole lot of stuff

3105
02:36:24,800 --> 02:36:27,500
it's trips we want to take you can't store a trip

3106
02:36:27,900 --> 02:36:31,300
right food well you can't store food at least not

3107
02:36:31,933 --> 02:36:35,499
20 30 years in the future you can but it's not practical right

3108
02:36:36,400 --> 02:36:39,966
and so the thing is we're going to give up

3109
02:36:40,466 --> 02:36:43,699
what we could have consumed today right

3110
02:36:44,133 --> 02:36:45,933
and we're going to bring it down to this market

3111
02:36:45,933 --> 02:36:47,699
but we're not going to just give it

3112
02:36:47,800 --> 02:36:49,533
to people that want to use it

3113
02:36:49,533 --> 02:36:51,399
because there's people they're going to want to use

3114
02:36:51,400 --> 02:36:54,066
like that that consumption is in the form of money now

3115
02:36:54,066 --> 02:36:54,966
let's say really

3116
02:36:54,966 --> 02:36:57,599
it's not it's our real consumption we're thinking about it

3117
02:36:57,733 --> 02:36:58,599
but we say hey

3118
02:36:58,666 --> 02:37:01,599
somebody else want to use this today right

3119
02:37:02,333 --> 02:37:03,499
so somebody says yes

3120
02:37:03,500 --> 02:37:04,800
i want to use it today

3121
02:37:04,800 --> 02:37:07,700
like think of think of all our income was in bricks you know

3122
02:37:07,700 --> 02:37:08,666
i know this is crazy

3123
02:37:08,666 --> 02:37:11,133
but let's say we got paid in bricks we save in bricks

3124
02:37:11,133 --> 02:37:13,566
and these are magic bricks we can convert them into food

3125
02:37:13,566 --> 02:37:14,366
or whatever

3126
02:37:14,900 --> 02:37:20,900
okay so let's say i take i make you know six bricks is my

3127
02:37:21,300 --> 02:37:25,500
is my income and i decide to take two of them down here

3128
02:37:26,200 --> 02:37:29,933
okay thing is i supply them who wants those bricks is there

3129
02:37:29,933 --> 02:37:31,099
somebody today that

3130
02:37:31,333 --> 02:37:33,966
needs to build something that they need those bricks

3131
02:37:34,000 --> 02:37:35,800
and that's where the demand comes from

3132
02:37:35,900 --> 02:37:39,733
and the price that we get in that market is the real interest

3133
02:37:39,800 --> 02:37:40,966
way so that

3134
02:37:41,300 --> 02:37:42,900
in period c2

3135
02:37:43,733 --> 02:37:47,799
okay i don't get just my bricks back the two that i brought down

3136
02:37:47,800 --> 02:37:49,933
but maybe i get a third one back

3137
02:37:50,266 --> 02:37:54,599
this third would be the payment i get for giving up the utility

3138
02:37:54,933 --> 02:38:00,333
right that i could have had if i had consumed that i'm out

3139
02:38:00,766 --> 02:38:02,466
so this is all about having

3140
02:38:02,466 --> 02:38:05,766
a utility function where there's consumption in period one

3141
02:38:05,766 --> 02:38:09,133
period two or now and in the future okay

3142
02:38:09,533 --> 02:38:12,999
and what we're doing is we are giving up some utility now

3143
02:38:13,066 --> 02:38:15,099
we want to get compensated for that

3144
02:38:15,133 --> 02:38:17,599
so we get compensated for that in real terms

3145
02:38:17,600 --> 02:38:19,666
meaning if i give you two bricks today

3146
02:38:19,800 --> 02:38:21,066
and remember the bricks are magic

3147
02:38:21,066 --> 02:38:22,466
so they can be turned in anything

3148
02:38:23,066 --> 02:38:24,066
i'm gonna get

3149
02:38:24,200 --> 02:38:27,066
ten years down the road or whatever whatever the deal is

3150
02:38:27,200 --> 02:38:31,533
i'm gonna get i'm gonna get my two back plus an extra one

3151
02:38:31,700 --> 02:38:35,266
because i gave up i gave up the utility that i

3152
02:38:35,400 --> 02:38:37,333
could have had from consuming that

3153
02:38:37,366 --> 02:38:40,299
okay even though i didn't want to i could have right

3154
02:38:40,566 --> 02:38:41,666
and i took on

3155
02:38:41,666 --> 02:38:44,466
some risk i took on the risk that you wouldn't pay me back

3156
02:38:45,966 --> 02:38:47,666
the investment wouldn't pay me back

3157
02:38:47,700 --> 02:38:50,400
and i also had time like it was a lot of time

3158
02:38:50,400 --> 02:38:51,766
but i just said ten years well

3159
02:38:51,766 --> 02:38:53,866
in that ten years maybe i would have figured out

3160
02:38:54,000 --> 02:38:54,200
you know

3161
02:38:54,200 --> 02:38:57,933
i wanna get compensated cause maybe you know i i say oh geez

3162
02:38:57,933 --> 02:38:59,166
i could have done this

3163
02:38:59,166 --> 02:39:00,899
but oh no i let that money

3164
02:39:00,900 --> 02:39:04,333
i let that brick those bricks to to Joe

3165
02:39:04,800 --> 02:39:06,300
so i want to kind of figure out

3166
02:39:06,300 --> 02:39:09,066
listen if i'm going to give this up for a longer period of time

3167
02:39:09,100 --> 02:39:10,400
i mean more of bricks do i want

3168
02:39:10,400 --> 02:39:11,766
and it kind of stands to reason right

3169
02:39:11,766 --> 02:39:13,766
if i'm not going to get paid back in 10 years

3170
02:39:14,066 --> 02:39:15,133
i want a whole brick

3171
02:39:15,166 --> 02:39:17,533
i'm going to get paid back in a week maybe i'll take

3172
02:39:17,766 --> 02:39:19,333
you know one tenth of that

3173
02:39:19,333 --> 02:39:20,599
one tenth of a brick

3174
02:39:20,800 --> 02:39:22,566
but all of those decisions

3175
02:39:22,566 --> 02:39:24,766
aren't made by this simple graph i agree

3176
02:39:24,766 --> 02:39:25,599
i mean of course

3177
02:39:25,600 --> 02:39:28,766
not but the simple graph here is very very important

3178
02:39:28,766 --> 02:39:32,199
because what it's telling us right is telling us that there is

3179
02:39:32,266 --> 02:39:33,466
underneath everything

3180
02:39:33,733 --> 02:39:34,333
when all is said

3181
02:39:34,333 --> 02:39:37,733
and done with all our fancy mathematics and all the zis boombao

3182
02:39:37,733 --> 02:39:39,266
and markets and everything else

3183
02:39:39,500 --> 02:39:40,900
underneath at all

3184
02:39:41,066 --> 02:39:45,766
all there is is people trying to put consumption over time

3185
02:39:45,866 --> 02:39:47,599
and other people would say oh okay

3186
02:39:47,600 --> 02:39:48,933
you don't want to use that today

3187
02:39:48,933 --> 02:39:51,299
i'll use that today we get a market

3188
02:39:51,533 --> 02:39:54,266
and like any other market there's a price that pops out

3189
02:39:54,266 --> 02:39:56,266
and that price in this market

3190
02:39:56,500 --> 02:39:59,366
has a special term it's called the real interest rate

3191
02:39:59,500 --> 02:40:01,166
because we're going to get paid back

3192
02:40:01,200 --> 02:40:02,933
what we're thinking about when we do this

3193
02:40:02,966 --> 02:40:04,999
is how many extra bricks are we going to get

3194
02:40:05,000 --> 02:40:07,100
how much extra consumption are we going to get

3195
02:40:07,100 --> 02:40:08,866
for the consumption we give up today

3196
02:40:09,566 --> 02:40:10,366
okay

3197
02:40:11,300 --> 02:40:13,166
you know one tenth of that

3198
02:40:17,166 --> 02:40:18,666
one tenth of a brick

3199
02:40:19,100 --> 02:40:21,400
but all of those decisions

3200
02:40:21,400 --> 02:40:25,466
aren't made by this simple graph i agree i mean of course

3201
02:40:25,500 --> 02:40:29,700
not but the simple graph here is very very important

3202
02:40:29,700 --> 02:40:32,100
because what it's telling us right

3203
02:40:32,100 --> 02:40:36,866
it's telling us that there is underneath everything when i was

3204
02:40:36,866 --> 02:40:40,399
said and done with all our fancy mathematics and all the

3205
02:40:40,600 --> 02:40:43,566
zis boombao the markets and everything else

3206
02:40:44,000 --> 02:40:45,733
underneath at all

3207
02:40:46,100 --> 02:40:48,000
all there is is

3208
02:40:48,366 --> 02:40:52,299
people trying to put consumption over time

3209
02:40:52,500 --> 02:40:54,400
and other people that say oh

3210
02:40:54,400 --> 02:40:58,100
okay you don't want to use that today i'll use that today

3211
02:40:58,133 --> 02:40:58,933
we get

3212
02:40:59,100 --> 02:41:00,666
还真是你咋知道

3213
02:41:00,666 --> 02:41:03,266
我两周的课都到今天一起看了

3214
02:41:04,066 --> 02:41:05,933
你太了解我了吧

3215
02:41:09,200 --> 02:41:10,800
你怎么会有这么了解我的人

3216
02:41:10,800 --> 02:41:12,066
哈哈哈

3217
02:41:12,800 --> 02:41:14,300
这倒能看懂

3218
02:41:14,766 --> 02:41:16,333
我能看懂倒是能看懂

3219
02:41:16,333 --> 02:41:17,299
但我还想听听

3220
02:41:17,300 --> 02:41:19,600
the other market there is a price that pops out

3221
02:41:19,600 --> 02:41:21,566
and that price in this market

3222
02:41:21,866 --> 02:41:24,733
it has a special term it's called the real interest rate

3223
02:41:24,800 --> 02:41:26,500
because we're going to get paid back

3224
02:41:26,566 --> 02:41:28,266
what we're thinking about when we do this

3225
02:41:28,333 --> 02:41:30,333
is how many extra bricks are we going to get

3226
02:41:30,333 --> 02:41:32,399
how much extra consumption are we going to get

3227
02:41:32,400 --> 02:41:33,566
for the consumption we give up

3228
02:41:33,566 --> 02:41:34,866
我们马上要卸下了

3229
02:41:34,866 --> 02:41:37,733
okay so that's kind of the idea now

3230
02:41:37,733 --> 02:41:39,599
the thing that's important about this

3231
02:41:39,800 --> 02:41:42,333
is that in every investment even though i know

3232
02:41:42,333 --> 02:41:44,933
we don't talk about bricks and consumption at all that stuff

3233
02:41:44,933 --> 02:41:46,499
we just think in terms of money

3234
02:41:46,600 --> 02:41:48,066
but when you think about it

3235
02:41:48,066 --> 02:41:49,966
this is what we really care about right

3236
02:41:50,666 --> 02:41:52,133
if somebody comes if you

3237
02:41:52,333 --> 02:41:55,899
let's say you were lucky enough to inherit me and i'll always

3238
02:41:56,066 --> 02:41:56,966
take it to

3239
02:41:57,166 --> 02:41:57,966
you know

3240
02:41:58,700 --> 02:41:59,533
tv banks

3241
02:41:59,533 --> 02:42:03,666
to insecurities and certain and flowers i'll be back when i'm

3242
02:42:03,933 --> 02:42:06,133
65 years old because

3243
02:42:06,133 --> 02:42:09,666
this is my pension fund please make some money for me okay

3244
02:42:09,800 --> 02:42:10,966
so they invest it

3245
02:42:11,000 --> 02:42:12,400
let's say you just say i

3246
02:42:12,400 --> 02:42:15,066
they're really great they know what they're doing no worries

3247
02:42:15,400 --> 02:42:16,466
but i'm gonna be fine

3248
02:42:16,900 --> 02:42:20,900
and then 35 years from now or whatever it is when you're 65

3249
02:42:20,900 --> 02:42:22,500
40 years from now

3250
02:42:22,766 --> 02:42:27,166
you know they they stay you go in and lo and behold you've got

3251
02:42:27,800 --> 02:42:29,866
you know two million dollars

3252
02:42:29,866 --> 02:42:30,766
they doubled your money

3253
02:42:30,766 --> 02:42:33,066
or three million dollars they tripled your money

3254
02:42:33,600 --> 02:42:35,533
but what happened to prices

3255
02:42:35,566 --> 02:42:37,399
what happened to what you have to live on

3256
02:42:37,800 --> 02:42:40,900
if you could live on fifty thousand dollars a year now

3257
02:42:41,100 --> 02:42:42,400
maybe in 30 or 40

3258
02:42:42,466 --> 02:42:44,799
years whatever对他最狠的两周过去了

3259
02:42:44,800 --> 02:42:46,900
然后so you know if what you have to

3260
02:42:46,900 --> 02:42:48,933
what you have to pay for everything

3261
02:42:49,133 --> 02:42:51,666
triples and they make you triple they've made you what

3262
02:42:51,766 --> 02:42:53,566
zero they made you no

3263
02:42:53,766 --> 02:42:55,966
real return they've made you a heck of a

3264
02:42:56,300 --> 02:42:58,266
a nominal return on your money

3265
02:42:58,266 --> 02:43:00,566
if your money is worth a lot less

3266
02:43:00,800 --> 02:43:03,133
than it used to be in terms of goods and services

3267
02:43:03,133 --> 02:43:05,333
so these are things i'm sure everybody has a good intuition

3268
02:43:05,333 --> 02:43:07,166
about but remember

3269
02:43:07,366 --> 02:43:10,266
remember in finance

3270
02:43:10,366 --> 02:43:13,199
it's the real return that we care about

3271
02:43:13,200 --> 02:43:15,333
and that means we really care about this inflation

3272
02:43:15,333 --> 02:43:16,266
stuff that's happening

3273
02:43:16,400 --> 02:43:19,700
we're not doing accounting here we're gonna be using

3274
02:43:20,533 --> 02:43:22,499
accounting is done

3275
02:43:22,700 --> 02:43:25,333
i know there is some level of accounting that's done in real and

3276
02:43:25,333 --> 02:43:26,933
there's adjustments for that i know

3277
02:43:26,933 --> 02:43:28,999
i get that but a simple accounting

3278
02:43:29,366 --> 02:43:32,199
you know just basic basic ways we count things

3279
02:43:32,266 --> 02:43:34,533
we count things in money

3280
02:43:34,800 --> 02:43:35,666
and therefore

3281
02:43:35,666 --> 02:43:37,499
we tend to think of money

3282
02:43:37,600 --> 02:43:40,966
as a really great thing when we when it goes up

3283
02:43:41,200 --> 02:43:44,200
you know and say this true when an assets worth goes up

3284
02:43:44,200 --> 02:43:45,266
yes it goes up

3285
02:43:45,266 --> 02:43:48,599
but is it reading is it gone up in real terms okay

3286
02:43:48,866 --> 02:43:53,466
so basically then what we need to to always think about is that

3287
02:43:53,566 --> 02:43:55,466
that nominal return we get

3288
02:43:55,800 --> 02:44:01,333
is really a lot of it has to do on the expectation of inflation

3289
02:44:01,600 --> 02:44:05,533
so this could stay the same and this thing could go really up

3290
02:44:05,533 --> 02:44:06,699
simply because

3291
02:44:07,166 --> 02:44:10,099
inflation is going up so are normally

3292
02:44:13,766 --> 02:44:14,933
returns are going up

3293
02:44:15,000 --> 02:44:17,766
and this is what we'd like to see happen right now right

3294
02:44:18,366 --> 02:44:21,199
if the real rate of return on capital

3295
02:44:21,200 --> 02:44:25,733
let's say is 2 percent i'm just making that up now life right

3296
02:44:26,133 --> 02:44:26,866
but

3297
02:44:26,866 --> 02:44:30,099
like in the states right now the expectation of inflation is

3298
02:44:30,166 --> 02:44:34,399
7 percent then we need to get 9 percent here

3299
02:44:34,933 --> 02:44:36,866
to get that two percent return

3300
02:44:36,933 --> 02:44:40,333
if this goes up to 8 percent we need 10 percent

3301
02:44:40,400 --> 02:44:44,566
so what we are going to try and do is find assets right

3302
02:44:45,300 --> 02:44:47,733
or this normal return goes up

3303
02:44:47,933 --> 02:44:52,766
as close as possible to inflation otherwise what we're really

3304
02:44:52,766 --> 02:44:57,399
our portfolio is usually used losing its real bout okay

3305
02:44:57,933 --> 02:44:59,966
so the Nomine clature when in case

3306
02:44:59,966 --> 02:45:01,999
you're not used to it this e here

3307
02:45:02,000 --> 02:45:05,200
this big e is called the expectation operator

3308
02:45:05,966 --> 02:45:08,866
and for our purposes we're not going to get fancy with it

3309
02:45:08,866 --> 02:45:12,099
it just means what do we expect something to do usually

3310
02:45:12,100 --> 02:45:15,500
that will be what they call nu the Greek letter nu

3311
02:45:15,566 --> 02:45:19,766
which is just the way that they call an arithmetic average okay

3312
02:45:20,066 --> 02:45:22,366
we're going to see that in just a second but

3313
02:45:22,700 --> 02:45:25,566
remember expectations are really important

3314
02:45:25,566 --> 02:45:27,133
because let's suppose

3315
02:45:28,066 --> 02:45:31,466
the other side of the coin here suppose you're a banker now

3316
02:45:32,600 --> 02:45:35,200
so now you got to lend money right

3317
02:45:35,400 --> 02:45:37,300
and again let's suppose in the industry

3318
02:45:37,300 --> 02:45:38,933
you figure the real radar return again

3319
02:45:38,933 --> 02:45:40,299
let's use two percent

3320
02:45:41,000 --> 02:45:41,800
okay

3321
02:45:42,400 --> 02:45:44,733
so if the bank expects inflation

3322
02:45:44,733 --> 02:45:46,099
which has been basically

3323
02:45:46,400 --> 02:45:48,200
nothing for years and years and years

3324
02:45:48,200 --> 02:45:51,366
it's been you know like two percent on an average for

3325
02:45:51,600 --> 02:45:54,500
for a long long time if it starts to go or lower

3326
02:45:54,500 --> 02:45:54,933
it's been

3327
02:45:54,933 --> 02:45:57,766
actually lower than two percent for the last little while so

3328
02:45:57,766 --> 02:45:58,666
let's suppose again

3329
02:45:58,666 --> 02:46:02,133
let's just make it up inflation has been one percent so normally

3330
02:46:02,133 --> 02:46:05,466
you give a mortgage or something for three percent right

3331
02:46:05,600 --> 02:46:07,600
three percent would be the two here

3332
02:46:08,100 --> 02:46:10,333
plus the one that you expect inflation but now

3333
02:46:10,333 --> 02:46:11,533
you're a banker and say oh

3334
02:46:11,900 --> 02:46:14,566
i think that inflations kind of come like crazy

3335
02:46:14,700 --> 02:46:16,600
i'm lending money for five years

3336
02:46:16,600 --> 02:46:18,466
what do i think inflations gonna be like

3337
02:46:18,733 --> 02:46:20,899
over on average over for the next five

3338
02:46:20,900 --> 02:46:24,200
years well let's go with that seven percent again now

3339
02:46:24,200 --> 02:46:25,933
that rate you're gonna lend out

3340
02:46:26,600 --> 02:46:28,133
nine percent just

3341
02:46:28,133 --> 02:46:31,499
to protect yourself from the value of money that you're lending

3342
02:46:32,200 --> 02:46:34,700
even though your return is the same

3343
02:46:35,766 --> 02:46:36,699
all right so

3344
02:46:36,800 --> 02:46:37,966
people really get

3345
02:46:37,966 --> 02:46:40,699
this is simple i agree with you guys are you probably

3346
02:46:41,000 --> 02:46:42,966
sitting there going on man the big yawn

3347
02:46:42,966 --> 02:46:45,199
and i don't blame you it is it's very simple

3348
02:46:45,300 --> 02:46:49,066
but the point is people get fooled by this all the time

3349
02:46:49,133 --> 02:46:52,066
i mean and people that are well educated and everything else

3350
02:46:52,900 --> 02:46:54,700
and because they get they

3351
02:46:54,700 --> 02:46:58,733
they get fooled by the idea that what they see nominally

3352
02:46:58,966 --> 02:46:59,933
is what you know

3353
02:46:59,933 --> 02:47:01,199
they really made on something

3354
02:47:01,200 --> 02:47:03,600
including their houses and stuff like that although housing

3355
02:47:03,600 --> 02:47:04,200
i know right

3356
02:47:04,200 --> 02:47:05,733
recently has been crazy

3357
02:47:05,733 --> 02:47:07,399
but historically

3358
02:47:07,400 --> 02:47:10,700
it basically just keeps pace with inflation and a little bit

3359
02:47:10,700 --> 02:47:12,200
exterbating if you're lucky

3360
02:47:13,166 --> 02:47:15,066
and is there spend times when people

3361
02:47:15,733 --> 02:47:17,266
my generation can tell you

3362
02:47:19,200 --> 02:47:20,466
that's really it

3363
02:47:20,700 --> 02:47:23,200
and if we're going to fix this thing the only way on housing

3364
02:47:23,200 --> 02:47:25,500
the only way to do it is to build a whole lot more houses

3365
02:47:25,500 --> 02:47:26,400
but unfortunately

3366
02:47:26,400 --> 02:47:28,166
that's easier said than done

3367
02:47:29,600 --> 02:47:32,300
in a lot of ways anyway that's way out of our

3368
02:47:32,766 --> 02:47:34,299
let's not go there okay

3369
02:47:34,300 --> 02:47:35,366
let's speed this up a little bit

3370
02:47:35,366 --> 02:47:37,933
because i don't want to take up too much of time doing this

3371
02:47:37,933 --> 02:47:40,266
so i'm gonna let's let's i think we're okay with this right

3372
02:47:40,466 --> 02:47:44,366
okay just to give use now these data sets are always really old

3373
02:47:44,366 --> 02:47:44,999
and

3374
02:47:45,000 --> 02:47:46,500
they come from textbooks and anything else

3375
02:47:46,500 --> 02:47:48,133
because they take a long time to put together

3376
02:47:48,133 --> 02:47:50,333
and get published and stuff yeah

3377
02:47:50,533 --> 02:47:51,733
we could update this

3378
02:47:51,733 --> 02:47:52,866
but it would be kind of

3379
02:47:52,933 --> 02:47:54,799
a little bit of a pain because all i want to do

3380
02:47:54,800 --> 02:47:56,166
is just give you an example

3381
02:47:56,533 --> 02:47:57,666
of what's going on

3382
02:47:57,733 --> 02:47:59,899
so if you look at the real t bill braid

3383
02:48:00,000 --> 02:48:02,400
historically for the full sample see

3384
02:48:02,400 --> 02:48:05,766
it's not much higher than them it's like half a percent

3385
02:48:06,200 --> 02:48:07,000
you know

3386
02:48:07,866 --> 02:48:09,499
so it right now

3387
02:48:10,066 --> 02:48:12,333
the standard deviation i'll talk about standard deviation

3388
02:48:12,333 --> 02:48:12,799
and i'm on it

3389
02:48:12,800 --> 02:48:15,733
but it just means the fluctuation see historically

3390
02:48:16,000 --> 02:48:20,600
inflation over this long long period of time from 1927 up to

3391
02:48:21,000 --> 02:48:25,566
2018 was about 4 percent this is American but the Canadian

3392
02:48:25,866 --> 02:48:28,666
is a little bit lower but not by much

3393
02:48:29,133 --> 02:48:32,099
so the real raider return was about three point

3394
02:48:32,200 --> 02:48:34,066
let's say three point five percent

3395
02:48:34,066 --> 02:48:36,066
because again that these numbers

3396
02:48:36,266 --> 02:48:37,666
aren't written in stone right

3397
02:48:37,666 --> 02:48:41,066
they depend on on this data set but this is Ken french's

3398
02:48:41,166 --> 02:48:44,566
data set he's one of the top guys at the university of Chicago

3399
02:48:44,600 --> 02:48:46,266
in finance you know i mean

3400
02:48:46,400 --> 02:48:48,166
so it probably it

3401
02:48:48,166 --> 02:48:51,666
comes from the bls and the states as you can see there and

3402
02:48:54,000 --> 02:48:57,566
so you know i mean it's a good indication right

3403
02:48:57,966 --> 02:49:01,866
and if you look at at the real rate has been like a standard

3404
02:49:01,866 --> 02:49:05,166
deviation that means how much is it varied over that data set

3405
02:49:05,166 --> 02:49:06,066
after all those years

3406
02:49:06,066 --> 02:49:08,499
almost the same as the rate of inflation itself

3407
02:49:08,733 --> 02:49:11,566
or the standard deviation of the inflation itself

3408
02:49:11,566 --> 02:49:12,566
a little bit less

3409
02:49:13,400 --> 02:49:15,466
it's been around going up

3410
02:49:15,666 --> 02:49:19,333
it wobbles around it wobbles around four percent okay

3411
02:49:19,333 --> 02:49:21,533
好难啊我咋听不懂啊

3412
02:49:21,966 --> 02:49:23,999
哈哈哈有没有听得懂的

3413
02:49:24,000 --> 02:49:25,133
现在有人跟我讲讲

3414
02:49:25,133 --> 02:49:27,566
他这个表到底说的是个啥意思啊

3415
02:49:27,566 --> 02:49:28,533
我听不懂了

3416
02:49:28,533 --> 02:49:29,466
家人们

3417
02:49:30,500 --> 02:49:31,566
竟然是犯罪

3418
02:49:32,166 --> 02:49:32,999
哈哈哈

3419
02:49:33,933 --> 02:49:36,966
有没有人听懂了给我讲讲呗

3420
02:49:38,100 --> 02:49:40,200
家人们笨蛋出现了

3421
02:49:40,200 --> 02:49:41,800
笨逼出现了

3422
02:49:45,200 --> 02:49:46,266
我要许愿

3423
02:49:46,266 --> 02:49:47,566
芝士面包

3424
02:49:48,266 --> 02:49:49,733
这是我的课

3425
02:49:50,866 --> 02:49:52,533
我要上课了

3426
02:49:54,466 --> 02:49:55,799
这可咋办啊

3427
02:49:55,800 --> 02:49:57,300
丑死了哎呀

3428
02:49:57,733 --> 02:49:58,966
没整明白

3429
02:49:59,700 --> 02:50:01,333
我在这等你讲解了

3430
02:50:01,366 --> 02:50:02,899
我来等你们讲讲

3431
02:50:14,000 --> 02:50:15,566
我要芝士豆浆

3432
02:50:15,966 --> 02:50:16,899
优质解答

3433
02:50:16,900 --> 02:50:17,800
我不知道

3434
02:50:34,866 --> 02:50:36,766
我知道那个那个

3435
02:50:39,866 --> 02:50:42,899
哎呀我好像又不知道了

3436
02:50:59,733 --> 02:51:01,333
晚上好晚上好

3437
02:51:02,333 --> 02:51:05,699
我先看看这个7贝尔这个东西吧

3438
02:51:10,733 --> 02:51:11,533
国债

3439
02:51:12,800 --> 02:51:14,900
知道了但没有完全知道

3440
02:51:14,900 --> 02:51:15,566
哈哈

3441
02:51:15,566 --> 02:51:17,499
就是没有完全知道

3442
02:51:22,000 --> 02:51:23,600
为什么按按照他这里了

3443
02:51:23,600 --> 02:51:24,866
为什么他这个

3444
02:51:25,300 --> 02:51:26,900
国债的利率

3445
02:51:26,900 --> 02:51:30,900
跟通货膨胀率跟真正的这个利率

3446
02:51:31,566 --> 02:51:32,766
有差别呢

3447
02:51:32,766 --> 02:51:36,366
他不应该是就两个减一下然后就是吗

3448
02:51:36,400 --> 02:51:37,766
为啥他会是这样的

3449
02:51:37,766 --> 02:51:40,499
按照他前面的那个算盘的话是

3450
02:51:41,766 --> 02:51:44,099
就真正的就是那个

3451
02:51:45,133 --> 02:51:45,933
呃

3452
02:51:47,066 --> 02:51:48,599
给我看一下

3453
02:52:18,333 --> 02:52:19,266
不一样啊

3454
02:52:19,266 --> 02:52:20,866
为啥会这样呢

3455
02:52:22,100 --> 02:52:22,900
哎呀

3456
02:52:23,066 --> 02:52:24,699
我为啥搞不明白呢

3457
02:52:26,266 --> 02:52:27,199
inflation that is

3458
02:52:27,200 --> 02:52:29,100
so the real rate is a little bit less

3459
02:52:29,100 --> 02:52:31,366
because t bills wobbled around three percent

3460
02:52:31,366 --> 02:52:32,799
so this you know historically if this

3461
02:52:32,800 --> 02:52:35,800
is it and they're like practically Zero today

3462
02:52:35,933 --> 02:52:38,133
that's why rates can come way way up

3463
02:52:38,400 --> 02:52:41,166
like they can go three hundred basis points up

3464
02:52:41,166 --> 02:52:42,199
and even though that would

3465
02:52:42,533 --> 02:52:44,066
不是哪个不一样的问题

3466
02:52:44,066 --> 02:52:45,899
就是那个那个t bells

3467
02:52:45,933 --> 02:52:48,399
跟那个那个inflation那个

3468
02:52:48,500 --> 02:52:52,500
他们应该是那个一个剪纸剪完了之后

3469
02:52:53,466 --> 02:52:54,733
谢谢

3470
02:52:56,000 --> 02:53:00,966
MCGG的剑桥非常感谢啊

3471
02:53:00,966 --> 02:53:04,599
离开了我怎么直播听课有人上剑啊

3472
02:53:08,100 --> 02:53:09,533
啊谢谢谢谢谢谢

3473
02:53:09,533 --> 02:53:11,533
我操这都有的啊

3474
02:53:11,533 --> 02:53:14,966
谢谢谢谢谢谢啊离开这这也能有现场

3475
02:53:17,300 --> 02:53:20,566
你是你是刚我太听不懂课了

3476
02:53:20,566 --> 02:53:21,366
然后

3477
02:53:21,733 --> 02:53:23,766
来帮我买芝士面包的吗

3478
02:53:23,766 --> 02:53:24,733
我太感动了

3479
02:53:24,733 --> 02:53:26,066
谢谢你谢谢你

3480
02:53:26,100 --> 02:53:28,133
我操爹这也有爹

3481
02:53:30,300 --> 02:53:31,700
老板大气老板大气

3482
02:53:31,700 --> 02:53:34,166
谢谢谢谢你对音乐的支持我会

3483
02:53:34,966 --> 02:53:37,333
我会好好的购买芝士面包的

3484
02:53:37,333 --> 02:53:39,466
主播这样一晚上不如直播学习

3485
02:53:39,466 --> 02:53:40,399
还真是

3486
02:53:41,466 --> 02:53:44,166
他这个为什么会这样了

3487
02:53:45,133 --> 02:53:47,066
瞬间提神瞬间醒了

3488
02:53:47,066 --> 02:53:47,866
谢谢谢谢

3489
02:53:47,866 --> 02:53:50,766
谢谢这位老板赠送的这个现场

3490
02:53:50,766 --> 02:53:52,299
谢谢呃

3491
02:53:53,266 --> 02:53:57,166
他只关注耶耶这是谁的小号吗

3492
02:53:57,933 --> 02:54:00,999
谢谢你谢谢你让我瞬间就笑了

3493
02:54:03,200 --> 02:54:04,600
不行我一定要搞明白

3494
02:54:04,600 --> 02:54:06,166
为啥这个表会是这样的

3495
02:54:06,166 --> 02:54:08,399
我一下还不小心就醒了

3496
02:54:11,766 --> 02:54:14,099
因为我还有时间家人们

3497
02:54:14,100 --> 02:54:17,200
这个一个小时长的视频有三个

3498
02:54:17,200 --> 02:54:19,133
我可以看四天

3499
02:54:19,933 --> 02:54:21,666
我可以看四天呢

3500
02:54:31,000 --> 02:54:32,700
三个投资组合

3501
02:54:32,700 --> 02:54:36,000
资产或现金流价值的平均增长

3502
02:54:36,266 --> 02:54:37,666
0级号不会轻舞飞扬

3503
02:54:37,666 --> 02:54:39,066
应该不会吧

3504
02:54:40,533 --> 02:54:41,866
应该不会吧

3505
02:54:41,866 --> 02:54:42,999
我今天就开玩笑

3506
02:54:43,133 --> 02:54:45,166
我我我我想今天就开玩笑

3507
02:54:45,166 --> 02:54:46,566
这后面做题啊

3508
02:54:46,566 --> 02:54:47,533
我也想啊

3509
02:54:47,533 --> 02:54:49,999
但我现在有点搞不明白了呀

3510
02:54:50,933 --> 02:54:51,799
你们这样

3511
02:54:51,800 --> 02:54:52,500
要不这样吧

3512
02:54:52,500 --> 02:54:54,866
我把他我能拿他转个那什么吧家

3513
02:54:54,866 --> 02:54:59,899
人们我先我先我先把那个这个这个

3514
02:55:01,133 --> 02:55:01,933
嗯

3515
02:55:05,900 --> 02:55:07,500
你们能听到吗

3516
02:55:07,500 --> 02:55:10,366
我刚才把监听去掉的话会有问题的吧

3517
02:55:16,000 --> 02:55:18,200
主要我想我想看看能不能

3518
02:55:18,300 --> 02:55:20,266
直接录一下那个什么

3519
02:55:20,266 --> 02:55:22,199
看他到底都说了些啥

3520
02:55:22,266 --> 02:55:24,099
我其实有点听了一知半解了

3521
02:55:24,100 --> 02:55:25,000
我就感觉

3522
02:55:25,933 --> 02:55:27,899
我不知道直播间有没有

3523
02:55:28,066 --> 02:55:30,766
强强留学生上课都能听懂的

3524
02:55:30,766 --> 02:55:32,166
反正我是不行

3525
02:55:32,966 --> 02:55:35,266
我唱歌是没法都听得懂的

3526
02:55:35,266 --> 02:55:36,133
耳朵废了

3527
02:55:36,133 --> 02:55:36,799
真的假的

3528
02:55:36,800 --> 02:55:38,600
刚才出问题了对吗

3529
02:55:38,600 --> 02:55:39,966
那就先不罚了

3530
02:55:40,333 --> 02:55:41,666
there would really be a

3531
02:55:41,666 --> 02:55:44,299
huge huge difference for us right now historically

3532
02:55:44,300 --> 02:55:45,733
we were just getting back tomorrow

3533
02:55:46,700 --> 02:55:49,766
we tend to forget that when we say all the rates are going up

3534
02:55:49,800 --> 02:55:52,933
or not if even if they go up to two percent or still me

3535
02:55:53,300 --> 02:55:54,933
you know now that's gonna

3536
02:55:55,000 --> 02:55:57,133
that's a big deal not mind you i don't mean to

3537
02:55:57,333 --> 02:55:58,999
to say it isn't but

3538
02:55:59,400 --> 02:56:00,200
let's just

3539
02:56:00,866 --> 02:56:04,366
now this is what i took off the web as you can see

3540
02:56:04,866 --> 02:56:06,766
a couple of week a little while back

3541
02:56:07,800 --> 02:56:10,133
and黄小燕给了我一个大逼凳子

3542
02:56:10,133 --> 02:56:11,899
我就知道他会出问题

3543
02:56:12,333 --> 02:56:13,899
狗没人狗没人

3544
02:56:13,900 --> 02:56:14,700
摩托

3545
02:56:14,900 --> 02:56:16,466
摩托是什么鬼啊

3546
02:56:16,466 --> 02:56:18,699
you know it doesn't matter i'm just trying to give us a diet

3547
02:56:18,700 --> 02:56:19,733
more up to dates

3548
02:56:19,733 --> 02:56:21,466
狗没人狗没人

3549
02:56:23,066 --> 02:56:25,733
and i just took this and you can see that these are negatively

3550
02:56:25,733 --> 02:56:27,499
these are the real rates of negative

3551
02:56:27,500 --> 02:56:29,300
that's the big deal like我是肉肉

3552
02:56:29,366 --> 02:56:32,699
肉肉迷我不知道他想说什么

3553
02:56:34,533 --> 02:56:36,599
好喜欢学习的听见没有

3554
02:56:36,600 --> 02:56:38,133
我不喜欢学习

3555
02:56:38,366 --> 02:56:40,533
只是我被逼的无奈

3556
02:56:40,733 --> 02:56:42,133
我真的不喜欢学习

3557
02:56:43,933 --> 02:56:45,499
it doesn't go into housing and stuff

3558
02:56:45,500 --> 02:56:46,100
because that's

3559
02:56:46,100 --> 02:56:47,766
you got to get somebody to build houses and stuff

3560
02:56:47,766 --> 02:56:48,866
but you can

3561
02:56:48,866 --> 02:56:51,266
borrow a bunch of money and just throw it in the stock market

3562
02:56:51,266 --> 02:56:52,533
and financial assets can

3563
02:56:52,533 --> 02:56:53,466
go through the roof

3564
02:56:53,466 --> 02:56:55,299
这玩意翻译成中文我都有

3565
02:56:55,300 --> 02:56:58,000
but if you're in the situation like this and i was saying enough

3566
02:56:58,500 --> 02:57:00,100
我给你们念一下

3567
02:57:01,266 --> 02:57:02,066
盈亏

3568
02:57:02,166 --> 02:57:06,766
平衡的通账率代表从10年期的国债

3569
02:57:06,766 --> 02:57:09,299
恒定到期的证券括号b

3570
02:57:09,300 --> 02:57:11,200
c杠ten year

3571
02:57:11,400 --> 02:57:15,166
和10年期的国债通账指数

3572
02:57:15,166 --> 02:57:19,499
恒定到期证券括号t c杠ten year得出的

3573
02:57:19,733 --> 02:57:21,999
预期通账指标

3574
02:57:26,500 --> 02:57:28,133
最新只意味着

3575
02:57:28,133 --> 02:57:31,466
市场参与者预计了未来10年的

3576
02:57:31,766 --> 02:57:33,799
平均通账水平

3577
02:57:33,933 --> 02:57:35,266
那就是说

3578
02:57:35,466 --> 02:57:36,966
这是他的预测

3579
02:57:36,966 --> 02:57:39,699
而不是他根据前面的东西

3580
02:57:40,266 --> 02:57:41,133
得出来的

3581
02:57:41,133 --> 02:57:42,366
是这个意思吗

3582
02:57:51,366 --> 02:57:52,766
好麻烦啊

3583
02:57:53,100 --> 02:57:54,866
我不想上学了

3584
02:58:00,066 --> 02:58:01,899
to pay pause in adventure

3585
02:58:03,500 --> 02:58:06,266
let's get out of this game because i wanna get out now

3586
02:58:06,300 --> 02:58:07,366
i see some money on

3587
02:58:07,600 --> 02:58:08,466
and that's

3588
02:58:08,566 --> 02:58:09,366
one of the reason

3589
02:58:09,766 --> 02:58:12,599
not the only one maybe not even the most important one but

3590
02:58:12,800 --> 02:58:13,866
one of the reasons

3591
02:58:14,166 --> 02:58:15,599
why when interest rates go up

3592
02:58:15,600 --> 02:58:17,400
you can see a lot of the times

3593
02:58:17,400 --> 02:58:19,533
a big part of the stock market maybe not all of it

3594
02:58:19,533 --> 02:58:20,566
but a big part没有我

3595
02:58:20,566 --> 02:58:23,733
我其实我我这个人就不是特别的喜欢

3596
02:58:24,800 --> 02:58:27,766
追求原理啊追求凡事都听得懂

3597
02:58:27,766 --> 02:58:30,599
我只关心我能不能做明白题

3598
02:58:30,600 --> 02:58:32,466
但是我现在很显然就是

3599
02:58:32,466 --> 02:58:33,499
我不知道这些东西

3600
02:58:33,500 --> 02:58:35,300
应该怎么拿来做题

3601
02:58:35,600 --> 02:58:37,166
a lot of people你睡了吗

3602
02:58:37,166 --> 02:58:38,366
我睡不着觉

3603
02:58:38,400 --> 02:58:41,733
players and that that are buying on margin okay

3604
02:58:41,866 --> 02:58:45,499
they actually have borrowed or they have leverage in the market

3605
02:58:45,800 --> 02:58:48,266
we'll get into this that kind of thing a little bit later

3606
02:58:48,266 --> 02:58:51,166
so let me get away we're just leaving that as it is for now

3607
02:58:51,266 --> 02:58:53,099
this is just to give you an indication that

3608
02:58:53,100 --> 02:58:54,866
real rates are negative at the moment

3609
02:58:54,866 --> 02:58:56,566
and they're severely negative

3610
02:58:56,800 --> 02:59:00,066
even you know negative on the 30 year

3611
02:59:01,700 --> 02:59:04,266
actually the ten years where we should really be looking

3612
02:59:04,266 --> 02:59:05,133
that is the big one

3613
02:59:05,133 --> 02:59:08,199
that's the benchmark and you can see that that benchmark is

3614
02:59:08,200 --> 02:59:11,100
pretty high not as high as down here it's true

3615
02:59:11,100 --> 02:59:13,733
but the ten more of the ten year is the bigger to look at so

3616
02:59:13,733 --> 02:59:15,799
negative rates at the moment now

3617
02:59:15,866 --> 02:59:19,166
one thing because inflation is going to be with us for a while

3618
02:59:19,166 --> 02:59:20,999
and we should always look at this anyway

3619
02:59:21,000 --> 02:59:23,966
even when it's not a problem is something called the break

3620
02:59:23,966 --> 02:59:25,399
even rate okay

3621
02:59:25,966 --> 02:59:29,299
now this is the market determined

3622
02:59:29,933 --> 02:59:32,733
rate of the expectation of inflation

3623
02:59:32,933 --> 02:59:34,133
so what we're trying to do here

3624
02:59:34,133 --> 02:59:36,099
is as financial people is trying to get

3625
02:59:36,166 --> 02:59:39,066
an idea what are people expecting inflation to be

3626
02:59:39,666 --> 02:59:42,899
but that's expectations that's like human in some human brain

3627
02:59:42,900 --> 02:59:43,766
you know somebody's oh

3628
02:59:43,766 --> 02:59:46,333
i think it's well how it had to be quantified that

3629
02:59:47,000 --> 02:59:49,800
you know well one way to do that is to

3630
02:59:49,800 --> 02:59:50,966
let the market

3631
02:59:51,000 --> 02:59:54,000
if the market is a mechanism that reflects what

3632
02:59:54,000 --> 02:59:56,466
people think about the future okay

3633
02:59:57,000 --> 02:59:59,600
let's say it is because we invest on something

3634
02:59:59,600 --> 03:00:01,766
because what we think we're going to get in the future

3635
03:00:02,300 --> 03:00:03,700
so it's not a crystal ball

3636
03:00:03,700 --> 03:00:05,100
but it's我在找有没有

3637
03:00:05,100 --> 03:00:06,800
我这门课的补课班

3638
03:00:07,066 --> 03:00:09,099
我想报个补课班了

3639
03:00:09,566 --> 03:00:10,899
我决定不想

3640
03:00:11,000 --> 03:00:11,733
自己

3641
03:00:11,733 --> 03:00:13,466
自己孤独的去了

3642
03:00:13,900 --> 03:00:14,700
我要

3643
03:00:14,766 --> 03:00:16,133
我要上补习班

3644
03:00:16,133 --> 03:00:16,933
加油

3645
03:00:17,566 --> 03:00:19,999
我已经在低头找补课班了

3646
03:00:21,900 --> 03:00:23,133
so what they do is

3647
03:00:24,000 --> 03:00:25,566
they take the ten year like

3648
03:00:25,566 --> 03:00:26,099
we just said

3649
03:00:26,100 --> 03:00:28,900
that's kind of the mench bar the ten year treasury bill now

3650
03:00:28,900 --> 03:00:30,866
they call it the constant maturity

3651
03:00:30,966 --> 03:00:32,366
securities that's just

3652
03:00:33,133 --> 03:00:35,066
fed or treasury

3653
03:00:35,300 --> 03:00:38,466
babble don't worry about that it has a call letter bc

3654
03:00:38,500 --> 03:00:41,800
from from whatever this was taken out it's just the ten years

3655
03:00:42,600 --> 03:00:46,366
the tenure let's say American bond because we talk about federal

3656
03:00:46,366 --> 03:00:47,966
but it could be the Canadian bond

3657
03:00:48,466 --> 03:00:48,899
yeah okay

3658
03:00:48,900 --> 03:00:49,700
even the two

3659
03:00:49,966 --> 03:00:50,399
that's it

3660
03:00:50,400 --> 03:00:52,100
it's just a regular old bond that's

3661
03:00:52,133 --> 03:00:53,966
为啥我上来之前先

3662
03:00:54,333 --> 03:00:57,166
看那个Tips the color tips in the States

3663
03:00:57,700 --> 03:00:57,966
here

3664
03:00:57,966 --> 03:01:00,799
we just call our inflation protect the organization

3665
03:01:02,200 --> 03:01:04,400
percent ten dollars and twenty cents

3666
03:01:04,666 --> 03:01:06,966
so this twenty cents you know

3667
03:01:08,466 --> 03:01:09,599
supports or

3668
03:01:09,966 --> 03:01:11,333
ensures if you like

3669
03:01:12,300 --> 03:01:12,933
the

3670
03:01:12,933 --> 03:01:17,133
real rear return because ten dollars you know today

3671
03:01:18,566 --> 03:01:22,099
will cost you 10 20 in the future because of inflation

3672
03:01:22,266 --> 03:01:25,566
so this bond jacks up your principles

3673
03:01:25,566 --> 03:01:27,766
so that even though your radar return doesn't change

3674
03:01:27,800 --> 03:01:29,333
it's still ten percent it's

3675
03:01:29,333 --> 03:01:31,166
ten percent on a higher amount

3676
03:01:31,400 --> 03:01:32,200
of place

3677
03:01:32,333 --> 03:01:33,366
so what they do

3678
03:01:33,366 --> 03:01:35,166
is they look at the difference between us

3679
03:01:35,200 --> 03:01:35,600
because

3680
03:01:35,600 --> 03:01:37,300
the people's expectations are high

3681
03:01:37,300 --> 03:01:40,800
they're going to really buy into these tips say these treasury

3682
03:01:41,400 --> 03:01:43,800
expectations in various

3683
03:01:43,866 --> 03:01:45,099
so they look at the difference

3684
03:01:45,800 --> 03:01:47,500
that is an idea of what

3685
03:01:47,733 --> 03:01:49,199
people are expecting information

3686
03:01:50,366 --> 03:01:52,499
so this is in fact a

3687
03:01:53,566 --> 03:01:57,666
graph of that from Fred now Fred is something all of you guys

3688
03:01:58,100 --> 03:01:59,733
if you're doing papers

3689
03:01:59,800 --> 03:02:00,966
or things like that

3690
03:02:00,966 --> 03:02:02,733
and you want to get a graph that looks nice

3691
03:02:02,733 --> 03:02:03,933
and professional like this

3692
03:02:03,933 --> 03:02:04,966
you go to Fred

3693
03:02:05,666 --> 03:02:07,166
well Fred is a Macronum of course

3694
03:02:07,166 --> 03:02:08,133
it stands for

3695
03:02:08,200 --> 03:02:10,733
federal reserve economic database

3696
03:02:10,733 --> 03:02:13,066
and you used the one that's easiest to use

3697
03:02:13,066 --> 03:02:16,766
i think for this would be at the one of the Saint Louis Fred fed

3698
03:02:16,766 --> 03:02:18,999
okay so you just go to the Saint Louis bed

3699
03:02:19,266 --> 03:02:21,733
federal reserve website just to lose the他写的字

3700
03:02:21,733 --> 03:02:23,266
我也看不懂这写的

3701
03:02:23,266 --> 03:02:24,733
这是个啥呀

3702
03:02:27,666 --> 03:02:30,733
哎呦full around an area and you'll see it and it's amazing

3703
03:02:30,733 --> 03:02:31,533
you can just

3704
03:02:31,700 --> 03:02:35,400
plug it use all their data and all their stuff for free

3705
03:02:35,600 --> 03:02:36,666
and it will actually

3706
03:02:36,666 --> 03:02:38,866
you can actually print out a little graphs like this

3707
03:02:38,866 --> 03:02:40,066
and still on so forth

3708
03:02:40,966 --> 03:02:42,266
and you know

3709
03:02:42,266 --> 03:02:42,866
that's really

3710
03:02:42,866 --> 03:02:45,299
a handy tool that you should really take a look at

3711
03:02:45,300 --> 03:02:46,600
so as you can see

3712
03:02:46,800 --> 03:02:48,466
like this a little bigger maybe

3713
03:02:49,200 --> 03:02:51,266
you can see that this is called the ten year

3714
03:02:51,266 --> 03:02:52,899
break even inflation right

3715
03:02:53,066 --> 03:02:56,666
so what do people think in ten years now i took this

3716
03:02:58,100 --> 03:03:01,566
this is relatively relatively good although

3717
03:03:03,533 --> 03:03:06,533
it was last week i guess i took this so

3718
03:03:06,866 --> 03:03:08,966
again to i apologize to people that are you know

3719
03:03:08,966 --> 03:03:09,766
looking at this

3720
03:03:09,900 --> 03:03:11,133
a couple of months from now because

3721
03:03:11,133 --> 03:03:16,599
but you know you can see that inflation really from well

3722
03:03:17,100 --> 03:03:19,666
it's what it's call it 2 percent here

3723
03:03:19,766 --> 03:03:22,066
and they're expecting when up in real

3724
03:03:22,566 --> 03:03:24,466
it's like what two and a half

3725
03:03:25,000 --> 03:03:28,200
so what people are really thinking or at least

3726
03:03:28,500 --> 03:03:30,533
market is telling us that long run

3727
03:03:30,533 --> 03:03:33,566
expectations are still pinned down and pretty low

3728
03:03:33,733 --> 03:03:35,099
short lines are not

3729
03:03:35,600 --> 03:03:38,400
but this is this is this is the ten year right

3730
03:03:38,666 --> 03:03:41,766
so this is why when the fed was telling us well

3731
03:03:41,766 --> 03:03:43,366
we expect inflation to come down

3732
03:03:43,366 --> 03:03:44,599
they look at this and they go well

3733
03:03:44,600 --> 03:03:45,966
the markets telling us that

3734
03:03:46,266 --> 03:03:50,366
but short term things are getting so rocky on inflation

3735
03:03:50,466 --> 03:03:53,599
that what they're worried about this is really important now

3736
03:03:53,666 --> 03:03:56,133
that this will come unhinged

3737
03:03:56,133 --> 03:03:58,899
come on pinned and start to do this

3738
03:03:59,166 --> 03:04:00,666
and if that happens

3739
03:04:00,933 --> 03:04:02,066
that would mean that oh

3740
03:04:02,066 --> 03:04:03,966
boy people are thinking inflation's going to go way

3741
03:04:03,966 --> 03:04:04,799
higher than it

3742
03:04:05,700 --> 03:04:09,400
and you know everything starts to get rocky and then we're in

3743
03:04:09,700 --> 03:04:12,166
we're in big big problems okay

3744
03:04:12,266 --> 03:04:14,199
but this is a market this is a really

3745
03:04:14,200 --> 03:04:17,166
important concept this idea of the brake even rates

3746
03:04:17,533 --> 03:04:18,333
okay

3747
03:04:19,333 --> 03:04:20,066
so

3748
03:04:20,066 --> 03:04:21,699
你咋这么交交代你

3749
03:04:21,700 --> 03:04:23,133
是不是少林啊

3750
03:04:23,366 --> 03:04:24,799
now what about returns

3751
03:04:25,333 --> 03:04:28,566
okay now sources of investment risk are of course

3752
03:04:28,566 --> 03:04:30,699
the macroeconomy in other words like

3753
03:04:30,800 --> 03:04:32,366
inflation like you just said

3754
03:04:33,366 --> 03:04:34,399
you know things like

3755
03:04:34,733 --> 03:04:36,099
trade我我知道

3756
03:04:36,100 --> 03:04:37,866
这个时候终于有用

3757
03:04:38,000 --> 03:04:39,000
这个再开始

3758
03:04:39,300 --> 03:04:40,200
终于有用

3759
03:04:40,600 --> 03:04:42,133
trade terrace put on it

3760
03:04:42,366 --> 03:04:44,399
things like on employment things like

3761
03:04:44,400 --> 03:04:46,366
productivity is a huge one a

3762
03:04:46,533 --> 03:04:47,666
等会先停一下

3763
03:04:47,666 --> 03:04:50,766
先别说先别说话让我先理解一下

3764
03:04:51,500 --> 03:04:52,300
啊

3765
03:04:56,266 --> 03:04:59,199
投资风险的来源

3766
03:05:03,133 --> 03:05:08,399
风险的来源有宏观上的波动

3767
03:05:09,066 --> 03:05:10,133
然后

3768
03:05:14,066 --> 03:05:16,333
多种行业

3769
03:05:16,400 --> 03:05:17,700
的

3770
03:05:19,200 --> 03:05:20,200
这是啥意思啊

3771
03:05:20,200 --> 03:05:21,266
什么时候改变

3772
03:05:21,266 --> 03:05:23,799
多种行业的什么时候改变

3773
03:05:24,700 --> 03:05:28,733
哎呦你怎么累呀萌萌别哭呀呦呦呦

3774
03:05:30,566 --> 03:05:31,366
嗯

3775
03:05:59,500 --> 03:06:01,700
大哭我没有困

3776
03:06:01,866 --> 03:06:03,133
我没有困

3777
03:06:04,500 --> 03:06:07,366
我我不会困的这才几点

3778
03:06:16,200 --> 03:06:19,000
streets start to lose their value quickly

3779
03:06:19,000 --> 03:06:20,866
for all kinds of reasons now you know

3780
03:06:20,866 --> 03:06:21,766
for example

3781
03:06:21,966 --> 03:06:25,266
you know we're changing from fossil fuels by no race

3782
03:06:25,500 --> 03:06:28,166
share beginning price

3783
03:06:31,800 --> 03:06:32,600
啊

3784
03:06:33,100 --> 03:06:34,466
哒哒哒哒哒

3785
03:06:34,500 --> 03:06:35,766
啊

3786
03:06:37,566 --> 03:06:39,133
哭可以自拍吗

3787
03:06:39,133 --> 03:06:42,333
我很好奇别哭了别哭了

3788
03:06:45,933 --> 03:06:46,599
叮

3789
03:06:46,600 --> 03:06:48,333
crazy off

3790
03:06:50,266 --> 03:06:51,466
这能不能

3791
03:06:51,533 --> 03:06:52,933
复制粘贴

3792
03:06:57,700 --> 03:06:59,133
别哭了别哭了

3793
03:06:59,133 --> 03:07:02,099
再哭只能按刷屏给你算禁言了

3794
03:07:05,600 --> 03:07:06,500
我才3月呢

3795
03:07:06,500 --> 03:07:08,600
我还带着坚强的学习专业课呢

3796
03:07:08,600 --> 03:07:09,900
你才不到一岁

3797
03:07:10,100 --> 03:07:11,933
你为什么来我这哭呀

3798
03:07:13,933 --> 03:07:15,399
我刚上个月大

3799
03:07:17,133 --> 03:07:20,166
哎我也认识我也不知道是什么意思

3800
03:07:21,333 --> 03:07:24,599
我甚至还不如你我好多词我都不认识

3801
03:07:39,000 --> 03:07:41,400
谢谢啊非让我想起开学的人

3802
03:07:41,400 --> 03:07:42,333
哈哈哈

3803
03:07:42,600 --> 03:07:43,766
哎呀

3804
03:07:44,966 --> 03:07:47,066
我不想上学

3805
03:07:47,166 --> 03:07:49,966
我不想上学我也要开始哭了

3806
03:07:49,966 --> 03:07:51,166
我不想上学

3807
03:07:53,900 --> 03:07:56,666
男朋友不理你你来我这哭

3808
03:07:58,066 --> 03:07:59,599
你好过分啊

3809
03:07:59,600 --> 03:08:02,000
你男朋友不理你来我这哭

3810
03:08:03,700 --> 03:08:04,600
我的猫也在看

3811
03:08:04,600 --> 03:08:06,966
说不定他看中了说不定他比我厉害

3812
03:08:07,133 --> 03:08:09,566
but we know but you know again that's

3813
03:08:09,800 --> 03:08:13,333
relatively speaking short lived now how short is short

3814
03:08:13,333 --> 03:08:14,099
it could be

3815
03:08:14,100 --> 03:08:18,133
a number of years but it's not like fifty years and remember we

3816
03:08:18,666 --> 03:08:21,199
有道磁铁对我学业的巨大帮助

3817
03:08:21,533 --> 03:08:23,499
再加上那个什么那个

3818
03:08:23,733 --> 03:08:25,599
那个KCS is coming though

3819
03:08:25,866 --> 03:08:26,666
okay

3820
03:08:26,800 --> 03:08:30,566
and there are firm specific on expected development so

3821
03:08:30,566 --> 03:08:31,499
like there are things

3822
03:08:31,500 --> 03:08:33,700
in certain firms that you thought were really good

3823
03:08:33,700 --> 03:08:35,166
but something was going on

3824
03:08:36,100 --> 03:08:37,133
谢谢一只

3825
03:08:37,333 --> 03:08:38,666
路北乡的关注吧

3826
03:08:38,666 --> 03:08:40,733
a bunch of money in there well

3827
03:08:41,366 --> 03:08:42,566
you're in problems right

3828
03:08:42,766 --> 03:08:45,733
so those are the kinds of risks

3829
03:08:45,733 --> 03:08:49,366
and they're not that's not that's a very very short list right

3830
03:08:49,600 --> 03:08:51,066
but the idea here is

3831
03:08:52,166 --> 03:08:56,333
that we will try some of these types of wrists we can get rid of

3832
03:08:56,700 --> 03:08:59,266
by proper portfolio construction

3833
03:08:59,533 --> 03:09:00,699
and some we can't

3834
03:09:00,700 --> 03:09:03,200
谢谢今天不写作业的小心心

3835
03:09:03,200 --> 03:09:07,533
and the idea will be is to identify the level of

3836
03:09:07,733 --> 03:09:09,399
these of the wrists

3837
03:09:09,500 --> 03:09:13,333
that in the assets that we're looking at that we can get rid of

3838
03:09:13,766 --> 03:09:15,699
and then look at what's left over its

3839
03:09:15,733 --> 03:09:18,466
is that an acceptable amount of risk for what we want to do

3840
03:09:19,133 --> 03:09:19,533
okay

3841
03:09:19,533 --> 03:09:22,333
that's one of the kinds of things that we're looking at here

3842
03:09:23,666 --> 03:09:25,666
okay so we'll come back to that and

3843
03:09:25,966 --> 03:09:26,733
you know like

3844
03:09:26,733 --> 03:09:29,333
i said we're just looking at this now one thing that happens

3845
03:09:29,333 --> 03:09:30,133
every year

3846
03:09:30,933 --> 03:09:34,133
is this idea holding period return

3847
03:09:34,600 --> 03:09:36,000
i honestly have been

3848
03:09:36,266 --> 03:09:37,066
turn

3849
03:09:40,100 --> 03:09:44,266
嘟嘟嘟嘟嘟嘟嘟嘟嘟嘟

3850
03:09:53,933 --> 03:09:58,733
股票的收盘价减去开始的价格

3851
03:09:58,733 --> 03:10:01,699
加上现金的鼓励

3852
03:10:07,666 --> 03:10:12,333
起价除以起价收盘的价格减去起价

3853
03:10:12,666 --> 03:10:15,699
加上这现金鼓励是个什么东西

3854
03:10:16,866 --> 03:10:20,599
狠狠的狠狠的进行一个谷歌的查

3855
03:10:20,600 --> 03:10:21,666
哈哈

3856
03:10:24,733 --> 03:10:26,733
为什么要加上啊

3857
03:10:29,333 --> 03:10:32,066
让你男朋友上舰进群我们狠狠的

3858
03:10:32,066 --> 03:10:34,933
这个这个嫣嫣人狠狠的疼爱一下他

3859
03:10:41,166 --> 03:10:45,499
别哭了别哭了再哭只能按刷屏禁言了

3860
03:10:48,866 --> 03:10:53,899
公司与投资者分享利润的一种方式

3861
03:10:58,300 --> 03:10:59,100
啊

3862
03:10:59,700 --> 03:11:00,500
降

3863
03:11:00,666 --> 03:11:01,466
降降

3864
03:11:01,700 --> 03:11:03,066
降降降降

3865
03:11:03,100 --> 03:11:06,533
以货币支付而不是作为股票公司

3866
03:11:07,800 --> 03:11:09,600
那为什么要加上啊

3867
03:11:10,500 --> 03:11:12,400
那为什么要加上这个

3868
03:11:14,266 --> 03:11:16,199
为什么不是捡的哈

3869
03:11:16,766 --> 03:11:17,599
哈哈

3870
03:11:18,366 --> 03:11:20,299
我好逆天我听听他的

3871
03:11:20,466 --> 03:11:21,766
you know as you can probably

3872
03:11:21,766 --> 03:11:24,566
tell i've been teaching this stuff for quite a while

3873
03:11:26,066 --> 03:11:26,999
and i don't

3874
03:11:27,200 --> 03:11:28,766
in all those years i've asked him

3875
03:11:30,133 --> 03:11:34,166
i've tried i've thought about it and it's a puzzle

3876
03:11:35,000 --> 03:11:37,966
this seems to cause a lot of problems every year

3877
03:11:37,966 --> 03:11:39,466
and here's the way this works

3878
03:11:39,700 --> 03:11:40,900
people look out at this and they go yeah

3879
03:11:40,900 --> 03:11:43,066
this is nothing sure boom they move不是啊

3880
03:11:43,300 --> 03:11:44,400
你不理解

3881
03:11:44,600 --> 03:11:48,166
不理解的话容易在实操的时候就容易

3882
03:11:48,200 --> 03:11:49,700
把它搞成剪掉了

3883
03:11:49,700 --> 03:11:50,166
你知道吧

3884
03:11:50,166 --> 03:11:51,766
get doing something

3885
03:11:51,766 --> 03:11:53,733
or they do an assignment or something like that

3886
03:11:53,733 --> 03:11:54,133
and

3887
03:11:54,133 --> 03:11:57,933
all the wheels come off on this holding period return business

3888
03:11:58,366 --> 03:12:00,933
and i haven't i really don't know why

3889
03:12:01,533 --> 03:12:03,699
because it's the simplest thing

3890
03:12:05,133 --> 03:12:09,266
possible it's just the return that you would get

3891
03:12:09,266 --> 03:12:13,333
based on how long you decide to hold something

3892
03:12:15,500 --> 03:12:16,300
that's it

3893
03:12:17,166 --> 03:12:17,666
so whatever

3894
03:12:17,666 --> 03:12:22,199
the asset is whether it's a bond to stock a house gold oil

3895
03:12:22,866 --> 03:12:24,133
whatever it is

3896
03:12:24,333 --> 03:12:26,933
you decide that you will not buy it

3897
03:12:27,166 --> 03:12:31,699
now let's say and then four years from now you decide to sell it

3898
03:12:31,733 --> 03:12:34,966
so what's your holding period four years

3899
03:12:35,700 --> 03:12:39,200
so how much money did you make or lose

3900
03:12:39,200 --> 03:12:40,966
between now and four years

3901
03:12:41,000 --> 03:12:44,566
somebody else buys the same instrument like let's say the same

3902
03:12:44,566 --> 03:12:45,366
stuff

3903
03:12:45,800 --> 03:12:49,266
and they decide that they so want to sell it in two years

3904
03:12:49,366 --> 03:12:51,133
so they're holding period you know

3905
03:12:51,133 --> 03:12:52,333
come on it's two years

3906
03:12:52,666 --> 03:12:55,333
so you're going to have different rates of return unless

3907
03:12:55,333 --> 03:12:57,066
it's by food they're the same

3908
03:12:57,533 --> 03:12:58,199
right

3909
03:12:58,200 --> 03:13:01,866
that's all this is is how much you realize or make

3910
03:13:01,933 --> 03:13:03,199
over the amount of time

3911
03:13:03,200 --> 03:13:08,366
you decide to hold it so look it's just the ending price here

3912
03:13:08,366 --> 03:13:10,299
we're using this could be a bond or something

3913
03:13:10,300 --> 03:13:11,733
but we're using a stock so

3914
03:13:11,800 --> 03:13:13,666
the ending price of a stock

3915
03:13:13,933 --> 03:13:15,466
so that's what you sell it for

3916
03:13:15,466 --> 03:13:17,499
that's what you bought it and along the way

3917
03:13:17,500 --> 03:13:20,066
it might have paid you something like a dividend

3918
03:13:20,400 --> 03:13:22,566
or if it was a bond it might pay you a

3919
03:13:23,600 --> 03:13:25,700
Cuban if it's a Cuban bond

3920
03:13:26,066 --> 03:13:26,866
right

3921
03:13:27,333 --> 03:13:30,133
and then you just divide that by the beginning price that's it

3922
03:13:30,133 --> 03:13:31,966
it's a rig it's just a percentage

3923
03:13:32,366 --> 03:13:36,333
so it's said hpr the holding period return

3924
03:13:36,700 --> 03:13:37,600
just out so

3925
03:13:38,200 --> 03:13:38,933
i don't know why this

3926
03:13:38,933 --> 03:13:40,133
啥玩意是现金

3927
03:13:40,133 --> 03:13:40,666
古稀

3928
03:13:40,666 --> 03:13:43,333
我忽然不理解了哎这是个啥来着

3929
03:13:43,466 --> 03:13:45,199
搜个定义啊家人们

3930
03:13:45,200 --> 03:13:46,266
搜个定义

3931
03:13:49,000 --> 03:13:51,200
啊呀呀呀

3932
03:13:51,866 --> 03:13:53,333
哒哒哒哒

3933
03:13:54,466 --> 03:13:55,566
哇

3934
03:13:58,066 --> 03:14:01,166
这是对啊那这是公司

3935
03:14:01,866 --> 03:14:03,399
从收益的里面

3936
03:14:03,400 --> 03:14:06,566
以现金的形式向投资者支付的款项

3937
03:14:06,566 --> 03:14:07,399
那为什么

3938
03:14:08,133 --> 03:14:11,333
这个股票的求其回报加上这个东西

3939
03:14:12,000 --> 03:14:12,900
好奇怪

3940
03:14:15,200 --> 03:14:16,600
太经典了哈

3941
03:14:16,733 --> 03:14:18,133
哈哈哈

3942
03:14:18,733 --> 03:14:21,333
哎给我讲讲吧家人们

3943
03:14:21,333 --> 03:14:22,699
敢做全

3944
03:14:22,966 --> 03:14:26,566
全VF界第一个让谁又给自己讲课的

3945
03:14:26,566 --> 03:14:28,966
你现在这个

3946
03:14:31,133 --> 03:14:33,799
跟你说有讲课的兵已经不稀奇了

3947
03:14:33,800 --> 03:14:35,666
我们现在缺少的是

3948
03:14:37,300 --> 03:14:39,900
让水友给自己抢客人名

3949
03:14:44,966 --> 03:14:47,266
哎呀呀呀呀呀

3950
03:14:47,266 --> 03:14:49,699
不准你教我们金融费啊

3951
03:14:50,366 --> 03:14:51,599
教教我吧

3952
03:14:51,600 --> 03:14:57,366
and the press and the press and divided the HPR等于

3953
03:14:57,566 --> 03:15:05,366
呃ending price是110减去beginning price减100

3954
03:15:05,566 --> 03:15:10,466
然后加上开始的按键加上第一

3955
03:15:10,800 --> 03:15:14,466
是一 1,100啊

3956
03:15:14,466 --> 03:15:19,066
110-100+40再除以

3957
03:15:19,366 --> 03:15:27,399
除以那个起盘价就是14/100啊不对

3958
03:15:35,266 --> 03:15:37,199
对14/100对对对

3959
03:15:37,333 --> 03:15:39,333
那他为什么要拆开呀

3960
03:15:41,166 --> 03:15:44,533
为啥一个110-100+4

3961
03:15:44,533 --> 03:15:47,266
然后他还得拆成两个数字来算

3962
03:15:47,500 --> 03:15:49,566
呃我也觉得是这样

3963
03:15:49,566 --> 03:15:51,666
是的是的是的是的就是这样

3964
03:15:51,666 --> 03:15:52,733
没错没错就是这样

3965
03:15:52,733 --> 03:15:54,733
啊对对对对啊不对不对不对

3966
03:15:55,333 --> 03:15:56,499
啊对对对

3967
03:16:00,533 --> 03:16:01,799
这是鼓啊

3968
03:16:01,800 --> 03:16:04,366
我说了我我知道了我知道了

3969
03:16:04,366 --> 03:16:06,733
这个前面跟后面的不一样

3970
03:16:06,733 --> 03:16:08,133
下面剪的是

3971
03:16:08,733 --> 03:16:12,799
一个是这个capital pants

3972
03:16:13,300 --> 03:16:17,900
这个要另一个是那个Divine的这个要

3973
03:16:18,200 --> 03:16:22,400
啊整个加起来是HPR就是一个是

3974
03:16:23,933 --> 03:16:26,766
资本的收益加古稀的收益

3975
03:16:27,133 --> 03:16:28,799
前面跟后面

3976
03:16:28,800 --> 03:16:31,933
哦所以那个资本收益率就是

3977
03:16:32,766 --> 03:16:33,933
要算资本收益

3978
03:16:33,933 --> 03:16:35,566
就是那个安定press

3979
03:16:35,600 --> 03:16:37,266
减比基尼再除以比基尼

3980
03:16:37,333 --> 03:16:40,266
然后如果是要算那个是股7的话

3981
03:16:40,333 --> 03:16:42,699
这两个加起来才是HPR

3982
03:16:47,200 --> 03:16:48,333
啊啊

3983
03:16:48,666 --> 03:16:51,266
好像懂了又好像没懂估计是我懂了吧

3984
03:16:51,266 --> 03:16:52,066
谢谢

3985
03:16:52,100 --> 03:16:54,333
MLC GJ

3986
03:16:54,700 --> 03:16:56,866
的刺激宝哥的幸运时榜

3987
03:16:56,866 --> 03:16:59,933
感谢我怎么这都能收到礼物了

3988
03:17:00,133 --> 03:17:03,099
谢谢龙明泽之外的这个好外放

3989
03:17:03,100 --> 03:17:04,866
感谢阿力哥到谢谢谢谢

3990
03:17:04,866 --> 03:17:05,666
and

3991
03:17:06,333 --> 03:17:07,133
you know

3992
03:17:07,733 --> 03:17:08,966
like four weeks

3993
03:17:09,166 --> 03:17:12,299
we start doing stuff they they just go they get all

3994
03:17:12,966 --> 03:17:14,399
well what's the holding period return

3995
03:17:14,400 --> 03:17:15,666
because it's not the hill to maturity

3996
03:17:15,666 --> 03:17:17,199
it's like all the hill maturity

3997
03:17:17,400 --> 03:17:18,333
period are different

3998
03:17:19,466 --> 03:17:20,533
yes they are

3999
03:17:21,366 --> 03:17:22,099
but the holding

4000
03:17:22,100 --> 03:17:24,933
period the wielder maturity is kind of a complicated thing

4001
03:17:24,933 --> 03:17:26,266
this is definitely

4002
03:17:26,266 --> 03:17:27,499
not complicated

4003
03:17:27,800 --> 03:17:30,000
it doesn't get any simpler than this okay

4004
03:17:30,000 --> 03:17:32,600
i know i'm raving about this but believe me i

4005
03:17:33,166 --> 03:17:36,133
i've in the class sometimes i just kind of calm

4006
03:17:36,766 --> 03:17:37,366
come on

4007
03:17:37,366 --> 03:17:41,333
guys what is the problem and they really stress out about this

4008
03:17:41,333 --> 03:17:44,066
so let's be very very clear okay guys

4009
03:17:44,300 --> 03:17:45,733
it's very very clear

4010
03:17:45,733 --> 03:17:46,533
okay guys

4011
03:17:46,866 --> 03:17:47,733
a hundred and two

4012
03:17:47,866 --> 03:17:48,466
听到没有

4013
03:17:48,466 --> 03:17:49,799
他在嘲讽我们

4014
03:17:49,800 --> 03:17:51,200
是very very clear

4015
03:17:51,300 --> 03:17:54,066
哈哈哈你们听到了没

4016
03:17:55,266 --> 03:17:56,733
抱不住了

4017
03:17:57,866 --> 03:18:00,999
you know you bought something for a hundred a stock would say

4018
03:18:01,266 --> 03:18:02,066
you sold it

4019
03:18:02,100 --> 03:18:04,733
for a hundred and ten you paid a dividend

4020
03:18:04,966 --> 03:18:09,266
so you added up so made 10 percent capital game

4021
03:18:09,400 --> 03:18:10,133
meaning that the

4022
03:18:10,133 --> 03:18:13,099
price of the instrument itself went up by 10 dollars

4023
03:18:13,333 --> 03:18:18,099
you also so you paid that's that's this part right here right

4024
03:18:18,133 --> 03:18:19,966
you made 10 percent on that

4025
03:18:20,733 --> 03:18:22,599
and you made 4 percent

4026
03:18:23,166 --> 03:18:25,166
on the dividend you add them up

4027
03:18:25,533 --> 03:18:30,599
okay and you get a four percent holding period return

4028
03:18:31,066 --> 03:18:32,066
so you get

4029
03:18:33,500 --> 03:18:36,566
partying不算好听这个是什么return

4030
03:18:36,566 --> 03:18:37,933
that's it okay

4031
03:18:38,100 --> 03:18:39,333
1米我干奶

4032
03:18:39,333 --> 03:18:40,133
alright

4033
03:18:41,133 --> 03:18:41,933
holding period

4034
03:18:41,933 --> 03:18:45,366
yield it's just the only period return

4035
03:18:45,366 --> 03:18:46,166
okay

4036
03:18:46,800 --> 03:18:47,600
now

4037
03:18:47,800 --> 03:18:49,066
a lot expected return

4038
03:18:49,066 --> 03:18:50,966
so they're getting a little more serious so

4039
03:18:50,966 --> 03:18:55,933
expected returns are what's important for security analysis

4040
03:18:56,466 --> 03:18:57,899
what important for

4041
03:18:57,966 --> 03:19:00,366
security and什么

4042
03:19:01,766 --> 03:19:04,099
because why because we don't know

4043
03:19:04,100 --> 03:19:07,800
unless we buy a bond and even sometimes when we buy bonds

4044
03:19:08,000 --> 03:19:10,300
we're not sure how long we're going to hold them

4045
03:19:10,966 --> 03:19:12,933
so we make an expectation

4046
03:19:13,566 --> 03:19:14,366
on

4047
03:19:15,066 --> 03:19:17,533
how much something is going to be worth in the future

4048
03:19:20,100 --> 03:19:22,666
我不管他啥意思我先记下来吧

4049
03:19:22,933 --> 03:19:23,799
先记下来

4050
03:19:23,800 --> 03:19:26,900
把他狠狠的复制粘贴到我的这个

4051
03:19:27,933 --> 03:19:30,733
复制粘贴到我的那个文章里面

4052
03:19:31,300 --> 03:19:32,733
我出去补了一下

4053
03:19:32,933 --> 03:19:34,166
我还没到

4054
03:19:34,333 --> 03:19:36,299
补不到哈哈

4055
03:19:36,300 --> 03:19:37,700
什么安全分析

4056
03:19:37,700 --> 03:19:39,300
什么叫安全分析

4057
03:19:43,366 --> 03:19:45,366
呀呀呀呀呀呀

4058
03:19:45,366 --> 03:19:46,799
咯咯咯咯咯

4059
03:19:58,466 --> 03:19:59,899
我其实不是很理解这个

4060
03:19:59,900 --> 03:20:01,866
这个s是什么东西

4061
03:20:03,133 --> 03:20:05,099
这个s是个什么东西啊

4062
03:20:07,800 --> 03:20:08,600
哎呀

4063
03:20:08,900 --> 03:20:11,266
PK一下吧家人们PK一下

4064
03:20:11,700 --> 03:20:15,666
谢谢巡游潮汐的红包放放感谢阿力哥

4065
03:20:15,666 --> 03:20:16,566
谢谢谢谢

4066
03:20:16,566 --> 03:20:19,066
你的学位就可以加我的名字了

4067
03:20:19,500 --> 03:20:23,133
我写的论文如果你敢著名的话可以

4068
03:20:23,966 --> 03:20:25,133
希望收益

4069
03:20:26,366 --> 03:20:30,699
哪个s就是这个这个下面这个dog dog

4070
03:20:30,900 --> 03:20:32,133
dog这个

4071
03:20:34,733 --> 03:20:36,133
3个场景

4072
03:20:38,733 --> 03:20:39,899
看一下题吧

4073
03:20:39,900 --> 03:20:42,100
主播的悟性一直都很烂

4074
03:20:42,100 --> 03:20:43,966
让我来狠狠的看一下

4075
03:20:45,000 --> 03:20:45,800
这个

4076
03:20:45,800 --> 03:20:46,700
那个

4077
03:20:47,166 --> 03:20:51,133
1234 然后就相互乘一下对吧

4078
03:20:51,266 --> 03:20:52,499
是这样对吧

4079
03:20:52,566 --> 03:20:54,866
所以这个就是每一个场景

4080
03:20:54,866 --> 03:20:58,866
这个场景他他其实只是一个一个编号

4081
03:20:58,866 --> 03:21:00,699
就是把他们的这个概率

4082
03:21:00,700 --> 03:21:02,533
跟那个场景的概率

4083
03:21:02,800 --> 03:21:03,933
相乘一下

4084
03:21:03,933 --> 03:21:05,099
就是这个

4085
03:21:06,933 --> 03:21:07,733
这个

4086
03:21:09,100 --> 03:21:13,566
预期的回报应该是这样来继续听

4087
03:21:18,366 --> 03:21:20,299
as we live in an uncertain world

4088
03:21:21,333 --> 03:21:23,466
so when we live in a non certain world

4089
03:21:23,466 --> 03:21:25,266
we're talking about probabilities

4090
03:21:25,600 --> 03:21:28,266
so when we have the e in front of the r

4091
03:21:28,266 --> 03:21:31,599
like this that big e that means we expect

4092
03:21:32,300 --> 03:21:33,333
we don't what this doesn't mean

4093
03:21:33,333 --> 03:21:35,333
we're gonna get it it just means we expect

4094
03:21:35,400 --> 03:21:37,933
and usually the way to think

4095
03:21:37,933 --> 03:21:40,299
about this you gotta be a little carefully using this word

4096
03:21:40,300 --> 03:21:41,100
but it means

4097
03:21:41,366 --> 03:21:45,266
on average doesn't mean like this month or even this year

4098
03:21:45,333 --> 03:21:47,199
but on average

4099
03:21:47,566 --> 03:21:48,366
okay

4100
03:21:48,700 --> 03:21:51,400
and there might be some parameters surrounding that average

4101
03:21:52,900 --> 03:21:54,466
we would expect to get

4102
03:21:55,133 --> 03:21:59,966
this the what is pops out from this side of the equation okay

4103
03:22:00,100 --> 03:22:01,800
so this is the probability

4104
03:22:01,866 --> 03:22:04,966
of something happening like good economy bad economy

4105
03:22:06,500 --> 03:22:09,166
social economy whatever all right

4106
03:22:09,766 --> 03:22:14,133
what the holding period is in each scenario

4107
03:22:14,733 --> 03:22:17,466
now normally for what we do we're not going to worry about that

4108
03:22:17,466 --> 03:22:18,133
but we look at

4109
03:22:18,133 --> 03:22:18,933
but

4110
03:22:18,933 --> 03:22:22,266
you know it just means that it is return that we get

4111
03:22:22,900 --> 03:22:26,000
the holding period we get for each of these

4112
03:22:26,566 --> 03:22:28,466
and as of course is a scenario

4113
03:22:28,466 --> 03:22:31,466
so a scenario could be high for good economy

4114
03:22:31,466 --> 03:22:33,066
low for bad economy

4115
03:22:33,666 --> 03:22:35,266
or something like that okay

4116
03:22:35,466 --> 03:22:38,866
so it's just the probability and the summation sign the big

4117
03:22:39,300 --> 03:22:42,600
Greek letter there's Sigma the capital Greek letter Sigma

4118
03:22:42,766 --> 03:22:45,266
the big the big one here this one here

4119
03:22:45,700 --> 03:22:47,200
just means we're Gonna add them up

4120
03:22:47,466 --> 03:22:49,266
so we're just gonna sum all this up

4121
03:22:49,266 --> 03:22:52,599
over all instruments so what that means is simply this okay

4122
03:22:52,766 --> 03:22:53,566
oh sorry i

4123
03:22:54,700 --> 03:22:55,533
啊

4124
03:22:56,100 --> 03:22:56,733
大姑

4125
03:22:56,733 --> 03:22:57,666
大姑

4126
03:23:09,900 --> 03:23:10,966
主播的

4127
03:23:11,000 --> 03:23:14,800
学历跟学习一直都非常非常之不轻

4128
03:23:15,533 --> 03:23:17,599
谢谢胜利队对话的牛蛙

4129
03:23:17,600 --> 03:23:17,966
牛蛙

4130
03:23:17,966 --> 03:23:21,133
谢谢青夏的打call谢谢香草的打call

4131
03:23:21,366 --> 03:23:23,699
谢谢菠萝老师的爱的爱的

4132
03:23:26,300 --> 03:23:27,700
这这这

4133
03:23:28,366 --> 03:23:30,099
其实我我在

4134
03:23:30,133 --> 03:23:33,566
学习中最最害怕的就是这种

4135
03:23:33,566 --> 03:23:34,466
一大串

4136
03:23:34,533 --> 03:23:38,299
不认识的式子等于一个不认识的符号

4137
03:23:38,300 --> 03:23:39,166
不认识的式

4138
03:23:39,166 --> 03:23:40,766
子乘以不认识的字母

4139
03:23:40,766 --> 03:23:42,533
乘以减去不认识的符号

4140
03:23:42,533 --> 03:23:44,099
这些我最害怕的就是

4141
03:23:44,100 --> 03:23:46,166
因为我理解那个新的那个

4142
03:23:46,500 --> 03:23:49,100
就每一个政府什么代表什么

4143
03:23:49,266 --> 03:23:52,666
我理解这个特别的慢然后就很慢很慢

4144
03:23:55,066 --> 03:23:57,999
谢谢我是要代理的打call

4145
03:23:58,200 --> 03:24:01,566
和爱了爱了和你玩啊你你在呀

4146
03:24:01,666 --> 03:24:03,333
那个我是要代理

4147
03:24:03,333 --> 03:24:05,933
可不可以重新发我一份你的地址

4148
03:24:05,933 --> 03:24:06,899
原来你在

4149
03:24:07,266 --> 03:24:08,333
那个你的地址

4150
03:24:08,333 --> 03:24:09,599
因为地址不全

4151
03:24:09,600 --> 03:24:12,000
然后之前寄快递没法寄出去

4152
03:24:12,000 --> 03:24:13,166
寄不出去

4153
03:24:14,066 --> 03:24:15,666
谢谢蓉蓉的

4154
03:24:16,666 --> 03:24:18,866
爱了爱了非常感谢爱了一个

4155
03:24:19,533 --> 03:24:21,666
你刚才说全不认识好多呀

4156
03:24:21,666 --> 03:24:24,099
我全不认识咋办

4157
03:24:24,200 --> 03:24:25,500
全不认识

4158
03:24:26,000 --> 03:24:28,000
这高中应该学了吧

4159
03:24:28,300 --> 03:24:29,733
我没上过高中

4160
03:24:30,066 --> 03:24:31,933
呃呃呃呃呃

4161
03:24:32,300 --> 03:24:34,100
我没上过高中

4162
03:24:35,933 --> 03:24:37,133
真的假的

4163
03:24:38,066 --> 03:24:39,666
我我是不认识符号

4164
03:24:39,666 --> 03:24:41,399
你要说这这具体是个啥

4165
03:24:41,400 --> 03:24:45,466
我可能知道这是个啥但是就对是你

4166
03:24:50,333 --> 03:24:54,533
STD谷歌了一下性传播疾病

4167
03:24:55,466 --> 03:24:56,266
这

4168
03:24:57,200 --> 03:24:58,266
哎

4169
03:24:58,733 --> 03:25:00,766
我好像一个逆天

4170
03:25:01,533 --> 03:25:03,333
我知道方差跟标准差

4171
03:25:03,333 --> 03:25:05,899
但是我我要在脑子里理解出来

4172
03:25:05,900 --> 03:25:07,966
就这个方差和标准差

4173
03:25:08,266 --> 03:25:09,533
是这个意思

4174
03:25:09,600 --> 03:25:11,300
我就要很久

4175
03:25:11,300 --> 03:25:14,200
如果你跟我说方差公式我说啊我知道

4176
03:25:14,333 --> 03:25:16,899
但是如果你把这一串式的摆在我面前

4177
03:25:16,900 --> 03:25:18,900
我要反应很久很久很久很久

4178
03:25:22,900 --> 03:25:25,000
我是先去谷歌搜了STD

4179
03:25:25,000 --> 03:25:27,600
你们可以试试看那STD能搜出来什么

4180
03:25:28,100 --> 03:25:29,333
挺搞笑的

4181
03:25:31,800 --> 03:25:33,266
it just it just

4182
03:25:33,700 --> 03:25:35,566
just means you add them all up it just

4183
03:25:35,600 --> 03:25:39,300
means if i had a probability about being a high economy at 40

4184
03:25:39,566 --> 03:25:40,999
low economy at 60

4185
03:25:42,066 --> 03:25:45,666
and i had asset a and asset b

4186
03:25:45,900 --> 03:25:47,100
and you know

4187
03:25:47,566 --> 03:25:51,666
in a good economy sla pays 10 and a bad economy it pays 5

4188
03:25:52,133 --> 03:25:54,733
so it's expected we've returned to be four

4189
03:25:55,133 --> 03:25:58,399
point this time as this let me just take that over now

4190
03:25:58,566 --> 03:25:59,899
so that would be four

4191
03:26:00,100 --> 03:26:01,766
and this would be three

4192
03:26:02,300 --> 03:26:05,733
okay so we would expect this guy to make seven

4193
03:26:09,266 --> 03:26:10,899
这啥了我错过了啥

4194
03:26:10,900 --> 03:26:15,166
他写了个4*10=46*5=3

4195
03:26:15,733 --> 03:26:18,733
然后加起来等于7

4196
03:26:19,000 --> 03:26:19,800
okay

4197
03:26:20,366 --> 03:26:22,966
so that would be our expected return of this asset

4198
03:26:22,966 --> 03:26:24,166
over those two types of

4199
03:26:24,500 --> 03:26:25,300
ideas

4200
03:26:27,300 --> 03:26:28,566
the other thing that we're going to need

4201
03:26:28,566 --> 03:26:30,333
to deal with is variance

4202
03:26:30,666 --> 03:26:31,899
now in variance

4203
03:26:32,100 --> 03:26:36,900
what we do if you remember is we take this expected return

4204
03:26:37,700 --> 03:26:40,866
now like i said that's usually going to be an average

4205
03:26:40,900 --> 03:26:42,466
over a long period of time

4206
03:26:43,000 --> 03:26:48,466
and then we look at the return in every particular state

4207
03:26:48,600 --> 03:26:52,133
of the world against that average so sometimes

4208
03:26:52,200 --> 03:26:53,900
这个RS

4209
03:26:54,000 --> 03:26:58,400
和ER前面都有告诉过怎么算吧

4210
03:26:58,733 --> 03:27:00,733
ER和这个是ER

4211
03:27:00,733 --> 03:27:05,099
然后那个RS是前面的那个

4212
03:27:09,900 --> 03:27:15,466
谢谢MHF CGG的白银宝盒的金币的金币

4213
03:27:15,933 --> 03:27:18,733
哈哈哈我要哭了

4214
03:27:21,733 --> 03:27:23,699
燕子和TA兑现

4215
03:27:23,900 --> 03:27:26,500
我都不好意思跟TA说话

4216
03:27:26,500 --> 03:27:26,800
我

4217
03:27:26,800 --> 03:27:30,166
我跟人家说不明白我是个弱弱

4218
03:27:30,200 --> 03:27:31,733
弱弱的烟

4219
03:27:33,866 --> 03:27:35,366
谢谢哈哈哈

4220
03:27:35,366 --> 03:27:39,699
水晶币泡泡糖泡泡糖泡泡糖家人们

4221
03:27:40,266 --> 03:27:42,266
我已经没有了快乐了

4222
03:27:42,266 --> 03:27:44,599
我的快乐去了哪里了

4223
03:28:02,500 --> 03:28:05,200
谢谢蓉蓉的52朵小花花

4224
03:28:05,200 --> 03:28:06,033
非常感谢

4225
03:28:06,033 --> 03:28:07,666
这就是学习的代价

4226
03:28:08,266 --> 03:28:10,766
this might be ten let's say the averages four

4227
03:28:10,766 --> 03:28:13,566
so that's really good but other times it might just be four

4228
03:28:13,566 --> 03:28:15,233
so now that would be zero in there

4229
03:28:15,433 --> 03:28:18,099
other times this might be negative ten

4230
03:28:18,433 --> 03:28:20,233
and this would still be four because

4231
03:28:20,233 --> 03:28:22,066
even though it's negative right on average

4232
03:28:22,066 --> 03:28:24,166
it's still supposed to be positive four

4233
03:28:24,166 --> 03:28:25,599
so it's not a

4234
03:28:26,166 --> 03:28:28,766
not a this would be minus this right

4235
03:28:28,766 --> 03:28:30,999
so this would be positive six this would be zero

4236
03:28:31,000 --> 03:28:33,066
and this would be negative six

4237
03:28:33,433 --> 03:28:35,499
so that's why they square it

4238
03:28:35,866 --> 03:28:37,766
because they don't if if we kept doing this

4239
03:28:37,766 --> 03:28:39,399
this would tend to zero

4240
03:28:40,100 --> 03:28:41,266
so by squaring it

4241
03:28:41,266 --> 03:28:43,566
we get rid of all the negatives but we still get it

4242
03:28:43,566 --> 03:28:45,266
this negative is still in there

4243
03:28:45,400 --> 03:28:46,500
it's still being taken

4244
03:28:47,000 --> 03:28:48,666
into account when we think about

4245
03:28:49,466 --> 03:28:52,999
how much that stock is veering off its average right

4246
03:28:53,266 --> 03:28:55,899
but we square it because that way

4247
03:28:55,900 --> 03:28:57,833
everything it gives us one number okay

4248
03:28:57,833 --> 03:28:59,299
and it's

4249
03:29:00,366 --> 03:29:02,066
like i said if we keep doing this forever

4250
03:29:02,433 --> 03:29:03,299
for a long long time

4251
03:29:03,300 --> 03:29:05,400
it gets zero here and that doesn't tell us anything

4252
03:29:05,633 --> 03:29:08,399
so they square it to get rid of the negatives

4253
03:29:08,433 --> 03:29:10,299
and they put the probability

4254
03:29:10,300 --> 03:29:13,100
that you're going to get that return in front of there

4255
03:29:13,700 --> 03:29:15,266
and the standard deviation well

4256
03:29:15,266 --> 03:29:16,666
they call that Sigma squared

4257
03:29:16,666 --> 03:29:18,766
so that's lowercase three letters Sigma

4258
03:29:18,766 --> 03:29:21,233
but lowercase this time so Sigma squared

4259
03:29:21,866 --> 03:29:24,566
and it's squared because it's called the vary it's how

4260
03:29:24,866 --> 03:29:28,599
see it varies around its expected return

4261
03:29:28,600 --> 03:29:30,866
which would be like its its average

4262
03:29:31,833 --> 03:29:33,633
and so how much does this thing

4263
03:29:34,100 --> 03:29:37,600
you know move against what you expected to do on average

4264
03:29:38,000 --> 03:29:40,633
and that gives you an idea of how it goes boom

4265
03:29:40,633 --> 03:29:41,833
boom up and down like this

4266
03:29:41,833 --> 03:29:45,099
so that's considered to be how risky it is

4267
03:29:45,966 --> 03:29:48,399
because people we can't unless we're talking real estate

4268
03:29:48,400 --> 03:29:49,900
we talk about square foot

4269
03:29:50,200 --> 03:29:50,800
square footage

4270
03:29:50,800 --> 03:29:53,166
or things like that we can't think in terms of square

4271
03:29:53,166 --> 03:29:54,833
money or square you know

4272
03:29:55,033 --> 03:29:56,566
so to make this

4273
03:29:57,033 --> 03:30:00,033
politable to the human brain you take the square root

4274
03:30:00,800 --> 03:30:02,066
so that you get one number

4275
03:30:02,066 --> 03:30:04,466
you're not thinking in squares you're thinking in numbers

4276
03:30:04,500 --> 03:30:05,566
and it says 10

4277
03:30:05,800 --> 03:30:08,000
or 5 or some kind of something like that

4278
03:30:08,100 --> 03:30:09,233
so something that has a

4279
03:30:09,266 --> 03:30:11,799
standard deviation of 10 is wobbling a lot more

4280
03:30:11,800 --> 03:30:14,233
than something has a standard debiation of fod

4281
03:30:14,633 --> 03:30:16,066
now what's it wobbling around

4282
03:30:16,066 --> 03:30:17,899
we'll see that in just a second

4283
03:30:19,033 --> 03:30:19,266
now

4284
03:30:19,266 --> 03:30:22,299
the other thing is a couple of really important terms the risk

4285
03:30:22,300 --> 03:30:22,900
premium

4286
03:30:22,900 --> 03:30:27,000
premium or premie i for talking about lots of difference ones

4287
03:30:27,066 --> 03:30:28,966
that's simply the difference between

4288
03:30:28,966 --> 03:30:31,866
the expected holding period return

4289
03:30:31,866 --> 03:30:34,266
and something that is risk free

4290
03:30:35,366 --> 03:30:39,166
okay so it looks at a compensation for

4291
03:30:39,266 --> 03:30:40,566
taking on wrist now

4292
03:30:40,566 --> 03:30:43,599
this is the expected return for the wrist premium

4293
03:30:44,400 --> 03:30:47,900
so what we think it is the wrist free is some asset that you can

4294
03:30:47,900 --> 03:30:50,266
buy where you don't worry about getting paid back

4295
03:30:50,266 --> 03:30:51,966
and you don't worry about the return

4296
03:30:51,966 --> 03:30:52,966
in fact you know

4297
03:30:53,866 --> 03:30:56,033
press free right

4298
03:30:56,666 --> 03:30:58,399
所以说这个就是

4299
03:31:00,666 --> 03:31:02,966
HPR减去

4300
03:31:03,033 --> 03:31:07,033
the return is when you buy the instruments so

4301
03:31:07,166 --> 03:31:08,766
there's really nothing

4302
03:31:08,866 --> 03:31:10,899
that is risk free if you want to get

4303
03:31:11,200 --> 03:31:14,400
super epistemological about it or something like that

4304
03:31:15,066 --> 03:31:15,866
but

4305
03:31:16,466 --> 03:31:20,066
in reality without getting into kind of corny discussions

4306
03:31:20,066 --> 03:31:21,233
we could have fun doing that

4307
03:31:21,233 --> 03:31:23,466
but that's not not right now anyway

4308
03:31:23,600 --> 03:31:25,033
the risk free is

4309
03:31:25,033 --> 03:31:28,299
for practical purposes is considered to be a t bill

4310
03:31:28,900 --> 03:31:29,700
okay

4311
03:31:30,666 --> 03:31:36,199
t bill is a short term bond from the government usually

4312
03:31:36,566 --> 03:31:37,966
less than a year well

4313
03:31:37,966 --> 03:31:39,999
if it's called a t bill by definition

4314
03:31:40,000 --> 03:31:42,000
it's less than a year so a short term

4315
03:31:42,100 --> 03:31:42,900
and it's a

4316
03:31:43,033 --> 03:31:45,599
from a good government like government at Canada or us

4317
03:31:45,666 --> 03:31:47,999
or written so you know you're gonna get paid back

4318
03:31:48,000 --> 03:31:50,033
this is the government it's gonna pay you back

4319
03:31:50,433 --> 03:31:53,266
okay if the United States government doesn't pay to bills

4320
03:31:53,266 --> 03:31:55,599
while we're in World War iii or something so

4321
03:31:56,033 --> 03:31:56,833
you know

4322
03:31:56,900 --> 03:31:59,800
it's there's nothing the portfolio you want is

4323
03:32:00,166 --> 03:32:03,066
you know water and gold or something that's about it

4324
03:32:03,500 --> 03:32:03,966
okay

4325
03:32:03,966 --> 03:32:07,999
so it is the interest rate you know with certainty and usually

4326
03:32:08,000 --> 03:32:09,766
that's short term t bills

4327
03:32:09,900 --> 03:32:12,800
there might be some cases where you might use the 10 year

4328
03:32:12,800 --> 03:32:14,433
but the idea is it's a

4329
03:32:14,666 --> 03:32:18,799
it's a bill or a bond a bond is just a

4330
03:32:19,366 --> 03:32:20,666
is just a government

4331
03:32:20,900 --> 03:32:21,700
instrument again

4332
03:32:21,700 --> 03:32:25,100
but impatient you know some interest or it's longer than a year

4333
03:32:25,100 --> 03:32:26,100
but it's put it that way

4334
03:32:27,633 --> 03:32:29,166
pretty much there's something in

4335
03:32:29,366 --> 03:32:31,433
there's something in the states called notes

4336
03:32:31,633 --> 03:32:34,799
but people just say bonds also say bonds okay

4337
03:32:35,600 --> 03:32:38,000
so that's the risk free now the excess

4338
03:32:38,000 --> 03:32:41,033
don't mix up the risk premium of the excess return right

4339
03:32:41,033 --> 03:32:42,433
that's the difference between the

4340
03:32:42,433 --> 03:32:45,166
actual是谁好这一口啊

4341
03:32:46,000 --> 03:32:47,266
谁好这一口

4342
03:32:50,700 --> 03:32:53,633
是真的超额的收益率

4343
03:32:53,633 --> 03:32:55,466
他这个之差

4344
03:32:56,100 --> 03:32:58,066
很适合睡觉

4345
03:32:58,066 --> 03:32:58,999
哈哈哈

4346
03:32:59,000 --> 03:33:01,600
哎呦别欺负我了

4347
03:33:01,833 --> 03:33:02,899
我也不看

4348
03:33:02,900 --> 03:33:05,400
平时聪明伶俐的夜夜

4349
03:33:05,400 --> 03:33:07,166
一句话都说不出来

4350
03:33:07,166 --> 03:33:09,433
你们的心里很爽是吧

4351
03:33:10,866 --> 03:33:13,966
从一项投资的总回报百分比来

4352
03:33:13,966 --> 03:33:17,499
减去另一项投资的总回报百分比

4353
03:33:32,866 --> 03:33:34,799
超出待遇回报

4354
03:33:34,800 --> 03:33:37,066
但你真适合写作业

4355
03:33:45,000 --> 03:33:45,800
投资

4356
03:33:45,833 --> 03:33:47,466
于无风险QQ

4357
03:33:47,666 --> 03:33:48,633
的嫦娥

4358
03:33:53,366 --> 03:33:54,799
狠狠的坐牢

4359
03:34:02,666 --> 03:34:03,466
right

4360
03:34:03,833 --> 03:34:06,766
so not what you expected that's the risk premium

4361
03:34:06,766 --> 03:34:07,966
but the actual one

4362
03:34:08,400 --> 03:34:10,400
and risk aversion well

4363
03:34:10,400 --> 03:34:11,600
that's just how you feel

4364
03:34:11,600 --> 03:34:14,100
about being exposed to your money going up and down

4365
03:34:14,866 --> 03:34:19,166
okay so it's how much risk are you willing to take on

4366
03:34:20,033 --> 03:34:22,433
so there's been a lot of studies about risk aversion

4367
03:34:22,433 --> 03:34:24,233
and most people are

4368
03:34:24,400 --> 03:34:28,600
risk adverse meaning they don't like risk okay

4369
03:34:28,966 --> 03:34:32,366
and that's pretty much ubikuous throughout the economy

4370
03:34:32,366 --> 03:34:34,599
and but it's not a hundred percent by any

4371
03:34:36,600 --> 03:34:39,000
无风险的利率

4372
03:34:39,100 --> 03:34:42,033
然后这个是那个

4373
03:34:43,966 --> 03:34:45,299
嗯嗯

4374
03:34:45,966 --> 03:34:48,599
超额的收益和

4375
03:34:49,166 --> 03:34:52,366
风险的规避程度

4376
03:34:52,500 --> 03:34:55,466
means there are people who like to take on risk

4377
03:34:56,366 --> 03:34:58,466
and those people are called risk lovers

4378
03:34:58,966 --> 03:35:01,633
and there is at least theoretically because

4379
03:35:01,700 --> 03:35:02,900
there's people that like risk

4380
03:35:02,900 --> 03:35:03,966
people that don't like risk

4381
03:35:03,966 --> 03:35:06,233
there are people that are risk neutral

4382
03:35:07,066 --> 03:35:09,166
which just means they don't care about risk

4383
03:35:09,166 --> 03:35:10,799
they just care about return

4384
03:35:11,100 --> 03:35:12,200
so if your wrist neutral

4385
03:35:12,200 --> 03:35:13,800
you don't care about the wrist you just say

4386
03:35:14,033 --> 03:35:17,033
okay i need 15 percent somebody says i get you 15 percent

4387
03:35:17,033 --> 03:35:18,666
but man it's gonna be wristy you don't care

4388
03:35:19,633 --> 03:35:21,499
somebody else says i get you 15 percent

4389
03:35:21,600 --> 03:35:23,700
but it's almost guaranteed you don't care

4390
03:35:23,700 --> 03:35:25,300
that's pretty weird right

4391
03:35:25,466 --> 03:35:26,266
but

4392
03:35:26,800 --> 03:35:31,200
we have to have that as a benchmark to say you know

4393
03:35:31,466 --> 03:35:33,999
from if there's 15 percent

4394
03:35:34,900 --> 03:35:38,166
doing account for risk or not right

4395
03:35:38,200 --> 03:35:40,700
so risk neutral is a really important concept

4396
03:35:40,900 --> 03:35:43,166
for finance for doing stuff in finance

4397
03:35:43,200 --> 03:35:44,566
but in reality

4398
03:35:45,233 --> 03:35:47,299
you know it doesn't really exist

4399
03:35:47,866 --> 03:35:51,466
to any large extent anyway i'm sure you can find it a bit but

4400
03:35:52,233 --> 03:35:54,433
it is something we need mathematic okay

4401
03:35:55,400 --> 03:35:56,900
all right so

4402
03:35:56,900 --> 03:35:58,400
we need to use historical data

4403
03:35:58,400 --> 03:36:00,433
because we don't have any other kind okay

4404
03:36:00,766 --> 03:36:02,666
so when we use historical data

4405
03:36:02,666 --> 03:36:06,799
each observation is treated as equally likely scenario

4406
03:36:06,966 --> 03:36:09,633
so it's just as likely let's sail a 50 years

4407
03:36:09,633 --> 03:36:10,466
if the stuck goes up

4408
03:36:10,466 --> 03:36:11,266
goes down remember

4409
03:36:12,066 --> 03:36:13,899
so if we allow for that

4410
03:36:14,000 --> 03:36:16,000
then the expected return

4411
03:36:16,000 --> 03:36:20,266
is nothing more than the arithmetic average of the samplings

4412
03:36:20,600 --> 03:36:23,666
that's just a fancy wave saying it's a regular old average

4413
03:36:23,900 --> 03:36:25,366
just the regular average like you do

4414
03:36:25,366 --> 03:36:26,466
for your classes

4415
03:36:26,466 --> 03:36:28,266
you just add them up you add up the five courses

4416
03:36:28,266 --> 03:36:29,799
you're taken divide by five

4417
03:36:29,866 --> 03:36:32,199
and that's exactly what they're saying make you

4418
03:36:32,500 --> 03:36:35,033
right it's the arithmetic average

4419
03:36:35,566 --> 03:36:37,599
this sight that this guy right in here

4420
03:36:37,600 --> 03:36:40,233
this inner thing that's just adding up

4421
03:36:40,400 --> 03:36:42,366
all those returns

4422
03:36:42,433 --> 03:36:45,666
for the different scenarios and dividing by the number

4423
03:36:46,433 --> 03:36:47,233
okay

4424
03:36:52,500 --> 03:36:54,166
here are

4425
03:36:56,100 --> 03:36:58,000
infantry to

4426
03:36:58,366 --> 03:36:59,499
our eyes

4427
03:37:00,300 --> 03:37:03,100
so it's just another way of writing what we saw before

4428
03:37:03,566 --> 03:37:05,233
but really what it is i mean

4429
03:37:05,666 --> 03:37:07,233
it might look a little bit

4430
03:37:08,066 --> 03:37:12,199
intimidating to if you haven't used this kind of notation before

4431
03:37:12,700 --> 03:37:14,166
right but it's just being

4432
03:37:14,166 --> 03:37:17,033
we're just kind of you know being academic and professional here

4433
03:37:17,033 --> 03:37:18,366
or pull it up a little bit

4434
03:37:18,800 --> 03:37:21,666
but all it really is is just a regular

4435
03:37:21,866 --> 03:37:23,999
it like in common speech average

4436
03:37:24,233 --> 03:37:25,033
okay

4437
03:37:25,166 --> 03:37:27,766
now that's an important one

4438
03:37:27,900 --> 03:37:29,100
but be careful

4439
03:37:29,166 --> 03:37:29,966
because really

4440
03:37:29,966 --> 03:37:34,266
this is not one that we use a lot in everyday portfolio

4441
03:37:35,433 --> 03:37:37,033
you know speak as it were

4442
03:37:37,833 --> 03:37:40,799
because this one is

4443
03:37:41,033 --> 03:37:43,833
the what if you had a like if you had a hat

4444
03:37:43,833 --> 03:37:46,599
and you had all the returns historical returns

4445
03:37:46,700 --> 03:37:49,066
you're stuck in a hat the one that most

4446
03:37:49,066 --> 03:37:51,199
likely to get if you're pulled out

4447
03:37:51,233 --> 03:37:52,033
you

4448
03:37:52,500 --> 03:37:53,166
啊

4449
03:37:53,166 --> 03:37:56,433
怎么了i'm at c d j

4450
03:38:02,600 --> 03:38:03,800
怎么回事

4451
03:38:08,766 --> 03:38:10,199
加油聪明一下吗

4452
03:38:10,200 --> 03:38:11,900
哈哈哈

4453
03:38:12,166 --> 03:38:15,099
你会不会是在问号香草的大漠啊

4454
03:38:15,766 --> 03:38:18,466
历史回报率的算数平均是

4455
03:38:19,500 --> 03:38:22,966
you know a particular year looked at it would be this

4456
03:38:23,600 --> 03:38:26,633
that's all it's saying it's the most likely one that happens

4457
03:38:27,600 --> 03:38:28,400
okay

4458
03:38:30,233 --> 03:38:33,266
the most important one is called the geometric

4459
03:38:33,466 --> 03:38:35,099
this is a geometric where

4460
03:38:35,366 --> 03:38:38,666
you take the measure of performance okay

4461
03:38:39,166 --> 03:38:41,699
over a number of years you're talking about

4462
03:38:42,233 --> 03:38:45,266
and it tells you if you if this was a fifty year

4463
03:38:45,266 --> 03:38:48,499
period it would tell you that if you started

4464
03:38:48,800 --> 03:38:51,766
这怎么还有还有他写的这个

4465
03:38:52,200 --> 03:38:56,866
careful hair notice the starting value我弯到了

4466
03:38:58,866 --> 03:38:59,866
我不用careful

4467
03:38:59,866 --> 03:39:01,033
我也听不懂啊

4468
03:39:03,233 --> 03:39:07,399
坏坏你打鼓打鼓啊打鼓打鼓

4469
03:39:19,233 --> 03:39:21,999
什么时候能变成无敌小money

4470
03:39:24,066 --> 03:39:28,799
样本期间技巧衡量的标准是

4471
03:39:38,166 --> 03:39:40,866
这里指的是因为歧视

4472
03:39:40,966 --> 03:39:41,766
一

4473
03:39:41,900 --> 03:39:45,400
他在该期间将复合到

4474
03:39:45,400 --> 03:39:49,166
时间系列中的实际回报系列

4475
03:39:49,400 --> 03:39:52,300
我们假设一个g作为平均

4476
03:39:54,600 --> 03:39:56,966
老师救救我吧

4477
03:40:03,433 --> 03:40:08,666
然后用一加g的n次方

4478
03:40:18,400 --> 03:40:21,433
最终得到的那个收益数字

4479
03:40:30,600 --> 03:40:33,900
我也看不懂我这不知道是在给我讲

4480
03:40:33,966 --> 03:40:34,766
你可以

4481
03:40:34,800 --> 03:40:37,233
所以说如果给出了最终的收益

4482
03:40:37,233 --> 03:40:41,866
我就可以从这个中提出来这个g对吧

4483
03:40:44,366 --> 03:40:46,833
就可以用这个式子反退回

4484
03:40:46,833 --> 03:40:49,633
如果我知道这个车名都歪6的话

4485
03:40:49,633 --> 03:40:50,666
我就可以

4486
03:40:50,866 --> 03:40:52,366
我就可以那个

4487
03:40:53,033 --> 03:40:57,599
就是反推出来这个这个平均的这个g

4488
03:41:00,066 --> 03:41:02,033
但是我在哐当哐当

4489
03:41:03,566 --> 03:41:06,799
所以他其实是用来算这个g的对吧

4490
03:41:06,800 --> 03:41:12,400
他嗯不知道老师这嗯应该会会给的吧

4491
03:41:14,200 --> 03:41:15,466
看一下这个

4492
03:41:24,833 --> 03:41:26,866
是a m是什么

4493
03:41:28,266 --> 03:41:31,699
n知道的n应该会给吧这什么来着

4494
03:41:46,166 --> 03:41:50,366
N N Y 6 n圈D y了1.20

4495
03:41:50,366 --> 03:41:51,233
这是我

4496
03:41:54,033 --> 03:41:58,699
就是0.150.20减去0.20/3

4497
03:41:59,266 --> 03:42:02,466
月平均嗯就是36

4498
03:42:07,566 --> 03:42:11,366
关键我有点搞不明白这个AMGM的什么

4499
03:42:12,200 --> 03:42:14,566
让我狠狠的

4500
03:42:14,566 --> 03:42:16,366
主要这些缩写

4501
03:42:16,400 --> 03:42:19,900
我就得对好长时间这些缩写

4502
03:42:20,300 --> 03:42:22,100
算数平均起来

4503
03:42:23,566 --> 03:42:25,433
我是真真搞不明白

4504
03:42:25,433 --> 03:42:27,466
这些缩写都在缩写什么

4505
03:42:27,466 --> 03:42:28,866
就要记好久

4506
03:42:32,700 --> 03:42:36,000
我就得记得这个是这个啊那个是那个

4507
03:42:37,200 --> 03:42:40,433
这可能就是就不太适合

4508
03:42:40,833 --> 03:42:44,766
不太适合学这种科目的一个一个

4509
03:42:45,433 --> 03:42:47,099
象征吧我觉得

4510
03:42:48,700 --> 03:42:49,500
哈

4511
03:42:49,966 --> 03:42:51,366
哒哒哒哒哒

4512
03:42:51,366 --> 03:42:54,566
这个是n分之一然后减一

4513
03:42:54,566 --> 03:42:56,433
就是相当于是这个呗

4514
03:42:56,433 --> 03:42:58,866
这个这个GM就是这个g

4515
03:42:59,466 --> 03:43:00,266
对吧

4516
03:43:01,100 --> 03:43:03,300
好久没给人家的声音不要了

4517
03:43:03,300 --> 03:43:04,300
那是因为平常

4518
03:43:04,300 --> 03:43:06,766
给你们直播的时候我都很开心

4519
03:43:06,833 --> 03:43:09,966
现在在学习一学习就很难过

4520
03:43:13,233 --> 03:43:13,866
哎呀

4521
03:43:13,866 --> 03:43:15,199
我在学习

4522
03:43:16,000 --> 03:43:17,233
这个GM

4523
03:43:18,200 --> 03:43:20,833
就是按用这个g来

4524
03:43:21,066 --> 03:43:22,033
老师默认

4525
03:43:22,033 --> 03:43:25,266
对呀老师默认你知道符号的意思

4526
03:43:25,266 --> 03:43:27,433
但是这一个式子我什么都不会

4527
03:43:27,433 --> 03:43:29,266
我不会符号的意思

4528
03:43:30,066 --> 03:43:32,633
你要每个符号都给我标出来啥意思

4529
03:43:32,633 --> 03:43:34,499
我能学快一倍你知道吧

4530
03:43:34,500 --> 03:43:36,600
但我就就一直在猜

4531
03:43:36,600 --> 03:43:38,766
在想这些符号都是啥意思呀

4532
03:43:38,766 --> 03:43:39,899
啥意思呀

4533
03:43:42,566 --> 03:43:46,266
对就这个嗯嗯嗯对这这个g嗯嗯嗯

4534
03:43:46,266 --> 03:43:48,066
啊对对对啊不对不对不对

4535
03:43:48,066 --> 03:43:49,099
这个就是这个

4536
03:43:49,100 --> 03:43:51,466
这个terminal Y6就是这几个

4537
03:43:52,200 --> 03:43:55,200
这几个那个什么除以n分之一

4538
03:43:55,200 --> 03:43:56,700
那为啥相乘呢

4539
03:43:57,766 --> 03:43:58,666
好没问题

4540
03:43:59,033 --> 03:44:00,199
好beautiful

4541
03:44:02,500 --> 03:44:04,866
不要折磨我啦

4542
03:44:10,433 --> 03:44:12,499
所以为什么这个这个

4543
03:44:12,500 --> 03:44:16,266
这个Terminal Y6是他们三个乘起来啊

4544
03:44:16,266 --> 03:44:19,866
是这这三个HPR乘起来啊

4545
03:44:20,700 --> 03:44:22,366
老师老师

4546
03:44:22,433 --> 03:44:23,566
你能不能告诉我

4547
03:44:23,566 --> 03:44:26,766
为什么那个侧面的歪楼是这个三个HPR

4548
03:44:26,766 --> 03:44:29,266
相乘好呀好呀老师

4549
03:44:30,100 --> 03:44:31,400
救救我

4550
03:44:31,400 --> 03:44:32,200
吧

4551
03:44:35,866 --> 03:44:37,966
HPR是收益比例

4552
03:44:38,233 --> 03:44:39,633
嗯我知道

4553
03:44:39,800 --> 03:44:42,166
我知道这个我知道

4554
03:44:47,600 --> 03:44:50,666
就是相对于一年来说

4555
03:45:03,166 --> 03:45:07,499
最终的外热比上骑士的等于P R O

4556
03:45:08,900 --> 03:45:10,300
对这个我是知道

4557
03:45:10,800 --> 03:45:13,600
但是我不知道这个他盛起来之后

4558
03:45:13,600 --> 03:45:15,400
为什么就是这个了

4559
03:45:19,866 --> 03:45:23,199
那么把所有的HPR盛起来

4560
03:45:41,000 --> 03:45:42,500
撑起来之后呢

4561
03:45:49,466 --> 03:45:54,366
就是后三年后的比上其实的

4562
03:46:08,666 --> 03:46:11,499
啊我好像明白了

4563
03:46:16,100 --> 03:46:19,700
所以其实不是这3个一定要重启的

4564
03:46:19,700 --> 03:46:21,633
我也可以直接看这个

4565
03:46:22,033 --> 03:46:24,399
第一年的这个比格尼Y6

4566
03:46:24,400 --> 03:46:26,900
跟第三年收尾的这个安尼Y6

4567
03:46:26,900 --> 03:46:31,900
直接拿这个110.40然后除这个

4568
03:46:31,900 --> 03:46:34,566
这个100也是一样的效果对吗

4569
03:46:39,100 --> 03:46:41,200
每一年多出的那就是

4570
03:46:42,266 --> 03:46:46,699
的n分之一次方就是1/3层

4571
03:46:46,700 --> 03:46:47,666
一些题不会给我

4572
03:46:47,666 --> 03:46:50,366
那就是要我自己来算知道吧

4573
03:46:50,366 --> 03:46:53,266
就就把这些告诉我了之后

4574
03:46:53,266 --> 03:46:54,833
就把这些空挖掉

4575
03:46:54,833 --> 03:46:56,166
比如说就把这个删了

4576
03:46:56,166 --> 03:46:59,166
然后让我自己去算这些填空填进去

4577
03:46:59,166 --> 03:46:59,966
对吧

4578
03:47:00,433 --> 03:47:03,599
这个HPR我应该把这个记一下

4579
03:47:03,800 --> 03:47:05,633
对有时候只有HPR

4580
03:47:06,200 --> 03:47:09,066
那就是把这三个重一下

4581
03:47:11,633 --> 03:47:12,566
要是我的话

4582
03:47:12,566 --> 03:47:15,466
我可能会拿HPR先算第一年的安定

4583
03:47:15,466 --> 03:47:17,366
然后再算第二年的安定

4584
03:47:17,366 --> 03:47:18,999
再算第三年的安定

4585
03:47:19,833 --> 03:47:23,033
所以说我是一个很笨的人嗯

4586
03:47:26,566 --> 03:47:31,266
啊这这这样这样就明白了我就明白了

4587
03:47:31,266 --> 03:47:32,066
嗯

4588
03:47:41,033 --> 03:47:42,899
我还得买个计算器去

4589
03:47:42,900 --> 03:47:44,400
要不然不让带手机

4590
03:47:44,400 --> 03:47:47,700
现在用不了这个这个不是我们要的

4591
03:47:49,400 --> 03:47:52,033
他还要再减掉那个一

4592
03:47:52,366 --> 03:47:53,633
嗯我知道了

4593
03:47:59,900 --> 03:48:00,800
with

4594
03:48:01,466 --> 03:48:03,033
hundred dollars here

4595
03:48:03,366 --> 03:48:04,999
and you ended up with

4596
03:48:05,900 --> 03:48:10,066
ten one two three ten thousand here okay

4597
03:48:10,766 --> 03:48:13,066
what would be the rate

4598
03:48:13,233 --> 03:48:14,066
in each of

4599
03:48:14,066 --> 03:48:17,866
these and years so let's say that was fifteen years

4600
03:48:18,300 --> 03:48:19,166
so what would be

4601
03:48:19,166 --> 03:48:22,166
the rate in each of those fifteen years that would be

4602
03:48:22,166 --> 03:48:23,766
他出了个天

4603
03:48:23,766 --> 03:48:26,066
然后如果这个这个

4604
03:48:27,000 --> 03:48:30,866
n等于15然后这个村的Y6是1万

4605
03:48:31,100 --> 03:48:34,066
这是100这这这写的是个啥题啊

4606
03:48:34,633 --> 03:48:36,166
now in those fifteen years

4607
03:48:36,166 --> 03:48:37,866
the stock market could have been way up

4608
03:48:37,866 --> 03:48:38,999
could have been way down

4609
03:48:39,000 --> 03:48:41,366
could have been sort of in between that way up again

4610
03:48:41,366 --> 03:48:42,399
way down again

4611
03:48:42,700 --> 03:48:44,500
or could have been whatever

4612
03:48:44,500 --> 03:48:47,433
so in any of the stock markets going to look like this

4613
03:48:47,666 --> 03:48:49,499
what this is doing notice is saying

4614
03:48:49,666 --> 03:48:51,833
imagine that this was like a bank account

4615
03:48:51,833 --> 03:48:53,033
where you could put a thou

4616
03:48:53,033 --> 03:48:54,999
a hundred bucks into a bank account

4617
03:48:55,000 --> 03:48:57,633
the bank tells you we're going to pay you a certain amount

4618
03:48:57,766 --> 03:49:00,866
and you just let it compound up for fifteen years

4619
03:49:00,866 --> 03:49:03,599
so it's like it's look as if it's paying

4620
03:49:03,766 --> 03:49:06,499
我们这边人都是很厉害很厉害的

4621
03:49:06,866 --> 03:49:08,633
比主播有用多了

4622
03:49:09,000 --> 03:49:12,000
this is really important because this is the way

4623
03:49:12,633 --> 03:49:17,233
that your mutual funds and that sort of stuff are actually

4624
03:49:17,900 --> 03:49:21,300
are actually important so if i go to

4625
03:49:22,800 --> 03:49:26,100
you know let me just go here to the internet for a second

4626
03:49:33,266 --> 03:49:34,233
i'll just say

4627
03:49:34,233 --> 03:49:34,866
i don't know

4628
03:49:34,866 --> 03:49:37,899
他怎么现场上火壶上去收东西啊

4629
03:49:38,400 --> 03:49:41,033
他怎么边抢客边去火壶收东西啊

4630
03:49:41,033 --> 03:49:42,166
咋鼓咋鼓

4631
03:49:48,900 --> 03:49:50,366
okay so TV wealth

4632
03:49:52,266 --> 03:49:55,433
we used to invest in this name

4633
03:49:57,033 --> 03:49:58,833
他现场去点了那个

4634
03:49:59,166 --> 03:50:01,233
霹雳半个的一个什么什么

4635
03:50:02,033 --> 03:50:03,399
so i don't know

4636
03:50:03,700 --> 03:50:04,500
should have

4637
03:50:05,900 --> 03:50:09,500
布伦老师是真的爱你爱你

4638
03:50:10,166 --> 03:50:13,033
永远爱你哈哈

4639
03:50:13,033 --> 03:50:15,999
好太巧了永远爱你

4640
03:50:20,766 --> 03:50:22,566
干啥呢快进一下

4641
03:50:23,633 --> 03:50:24,433
were probably

4642
03:50:24,833 --> 03:50:26,633
okay so here's a series f

4643
03:50:26,800 --> 03:50:29,366
and i don't know let's just pick one here let's take

4644
03:50:30,200 --> 03:50:35,066
let's take well i want one with a little bit more okay

4645
03:50:35,066 --> 03:50:35,699
here we here oh

4646
03:50:35,700 --> 03:50:39,000
that's a bond you know what bonds do we know not for this

4647
03:50:39,866 --> 03:50:41,366
okay give me a neckery one

4648
03:50:42,500 --> 03:50:43,300
yeah

4649
03:50:44,366 --> 03:50:47,199
okay i'll take this one i don't even know what it is it's

4650
03:50:48,100 --> 03:50:49,233
okay that's good enough

4651
03:50:49,566 --> 03:50:52,199
okay so this is a global growth in income okay

4652
03:50:52,200 --> 03:50:54,033
so this is like a typical portfolio

4653
03:50:54,033 --> 03:50:55,966
that someone would actually have

4654
03:50:56,766 --> 03:50:58,199
and this is what i want to show you here

4655
03:50:58,200 --> 03:51:00,700
see where it says performance so we go to performance right

4656
03:51:00,700 --> 03:51:02,400
what are the first thing that comes up

4657
03:51:02,766 --> 03:51:07,233
this training returns so what does this thing mean in here

4658
03:51:07,900 --> 03:51:09,966
okay that's what we're talking about

4659
03:51:10,233 --> 03:51:11,766
so what they're saying here

4660
03:51:11,833 --> 03:51:16,366
is if i had held this portfolio bought this mutual fun

4661
03:51:16,366 --> 03:51:17,699
which is a portfolio right

4662
03:51:17,700 --> 03:51:18,600
we can look at

4663
03:51:19,300 --> 03:51:22,033
we can see what's in it maybe a little bit later

4664
03:51:22,066 --> 03:51:24,999
i would have made over the last five years

4665
03:51:25,200 --> 03:51:28,166
没有我收到了一条这个

4666
03:51:28,166 --> 03:51:32,033
在英国留学的朋友的这个QQ

4667
03:51:32,866 --> 03:51:36,266
然后他半夜的时候发给我一个

4668
03:51:36,266 --> 03:51:37,266
说发现

4669
03:51:37,266 --> 03:51:38,299
你们学的跟

4670
03:51:38,300 --> 03:51:40,566
我们目前学的还是有些地方

4671
03:51:40,566 --> 03:51:41,633
不一样的

4672
03:51:41,833 --> 03:51:42,633
哈哈

4673
03:51:43,033 --> 03:51:45,266
我操你你在看我直播

4674
03:52:03,833 --> 03:52:05,699
欢迎我是我

4675
03:52:05,700 --> 03:52:06,800
没睡着

4676
03:52:07,900 --> 03:52:10,833
我刚被朋友狠狠嘲笑了家人

4677
03:52:11,566 --> 03:52:14,099
percent a year now i didn't actually make ten

4678
03:52:14,366 --> 03:52:15,366
sucker percent a year

4679
03:52:15,366 --> 03:52:16,366
look at this

4680
03:52:16,400 --> 03:52:18,966
one two three four five

4681
03:52:19,633 --> 03:52:22,099
there's actually six here okay

4682
03:52:22,433 --> 03:52:25,499
so this is pretty up to date because it's got the year to data

4683
03:52:25,766 --> 03:52:27,599
哇他们刚考完这个

4684
03:52:27,833 --> 03:52:28,466
快来救我

4685
03:52:28,466 --> 03:52:30,899
this looks like it was done it towards the end

4686
03:52:30,900 --> 03:52:32,066
快教教我

4687
03:52:32,433 --> 03:52:34,033
yeah towards the end in November

4688
03:52:34,033 --> 03:52:34,999
我要记了

4689
03:52:35,000 --> 03:52:41,033
see the thing yes look at 2019 was way up 2017 was okay

4690
03:52:41,300 --> 03:52:45,000
2008 though or 2018 rather sorry was negative

4691
03:52:45,300 --> 03:52:47,000
and this was kind of low

4692
03:52:47,433 --> 03:52:50,633
right so they're not all 10.5 percent

4693
03:52:51,233 --> 03:52:56,999
but it's as if they were because what we could what we could do

4694
03:52:58,400 --> 03:53:01,466
is we could look at this and say you know

4695
03:53:01,466 --> 03:53:03,466
if i had taken a certain amount of money

4696
03:53:03,466 --> 03:53:04,099
平均收益比例

4697
03:53:04,100 --> 03:53:05,300
你们说的是啥

4698
03:53:05,366 --> 03:53:08,099
and i had put it in this fun

4699
03:53:08,566 --> 03:53:11,499
okay how much would i have made i would have made

4700
03:53:11,566 --> 03:53:12,499
不是不是我的

4701
03:53:12,600 --> 03:53:13,400
朋友

4702
03:53:13,500 --> 03:53:15,666
我的朋友不是我的神器

4703
03:53:15,766 --> 03:53:17,599
so in here we got a bunch of fixed income

4704
03:53:17,600 --> 03:53:19,866
Canadian equity this is a typical sort of

4705
03:53:20,166 --> 03:53:22,499
balance fun typical portfolio

4706
03:53:22,900 --> 03:53:25,033
you know that people would actually have

4707
03:53:25,900 --> 03:53:29,266
so in that performance right we see the calendar year

4708
03:53:30,066 --> 03:53:32,999
and we see of course the trailing here okay

4709
03:53:33,966 --> 03:53:38,266
the returns so these things here我不想看他拿a

4710
03:53:38,266 --> 03:53:39,766
b c的例子来举了

4711
03:53:39,766 --> 03:53:41,799
我想听他讲题

4712
03:53:41,900 --> 03:53:44,033
我想往前翻一点

4713
03:53:44,033 --> 03:53:44,833
在这so

4714
03:53:44,833 --> 03:53:46,766
just to show you the difference here we have year one two

4715
03:53:46,766 --> 03:53:48,166
three we have the beginning

4716
03:53:48,166 --> 03:53:50,366
balance we have the ending balance we have the holding

4717
03:53:50,366 --> 03:53:51,066
period return

4718
03:53:51,066 --> 03:53:52,399
which you can see in

4719
03:53:52,466 --> 03:53:54,066
percent 1.5

4720
03:53:54,866 --> 03:53:56,433
the holding period return

4721
03:53:57,200 --> 03:54:00,233
holding period yield is just the return

4722
03:54:00,600 --> 03:54:03,233
okay in percentage terms that's all

4723
03:54:04,100 --> 03:54:07,566
so the arithmetic mean would be 15 percent

4724
03:54:07,766 --> 03:54:11,466
20 percent and negative 20 percent divided by three

4725
03:54:11,466 --> 03:54:14,399
which would give us 5 percent okay

4726
03:54:15,200 --> 03:54:16,833
and if we did it with

4727
03:54:16,966 --> 03:54:18,233
geometric or what you do

4728
03:54:18,233 --> 03:54:20,866
is you use the gross the holding period return

4729
03:54:21,400 --> 03:54:24,200
the grocerator return times

4730
03:54:25,066 --> 03:54:27,699
and of course this one would be you add one

4731
03:54:27,700 --> 03:54:29,066
but this is negative don't forget

4732
03:54:29,066 --> 03:54:32,166
so it's going to be point eight this is the yield okay

4733
03:54:33,466 --> 03:54:35,466
minus one and it's three

4734
03:54:35,500 --> 03:54:38,600
this thing would compound up at a little over three percent

4735
03:54:38,600 --> 03:54:41,833
even though the average is

4736
03:54:42,266 --> 03:54:44,366
five percent okay

4737
03:54:44,700 --> 03:54:47,433
so if the distribution is normal

4738
03:54:47,433 --> 03:54:49,699
so in other words if our returns and a lot of it

4739
03:54:49,700 --> 03:54:50,500
what we work with

4740
03:54:50,500 --> 03:54:50,833
and this

4741
03:54:50,833 --> 03:54:54,266
course is normal distributions as does the industry over time so

4742
03:54:54,666 --> 03:54:57,766
他这进展的好快呀

4743
03:54:59,033 --> 03:55:00,866
啊呀呀呀呀

4744
03:55:01,566 --> 03:55:02,699
呀呀

4745
03:55:04,633 --> 03:55:05,833
呀这是钢板

4746
03:55:05,833 --> 03:55:08,566
这不是全世界都知道的事情了吗

4747
03:55:10,000 --> 03:55:13,000
如果吩咐正常你也得赶紧日语问问

4748
03:55:13,000 --> 03:55:14,300
令人感叹哈

4749
03:55:14,600 --> 03:55:15,000
哈哈

4750
03:55:15,000 --> 03:55:16,100
令人感叹

4751
03:55:20,166 --> 03:55:21,599
哎哎

4752
03:55:22,600 --> 03:55:23,666
让人怀疑

4753
03:55:23,966 --> 03:55:25,666
我怀疑我自己是个智障

4754
03:55:25,666 --> 03:55:29,966
this picture of it a minute then if you know the variance

4755
03:55:31,100 --> 03:55:33,900
they often give you the variants then you the easy

4756
03:55:33,900 --> 03:55:34,566
way to figure out

4757
03:55:34,566 --> 03:55:37,366
the geometric mean is you just take the arithmetic finest

4758
03:55:37,366 --> 03:55:38,633
one half the variants

4759
03:55:38,800 --> 03:55:40,666
and use decimal values if you do this

4760
03:55:40,666 --> 03:55:42,066
this is just a little trick

4761
03:55:42,400 --> 03:55:44,166
that sometimes is handy to know

4762
03:55:45,033 --> 03:55:47,433
okay so the variants again

4763
03:55:47,566 --> 03:55:50,499
remember is just now this is just a bit of a different moment

4764
03:55:50,500 --> 03:55:52,800
clature that is that return

4765
03:55:53,200 --> 03:55:54,600
好麻烦啊

4766
03:55:54,600 --> 03:55:56,866
我我一看到这种柿子

4767
03:55:56,866 --> 03:56:00,366
我我的脑子里就什么都不剩了

4768
03:56:01,766 --> 03:56:03,899
我真的我一看到这种柿子

4769
03:56:03,900 --> 03:56:07,633
我的脑子里就什么都没有了

4770
03:56:08,866 --> 03:56:10,466
我好害怕

4771
03:56:19,000 --> 03:56:20,400
这是柿子啊

4772
03:56:20,400 --> 03:56:23,800
这种柿子你们看着不觉得挺吓人的

4773
03:56:30,266 --> 03:56:32,033
我觉得找一只外国猫来

4774
03:56:32,033 --> 03:56:33,766
应该都比我聪明

4775
03:56:37,900 --> 03:56:41,900
我知道是方差但是我真的看不懂

4776
03:56:46,966 --> 03:56:50,299
可以在旁边开个记事本我其实开了

4777
03:56:50,300 --> 03:56:52,900
但你们看不到我开了

4778
03:56:55,466 --> 03:56:57,766
我在另一个网页上看着

4779
03:56:58,366 --> 03:57:00,866
就我只能偷这一个网页

4780
03:57:01,033 --> 03:57:04,066
但是你们你们是看不到另一个网页的

4781
03:57:08,766 --> 03:57:10,399
点复制粘贴过去

4782
03:57:10,400 --> 03:57:12,666
直接进行一个狠狠的复制粘贴

4783
03:57:12,666 --> 03:57:14,699
然后背上写一下意思

4784
03:57:31,166 --> 03:57:33,366
当初为什么要学着专业折磨自己

4785
03:57:33,366 --> 03:57:35,466
我为什么要出国折磨自己呢

4786
03:57:37,000 --> 03:57:40,366
为什么要出国折磨自己呀

4787
03:57:41,833 --> 03:57:42,899
咯咯咯咯

4788
03:57:44,566 --> 03:57:45,366
哎

4789
03:57:46,033 --> 03:57:48,766
我们还有20分钟这堂课上完

4790
03:57:48,766 --> 03:57:49,966
上完这堂课

4791
03:57:49,966 --> 03:57:52,466
主播就要狠狠的进行一个休息

4792
03:57:53,400 --> 03:57:54,833
虽然啥也没搞明白

4793
03:57:54,833 --> 03:57:56,499
先进行一个狠狠的休息

4794
03:57:56,500 --> 03:57:57,466
reach return

4795
03:57:58,600 --> 03:58:01,433
okay that's the average expected return

4796
03:58:01,566 --> 03:58:03,866
that's the return of each data point

4797
03:58:03,866 --> 03:58:06,466
so this is the difference between it square them

4798
03:58:07,100 --> 03:58:10,700
okay divide by the number in the data set you get the variance

4799
03:58:10,700 --> 03:58:12,066
take the square root of that

4800
03:58:12,166 --> 03:58:13,633
so you just take the square root of this

4801
03:58:13,700 --> 03:58:15,966
and that's your standard deviation and that is

4802
03:58:15,966 --> 03:58:16,833
going to tell you

4803
03:58:17,500 --> 03:58:19,066
how much risk that you

4804
03:58:19,200 --> 03:58:21,966
have because it tells you how the thing wobbles around

4805
03:58:22,666 --> 03:58:24,399
so what's really important them

4806
03:58:24,400 --> 03:58:26,966
as an investment person is to say

4807
03:58:27,600 --> 03:58:32,066
how much am i getting for each unit of risks and i'm taking

4808
03:58:32,766 --> 03:58:33,166
so

4809
03:58:33,166 --> 03:58:37,166
that's what we call the sharperation you take the risp premium

4810
03:58:37,166 --> 03:58:39,299
now you take what you're getting

4811
03:58:39,600 --> 03:58:41,300
what you expect to get

4812
03:58:41,600 --> 03:58:43,366
对上完了完全没

4813
03:58:44,166 --> 03:58:45,599
还能这个暂停了

4814
03:58:45,600 --> 03:58:46,400
我难以想象

4815
03:58:46,966 --> 03:58:47,799
之后我会在意

4816
03:58:47,800 --> 03:58:50,866
you take the standard deviation of those等一会吧

4817
03:58:50,866 --> 03:58:51,766
我先

4818
03:58:52,866 --> 03:58:56,799
先先让谷歌教教我然后再听他说话

4819
03:58:57,433 --> 03:58:59,199
我先让谷歌教我吧

4820
03:59:01,466 --> 03:59:02,966
下谱比例

4821
03:59:05,300 --> 03:59:09,066
只是不进脑子呀呀呀呀呀

4822
03:59:11,300 --> 03:59:12,833
大于1.0的下伏

4823
03:59:12,833 --> 03:59:14,833
比例被投资者认为是可以接受的

4824
03:59:14,833 --> 03:59:16,833
他高于2.0的是非常好

4825
03:59:16,833 --> 03:59:18,499
3.0是极好的

4826
03:59:18,500 --> 03:59:20,200
0.5说明不太行

4827
03:59:20,900 --> 03:59:24,233
SAF比例高于0.5是市场领先的表现

4828
03:59:24,233 --> 03:59:27,833
为0.5的话0.2-0.3与大盘一致

4829
03:59:28,433 --> 03:59:30,599
低于1.0是不好的

4830
03:59:30,633 --> 03:59:32,233
这说法怎么不一样呢

4831
03:59:34,266 --> 03:59:37,033
基金的回报率就更高

4832
03:59:37,033 --> 03:59:39,899
面向搜索引擎的新型学习模式

4833
03:59:40,566 --> 03:59:44,199
哎你们你们在学习的时候你们没有

4834
03:59:44,200 --> 03:59:46,500
没有人用过搜索引擎吗

4835
03:59:46,500 --> 03:59:48,600
没有人借助搜索引擎学习吗

4836
03:59:50,033 --> 03:59:52,899
因为没有人没事就酷狗一下

4837
03:59:52,900 --> 03:59:55,033
没事就那什么一下子吗

4838
03:59:55,033 --> 03:59:58,033
我不信我不信你们不酷狗我不信

4839
04:00:01,366 --> 04:00:05,233
不是只有我才会干这种笨蛋的事情

4840
04:00:05,233 --> 04:00:06,066
对吧

4841
04:00:14,300 --> 04:00:14,966
yes

4842
04:00:14,966 --> 04:00:16,166
as we turn to being

4843
04:00:16,166 --> 04:00:18,166
the standard deviation of what the thing really

4844
04:00:20,300 --> 04:00:22,766
you know you look at what what you actually got

4845
04:00:22,833 --> 04:00:28,166
12-2 i比上这个SD你一般同学一下

4846
04:00:28,166 --> 04:00:29,699
我没有同学

4847
04:00:30,000 --> 04:00:30,900
哈哈哈

4848
04:00:31,566 --> 04:00:32,833
我没有同学

4849
04:00:32,833 --> 04:00:34,033
我连同学都没有

4850
04:00:34,033 --> 04:00:36,033
家人们我连课友都没有

4851
04:00:36,033 --> 04:00:38,433
这不是线下课不认识人

4852
04:00:39,166 --> 04:00:41,766
没人没有熟悉的人是这样的

4853
04:00:46,833 --> 04:00:49,899
对看完教授了他也在b站再听一次

4854
04:00:59,066 --> 04:01:00,999
我的室友当时都挺厉害的

4855
04:01:01,000 --> 04:01:02,033
我觉得他们都挺

4856
04:01:02,066 --> 04:01:03,466
that standard deviation

4857
04:01:03,600 --> 04:01:05,466
and this is telling you what this is你

4858
04:01:05,466 --> 04:01:06,866
你说明你搜索引擎不对

4859
04:01:06,866 --> 04:01:08,599
你不上那什么UC浏览器

4860
04:01:08,600 --> 04:01:10,400
百度里你能搜索啥呀

4861
04:01:10,400 --> 04:01:13,666
你上那UC百度里你还指望自己搜索啥

4862
04:01:13,666 --> 04:01:16,166
你不是狠狠的去去那个

4863
04:01:16,266 --> 04:01:18,366
去找点正经的搜索引擎

4864
04:01:18,366 --> 04:01:19,399
对我是大学呀

4865
04:01:19,400 --> 04:01:20,700
how much you're getting

4866
04:01:21,666 --> 04:01:23,199
哎我的腰好痛

4867
04:01:23,200 --> 04:01:25,400
risk so this is really important

4868
04:01:25,433 --> 04:01:27,466
because if i make 50 percent on a stuck

4869
04:01:27,866 --> 04:01:31,099
the thing was really risky so let's say it had a risk premium of

4870
04:01:31,466 --> 04:01:32,999
a standard idiation of 10

4871
04:01:33,200 --> 04:01:35,166
this is getting five i'm getting

4872
04:01:35,266 --> 04:01:38,633
i'm getting five units of return for each unit of risk

4873
04:01:39,100 --> 04:01:42,000
but i'm taking quite a lot of risk but if i get

4874
04:01:42,066 --> 04:01:44,799
fine都不是学的同一个专业

4875
04:01:45,166 --> 04:01:46,999
不同的翘翘奖类不一样

4876
04:01:47,100 --> 04:01:49,866
我们学的东西都不一样年纪都不一样

4877
04:01:49,866 --> 04:01:50,666
我咋问呢

4878
04:01:50,666 --> 04:01:51,866
this is still five

4879
04:01:52,166 --> 04:01:54,066
我有个是有数学系的

4880
04:01:54,066 --> 04:01:56,599
还有个那个学学别的的

4881
04:01:56,966 --> 04:01:58,699
然后有个学经济的

4882
04:01:58,866 --> 04:01:59,999
一个学金融的

4883
04:02:00,000 --> 04:02:02,066
那个学经济的还比我大一年

4884
04:02:02,400 --> 04:02:04,566
now i'm still making a lot more money here

4885
04:02:04,566 --> 04:02:06,566
but i'm taking a lot more risk how much

4886
04:02:06,600 --> 04:02:07,833
i'm getting for how much risk

4887
04:02:07,833 --> 04:02:10,299
i'm taking on so depending on the way you look

4888
04:02:10,300 --> 04:02:11,800
一个专业的主播

4889
04:02:11,866 --> 04:02:15,399
你教教我吧你教教我吧

4890
04:02:17,500 --> 04:02:20,100
我再不学习我要洗了

4891
04:02:20,700 --> 04:02:22,500
教教我吧

4892
04:02:24,000 --> 04:02:25,833
我唱我老师来了

4893
04:02:26,066 --> 04:02:27,199
进行一个两眼一亮啊

4894
04:02:27,200 --> 04:02:30,100
this is a better stock for me i don't even though that

4895
04:02:30,166 --> 04:02:31,899
even though i get fifty percent here

4896
04:02:31,900 --> 04:02:32,666
i don't want it

4897
04:02:32,666 --> 04:02:35,199
because i don't want to take ten times more risk

4898
04:02:36,166 --> 04:02:36,966
okay

4899
04:02:37,966 --> 04:02:40,299
so and don't forget that the risk

4900
04:02:40,400 --> 04:02:43,966
this return might be just because i hit it lucky that one time

4901
04:02:45,700 --> 04:02:47,366
so a lot to think in here this is just

4902
04:02:47,633 --> 04:02:48,299
a measure

4903
04:02:48,300 --> 04:02:50,266
but this is a ubiquous measure in

4904
04:02:50,300 --> 04:02:52,833
a whole industry this idea of the sharp ratio

4905
04:02:53,266 --> 04:02:54,399
kind of it comes from of course

4906
04:02:54,400 --> 04:02:57,000
这铸币啥也不送啥都有问题

4907
04:02:57,066 --> 04:02:59,566
i credited with a lot of stuff in finance

4908
04:03:00,900 --> 04:03:04,300
and we'll come across his name again okay

4909
04:03:04,366 --> 04:03:07,266
this is all predicated now on the standard normal

4910
04:03:07,266 --> 04:03:09,433
so this is what you want to remember from stats

4911
04:03:09,500 --> 04:03:12,300
in the standard normal and they call it a standard normal

4912
04:03:12,300 --> 04:03:14,600
because what they did do you see down here

4913
04:03:14,833 --> 04:03:18,099
this these are all actual returns

4914
04:03:18,366 --> 04:03:19,566
i'm going to asset

4915
04:03:19,566 --> 04:03:20,899
let's say a stock okay

4916
04:03:21,633 --> 04:03:23,999
so its mean was 10 percent

4917
04:03:24,000 --> 04:03:26,166
but it had returns over the sample

4918
04:03:26,166 --> 04:03:29,266
period all the way down to 50 percent and all the way up to 70

4919
04:03:29,266 --> 04:03:30,699
percent kind of crazy i don't know

4920
04:03:30,700 --> 04:03:33,900
so let's just say that this was whatever it is who knows

4921
04:03:34,466 --> 04:03:35,233
what they do

4922
04:03:35,233 --> 04:03:38,666
is they standardize this by setting the mean to zero

4923
04:03:39,033 --> 04:03:40,633
and then looking at

4924
04:03:42,033 --> 04:03:44,166
these standard deviations

4925
04:03:44,166 --> 04:03:46,866
which we're going to show you which we calculate right

4926
04:03:47,433 --> 04:03:49,699
that go along with哎呀

4927
04:03:49,700 --> 04:03:50,666
我明白了

4928
04:03:50,666 --> 04:03:52,399
我是不明白其他人了

4929
04:03:53,433 --> 04:03:54,499
away from the mean

4930
04:03:54,833 --> 04:03:58,899
means that would go up 20 percent or down 20 percent

4931
04:03:59,300 --> 04:04:01,566
and the way to stand your normal我是这样的

4932
04:04:01,566 --> 04:04:04,233
我就得一天狠狠的看课

4933
04:04:04,233 --> 04:04:05,033
然后

4934
04:04:05,200 --> 04:04:08,600
花半一宿的时间让我自己反应过来

4935
04:04:08,600 --> 04:04:10,266
这一晚上什么都不能想

4936
04:04:10,266 --> 04:04:12,199
不能进行任何的娱乐活动

4937
04:04:12,200 --> 04:04:14,700
就包括听音乐看小说

4938
04:04:14,700 --> 04:04:16,900
然后晚上我就会梦到这些东西

4939
04:04:16,900 --> 04:04:18,233
第二天早上起来

4940
04:04:18,433 --> 04:04:20,433
昨天死活都理解不了的东西

4941
04:04:20,433 --> 04:04:22,866
然后第二天早上很多就明白了

4942
04:04:22,900 --> 04:04:25,866
我就需要一段时间就反应一下

4943
04:04:25,866 --> 04:04:26,899
反应太慢

4944
04:04:27,633 --> 04:04:29,599
from the Gaussian mathematics

4945
04:04:29,600 --> 04:04:32,300
it comes from was discovered a long time ago

4946
04:04:32,366 --> 04:04:35,766
that if the distribution looks normal like this about

4947
04:04:36,233 --> 04:04:38,366
68 percent world 68 percent

4948
04:04:38,666 --> 04:04:42,699
all the observations are going to fall within that one range

4949
04:04:43,100 --> 04:04:44,500
they're going to fall between

4950
04:04:44,666 --> 04:04:47,366
68 percent of time you're going to get a return

4951
04:04:47,366 --> 04:04:48,699
between negative 10

4952
04:04:49,100 --> 04:04:50,266
and thirty percent

4953
04:04:50,900 --> 04:04:54,500
so on average you're going to get 10 percent

4954
04:04:54,800 --> 04:04:58,966
that would be your expected return would be that 10 percent

4955
04:04:58,966 --> 04:05:00,033
which would just be

4956
04:05:00,200 --> 04:05:03,233
and they usually use the group letter mew for that the mew

4957
04:05:04,000 --> 04:05:04,433
哈哈哈

4958
04:05:04,433 --> 04:05:06,999
我说我刚自己写完想看看直播

4959
04:05:07,000 --> 04:05:08,266
吃个饭休息

4960
04:05:08,833 --> 04:05:10,466
but it's possible

4961
04:05:11,266 --> 04:05:13,766
国民大赛让你受苦了

4962
04:05:13,800 --> 04:05:15,200
take this further you could say

4963
04:05:15,200 --> 04:05:17,966
we'll suppose we went out two standard deviations

4964
04:05:17,966 --> 04:05:19,466
so we figure all this that

4965
04:05:19,866 --> 04:05:20,799
we figure out

4966
04:05:21,233 --> 04:05:26,633
this thing right and we get this this comes to some numbers

4967
04:05:26,633 --> 04:05:27,899
one standard deviation

4968
04:05:27,900 --> 04:05:30,033
two times that would be two three

4969
04:05:30,233 --> 04:05:32,699
怎么想都是主播的错举报了

4970
04:05:32,700 --> 04:05:34,900
那你能先给我点个关注吗

4971
04:05:34,900 --> 04:05:38,700
主播这么多天第一次直播上课

4972
04:05:38,700 --> 04:05:42,433
我还有很多精彩有趣的直播内容

4973
04:05:42,433 --> 04:05:44,466
不是直播这个的

4974
04:05:45,066 --> 04:05:48,033
我还有很多好玩的东西的

4975
04:05:50,166 --> 04:05:51,433
哎呀

4976
04:05:57,200 --> 04:05:58,800
and deviations right

4977
04:05:58,800 --> 04:06:02,100
and the way that this looks is he says if we did that

4978
04:06:02,433 --> 04:06:04,066
then we would get

4979
04:06:04,766 --> 04:06:06,433
between negative thirty

4980
04:06:06,433 --> 04:06:09,166
and positive fifty okay

4981
04:06:09,166 --> 04:06:12,166
and that we could be sure of getting something in that

4982
04:06:12,166 --> 04:06:14,199
range ninety five percent of time

4983
04:06:14,500 --> 04:06:15,100
but we're getting you know

4984
04:06:15,100 --> 04:06:18,566
we're getting pretty wild solo and if we can say you know

4985
04:06:18,566 --> 04:06:21,166
we're almost certain 99.7

4986
04:06:21,366 --> 04:06:23,633
that you're going to get between negative 50

4987
04:06:23,633 --> 04:06:25,899
while great and positive 70

4988
04:06:26,233 --> 04:06:28,299
so that's really a big range

4989
04:06:28,600 --> 04:06:31,000
but the thing is these values

4990
04:06:32,066 --> 04:06:34,233
this is the probability distribution

4991
04:06:34,366 --> 04:06:37,099
that a lot of basic finance is based on

4992
04:06:37,466 --> 04:06:38,766
because why because

4993
04:06:38,900 --> 04:06:39,766
if you take out

4994
04:06:39,766 --> 04:06:42,499
if you look at returns over a long period of time

4995
04:06:42,566 --> 04:06:44,166
they pretty much

4996
04:06:44,633 --> 04:06:46,866
will get you pretty close to a

4997
04:06:47,466 --> 04:06:48,966
standard normal distribution

4998
04:06:49,400 --> 04:06:51,700
but not always perfect like this

4999
04:06:52,000 --> 04:06:55,900
so some taunt now by the way what did we need to construct this

5000
04:06:55,900 --> 04:06:56,700
we needed

5001
04:06:57,300 --> 04:07:00,400
these two things right we needed the

5002
04:07:01,666 --> 04:07:05,099
the standard deviation which we got from the variance right

5003
04:07:05,366 --> 04:07:07,866
and we needed the mean

5004
04:07:08,500 --> 04:07:09,900
okay we needed like

5005
04:07:10,066 --> 04:07:11,599
the mean average

5006
04:07:11,666 --> 04:07:15,399
of the returns so we needed this thing

5007
04:07:15,800 --> 04:07:18,700
okay we needed the expected return and we needed the mean

5008
04:07:19,600 --> 04:07:21,633
which is usually the mean okay

5009
04:07:21,766 --> 04:07:28,266
so we needed to get this situation we needed

5010
04:07:28,400 --> 04:07:29,900
the mean or average

5011
04:07:30,300 --> 04:07:33,600
and we needed signal which was our standard debutation

5012
04:07:37,266 --> 04:07:38,899
the standard deviation okay

5013
04:07:39,800 --> 04:07:43,033
and the standard deviation okay so this is

5014
04:07:43,033 --> 04:07:45,466
this is one and this is two

5015
04:07:45,566 --> 04:07:49,233
so these are called the first two moments

5016
04:07:50,466 --> 04:07:52,566
of the distribution that's what

5017
04:07:52,566 --> 04:07:55,999
they're called an econometrics they're called the moments now

5018
04:07:56,500 --> 04:07:59,800
this you can see is perfectly symmetrical if we draw a line

5019
04:07:59,800 --> 04:08:03,366
like this 50 percent of the all the area

5020
04:08:03,366 --> 04:08:05,599
under this curve is to the right of that line

5021
04:08:05,600 --> 04:08:07,966
50 percent is all to the left of that curve

5022
04:08:08,300 --> 04:08:11,033
but it's not always nice and symmetric like this

5023
04:08:11,366 --> 04:08:17,099
sometimes it could be skewed to the positive or the negative

5024
04:08:17,266 --> 04:08:20,599
so the skew and the skew is calculated like

5025
04:08:20,600 --> 04:08:23,366
this the average times what's in here

5026
04:08:23,800 --> 04:08:26,633
okay notice that everything it looks a lot like

5027
04:08:27,100 --> 04:08:30,633
like variants except that it's cubed here

5028
04:08:31,033 --> 04:08:32,266
so that's called the

5029
04:08:32,366 --> 04:08:34,666
third moment and this guy here

5030
04:08:34,666 --> 04:08:37,599
cortosis i'll talk about a minute is almost the same thing

5031
04:08:37,600 --> 04:08:39,033
but the minus three here

5032
04:08:39,866 --> 04:08:42,833
so this is kind of notices take it to the fourth power

5033
04:08:42,866 --> 04:08:45,099
so this is called the fourth moment

5034
04:08:45,233 --> 04:08:49,499
so skew is a third moment cortosis is the fourth moment

5035
04:08:49,633 --> 04:08:51,299
so what do these things look like

5036
04:09:00,766 --> 04:09:01,433
well

5037
04:09:01,433 --> 04:09:02,766
here you go right here

5038
04:09:03,000 --> 04:09:07,400
so if you look at the normal one that's the gray right here

5039
04:09:07,466 --> 04:09:10,099
okay so notice that this is

5040
04:09:10,766 --> 04:09:13,166
the raider return comes it around there

5041
04:09:13,400 --> 04:09:16,366
okay so it should be zero so i guess it's here sorry

5042
04:09:16,433 --> 04:09:18,166
i can't draw very well

5043
04:09:18,266 --> 04:09:22,233
but zero would bring you right to there that's the normal one

5044
04:09:22,600 --> 04:09:25,566
but if it's possibly skewed okay

5045
04:09:25,800 --> 04:09:27,866
that means you can see it there is

5046
04:09:27,866 --> 04:09:29,766
you see where this thing starts to

5047
04:09:30,266 --> 04:09:34,399
it's about negative forty here it kind of moves to the right

5048
04:09:34,600 --> 04:09:37,100
so there's no我看这个东西

5049
04:09:37,100 --> 04:09:39,200
我觉得我心肌炎要发作了

5050
04:09:39,200 --> 04:09:41,766
我本来以为我打疫苗后遗症都好了

5051
04:09:42,300 --> 04:09:43,800
but the whole mass is

5052
04:09:44,266 --> 04:09:46,099
probability mass to the right

5053
04:09:46,166 --> 04:09:47,899
or in the blue case

5054
04:09:48,033 --> 04:09:51,433
there's more probability to the left so there's more

5055
04:09:51,966 --> 04:09:54,566
probability mass on one side or the other

5056
04:09:55,033 --> 04:09:58,166
okay and that tells you how far away

5057
04:09:58,500 --> 04:10:02,800
this is from the standard normal but skewness

5058
04:10:03,466 --> 04:10:06,066
is a measure therefore

5059
04:10:07,433 --> 04:10:09,799
今天玩不玩手机都睡不着

5060
04:10:09,800 --> 04:10:10,800
你玩你玩反盖

5061
04:10:10,800 --> 04:10:15,066
normal something is normal distribution is so a normality

5062
04:10:17,066 --> 04:10:20,766
okay it is a measure of normality because it's telling you

5063
04:10:20,966 --> 04:10:23,999
you know exactly how normal something is

5064
04:10:24,666 --> 04:10:25,466
okay

5065
04:10:26,266 --> 04:10:28,266
and in the case of cortosis

5066
04:10:28,266 --> 04:10:30,099
they're getting an example here where

5067
04:10:30,166 --> 04:10:34,833
the you know we're right here but you see how the blue line

5068
04:10:34,833 --> 04:10:36,966
the regular one caught at Peters out

5069
04:10:37,633 --> 04:10:38,566
sorry the the

5070
04:10:39,633 --> 04:10:40,699
the blue line is

5071
04:10:41,066 --> 04:10:45,033
the cartosis line the grey line is normal it kind of just

5072
04:10:45,233 --> 04:10:48,566
goes asymptomic to the x axis here but here

5073
04:10:49,500 --> 04:10:50,666
over here where there's like

5074
04:10:50,833 --> 04:10:53,499
three or four standard deviations away from the mean

5075
04:10:53,566 --> 04:10:56,033
there's still a lot of probability mass

5076
04:10:56,500 --> 04:10:58,366
we don't care so much about this

5077
04:10:58,600 --> 04:11:00,633
but what we do care is down here

5078
04:11:01,300 --> 04:11:03,300
because this is your black swan event

5079
04:11:03,966 --> 04:11:06,199
it's not very likely any of this happens

5080
04:11:06,233 --> 04:11:07,633
this could be like three standard

5081
04:11:07,633 --> 04:11:09,166
dba主播我也觉得

5082
04:11:09,233 --> 04:11:10,299
我应该直接

5083
04:11:10,766 --> 04:11:12,499
对着题库然后就

5084
04:11:12,700 --> 04:11:14,200
又做题又做

5085
04:11:20,433 --> 04:11:23,866
题然后我之前都是一直PPT带笔记

5086
04:11:23,866 --> 04:11:27,266
然后就对着题库硬做了

5087
04:11:27,433 --> 04:11:31,599
但是我就觉得这么做完之后就整个人

5088
04:11:31,800 --> 04:11:34,066
整个人都晕晕乎乎的

5089
04:11:34,066 --> 04:11:37,566
也不说不清是会的还是没会

5090
04:11:41,033 --> 04:11:41,833
哎

5091
04:11:43,066 --> 04:11:46,233
没事这节反正要听完了让我听完吧

5092
04:11:48,066 --> 04:11:48,866
okay

5093
04:11:49,666 --> 04:11:53,399
so that's what they mean by kertosis how fat those tails are

5094
04:11:53,633 --> 04:11:54,799
so how fat how

5095
04:11:55,066 --> 04:11:57,099
how risky is it you know

5096
04:11:57,400 --> 04:12:00,300
that if something really bad happens that

5097
04:12:00,666 --> 04:12:03,233
we have the financial crisis or something like that

5098
04:12:03,600 --> 04:12:06,800
or a long term capital management these were two big ones

5099
04:12:06,866 --> 04:12:07,433
then you know

5100
04:12:07,433 --> 04:12:10,833
you get something that happens that black swan swims into the

5101
04:12:10,966 --> 04:12:13,033
negative part of the curve but the curve

5102
04:12:13,033 --> 04:12:14,966
but it's once the swan gets in there

5103
04:12:14,966 --> 04:12:17,299
there's a lot of probability nuts in there

5104
04:12:17,500 --> 04:12:19,500
for a lot of damage to be done

5105
04:12:20,500 --> 04:12:22,066
so what we have

5106
04:12:22,566 --> 04:12:23,766
that relates to that are

5107
04:12:23,766 --> 04:12:27,466
two measures called value at risk and expected shortfall

5108
04:12:27,466 --> 04:12:29,666
and sometimes this one but these two

5109
04:12:29,666 --> 04:12:31,566
are the big ones okay

5110
04:12:31,866 --> 04:12:32,899
so this is a loss

5111
04:12:32,900 --> 04:12:35,866
that would be occurred in the event of an extreme and verse

5112
04:12:35,866 --> 04:12:36,799
price change

5113
04:12:36,800 --> 04:12:37,900
with some given

5114
04:12:38,166 --> 04:12:40,199
very low probability so

5115
04:12:40,633 --> 04:12:43,166
usually it's at least three standard deviations out

5116
04:12:43,366 --> 04:12:45,899
so it's at the bottom end of the curve there

5117
04:12:46,400 --> 04:12:50,033
and so we'd say if we get a raider return

5118
04:12:50,400 --> 04:12:53,400
that our var might be right here

5119
04:12:53,400 --> 04:12:56,800
so that says that most we could lose

5120
04:12:57,300 --> 04:12:59,100
is this amount that say it's minus

5121
04:12:59,100 --> 04:13:01,700
it's up being minus 10 million bucks

5122
04:13:02,200 --> 04:13:03,000
okay

5123
04:13:03,500 --> 04:13:09,433
it says minus on a bad day you could get 10 million or less

5124
04:13:10,366 --> 04:13:12,399
okay it doesn't tell you how much

5125
04:13:12,400 --> 04:13:16,100
it just tells you that that is the that is the value

5126
04:13:16,766 --> 04:13:21,599
that is the the losses occurred in case you have

5127
04:13:22,033 --> 04:13:24,099
you hit a certain level

5128
04:13:24,466 --> 04:13:27,499
of probability a very low level of probability

5129
04:13:27,600 --> 04:13:28,966
but there is a measure

5130
04:13:30,400 --> 04:13:35,100
of value there that says at that particular low level

5131
04:13:35,100 --> 04:13:37,866
maybe that's a one percent chance okay

5132
04:13:38,633 --> 04:13:40,999
if that value is ten million

5133
04:13:41,000 --> 04:13:44,066
but what if you go inside that in here

5134
04:13:44,766 --> 04:13:46,199
this just tells you to cut off

5135
04:13:46,200 --> 04:13:50,266
it doesn't tell you that you're really excited that becomes

5136
04:13:50,400 --> 04:13:53,000
the expected shorter fall i'm sorry the phone's off

5137
04:13:53,000 --> 04:13:54,033
i'm just gonna let it break

5138
04:13:54,700 --> 04:13:58,966
这怎么这这老是抢到一半去接电话

5139
04:13:58,966 --> 04:14:00,433
怎么还有这种事情

5140
04:14:01,633 --> 04:14:03,166
好逆天啊

5141
04:14:05,400 --> 04:14:06,466
哎呀

5142
04:14:13,833 --> 04:14:14,833
决绝子

5143
04:14:15,566 --> 04:14:17,366
令我看到无语

5144
04:14:20,366 --> 04:14:26,266
风险价值预期短切合下篇的标准差

5145
04:14:28,166 --> 04:14:30,699
wasn't expecting anything okay

5146
04:14:32,400 --> 04:14:33,466
这不是直播

5147
04:14:33,800 --> 04:14:34,833
这不是直播

5148
04:14:34,866 --> 04:14:36,066
但是他他录播

5149
04:14:36,066 --> 04:14:39,199
他把他他接电话的这一块录起来

5150
04:14:39,866 --> 04:14:41,599
他哈哈哈

5151
04:14:42,566 --> 04:14:44,699
我有点小小的无语

5152
04:14:49,200 --> 04:14:51,700
还有上课上了1万火箭响很正常

5153
04:14:51,700 --> 04:14:53,766
主播别说话让我听听可好

5154
04:14:53,800 --> 04:14:56,700
it tells you that once you get inside there

5155
04:14:58,366 --> 04:14:59,499
here it goes

5156
04:15:01,300 --> 04:15:02,666
okay that was very

5157
04:15:02,766 --> 04:15:03,466
much

5158
04:15:03,466 --> 04:15:08,799
i don't

5159
04:15:13,666 --> 04:15:14,466
okay

5160
04:15:16,200 --> 04:15:18,000
yeah okay well i'll get back to you

5161
04:15:18,466 --> 04:15:22,366
sorry hope that guys so what does the expected short fall mean

5162
04:15:23,166 --> 04:15:25,499
well the expected short fall means

5163
04:15:27,100 --> 04:15:27,900
that

5164
04:15:28,366 --> 04:15:31,599
here's our var that is the cutoff point

5165
04:15:31,766 --> 04:15:33,399
once we get in here though

5166
04:15:33,500 --> 04:15:36,700
there might be a distribution inside there

5167
04:15:36,900 --> 04:15:39,200
that might look like this or something

5168
04:15:39,700 --> 04:15:41,500
so then we'd have to go inside say okay

5169
04:15:41,500 --> 04:15:43,166
once you know what这玩意

5170
04:15:43,700 --> 04:15:46,700
算是中文我感觉我也未必听得懂

5171
04:15:47,300 --> 04:15:49,700
对啊他怎么不剪掉呢

5172
04:15:50,466 --> 04:15:53,499
他为啥要把打电话的内容放出来

5173
04:15:55,466 --> 04:15:56,633
哈哈哈

5174
04:15:56,633 --> 04:15:57,999
啊啊

5175
04:15:58,766 --> 04:16:00,966
楼上好香他们在做饭了

5176
04:16:00,966 --> 04:16:02,566
我不知道他们在做什么东西

5177
04:16:02,566 --> 04:16:03,366
吃

5178
04:16:03,633 --> 04:16:04,299
all right

5179
04:16:04,300 --> 04:16:07,400
now i want to do just a couple of little things here this is

5180
04:16:07,400 --> 04:16:08,566
and we'll wrap this up

5181
04:16:08,766 --> 04:16:11,399
so for a continuously compounded annual raider

5182
04:16:11,400 --> 04:16:13,466
each turn on a stop that is normally

5183
04:16:13,966 --> 04:16:16,199
distributed with a mean of twenty five percent

5184
04:16:16,200 --> 04:16:16,833
instead of the

5185
04:16:16,833 --> 04:16:17,899
nation of thirty percent

5186
04:16:17,900 --> 04:16:19,966
what is the ninety five percent probability

5187
04:16:19,966 --> 04:16:20,766
or ninety five point

5188
04:16:20,766 --> 04:16:22,433
five probability confidence

5189
04:16:22,633 --> 04:16:26,166
we would expect its actual return in any particular year

5190
04:16:26,366 --> 04:16:27,699
to be between

5191
04:16:29,466 --> 04:16:32,633
啊哒哒哒哒哒

5192
04:16:36,366 --> 04:16:39,799
what two values okay this is the kind of thing now

5193
04:16:40,033 --> 04:16:42,299
this is what probability is this

5194
04:16:42,633 --> 04:16:45,499
and abnormal there's two standard deviations

5195
04:16:45,833 --> 04:16:47,766
so let's go to

5196
04:16:48,266 --> 04:16:50,299
this guy here alright

5197
04:16:50,300 --> 04:16:54,100
so you can see that that probability of ninety five point

5198
04:16:54,100 --> 04:16:57,400
five percent which is basically this guy

5199
04:16:57,900 --> 04:17:00,833
alright is two standard nations away

5200
04:17:01,633 --> 04:17:04,466
so when we go back to the question here

5201
04:17:06,100 --> 04:17:09,233
and we say two standard deviations of the mean

5202
04:17:09,566 --> 04:17:11,799
that is between 41 and

5203
04:17:11,866 --> 04:17:14,966
91 percent who would simply add and subtract two

5204
04:17:14,966 --> 04:17:18,199
standard deviations to and from the mean okay

5205
04:17:19,000 --> 04:17:19,800
so

5206
04:17:20,300 --> 04:17:21,866
we have a probability

5207
04:17:22,566 --> 04:17:25,799
that we're given with probability what is the value

5208
04:17:25,900 --> 04:17:26,700
of

5209
04:17:27,033 --> 04:17:27,799
distributed built

5210
04:17:27,800 --> 04:17:30,800
that will fall within two standard it would be between

5211
04:17:31,000 --> 04:17:34,633
minus 41 percent okay and

5212
04:17:36,766 --> 04:17:39,499
91 percent and the reason for that is

5213
04:17:40,700 --> 04:17:42,466
because we have

5214
04:17:43,666 --> 04:17:48,633
it has a mean of 25 percent and a standard deviation of 33

5215
04:17:49,300 --> 04:17:50,300
so 33

5216
04:17:51,100 --> 04:17:51,900
okay

5217
04:17:53,033 --> 04:17:54,666
times two is 66

5218
04:17:55,633 --> 04:17:59,033
okay that's two standard deviations up plus the men is 25

5219
04:17:59,233 --> 04:18:00,499
and that gives you 91

5220
04:18:01,066 --> 04:18:06,233
okay so that's 91 and two standard deviations down okay

5221
04:18:06,466 --> 04:18:07,599
so the me

5222
04:18:08,833 --> 04:18:13,999
that would be minus 66 and plus 25

5223
04:18:14,433 --> 04:18:15,599
and that gives you

5224
04:18:16,233 --> 04:18:17,699
minus 41

5225
04:18:18,700 --> 04:18:20,200
okay so that's all you do

5226
04:18:21,366 --> 04:18:24,433
and what about this for the holding period this is a bond now

5227
04:18:24,433 --> 04:18:26,066
that has been offered a nominal

5228
04:18:26,400 --> 04:18:28,766
holding period return this is a crazy example

5229
04:18:28,766 --> 04:18:31,166
but let's just say 86 percent per year

5230
04:18:31,166 --> 04:18:33,433
but inflation was 76 percent year

5231
04:18:33,433 --> 04:18:34,799
this is obviously when i was crazy

5232
04:18:34,800 --> 04:18:36,500
inflation countries that happens from time

5233
04:18:36,500 --> 04:18:39,900
to time what's the real holding power holding

5234
04:18:40,833 --> 04:18:45,033
period return if we do this short one that we almost always use

5235
04:18:45,266 --> 04:18:47,399
right in when we're talking in the classroom and stuff

5236
04:18:47,400 --> 04:18:49,033
like that or even in the real world

5237
04:18:49,166 --> 04:18:50,466
look at what we get

5238
04:18:51,033 --> 04:18:55,433
we get ten percent obviously we could tell that right away right

5239
04:18:56,466 --> 04:19:00,066
86 minus 76 but when we do it with the full fisher

5240
04:19:00,566 --> 04:19:04,699
we get 5.68 that's a big difference

5241
04:19:05,433 --> 04:19:10,366
so why is it so why is it so obvious this approximation wrong

5242
04:19:10,800 --> 04:19:16,300
no is just that the rated inflation was crazy it was 76 percent

5243
04:19:17,066 --> 04:19:17,866
okay

5244
04:19:18,033 --> 04:19:22,099
so that's what i'm saying this is the proper way to do it always

5245
04:19:22,433 --> 04:19:25,666
but the but a lot of people just use the approximation

5246
04:19:30,400 --> 04:19:33,400
好点学生就来这上网课

5247
04:19:34,633 --> 04:19:38,366
好呀我最近这几天可能后半夜

5248
04:19:38,433 --> 04:19:40,633
都会有这种环节

5249
04:19:42,300 --> 04:19:44,500
but when inflation is really hard

5250
04:19:44,866 --> 04:19:48,999
then it doesn't work大家阖家欢乐亲戚团圆

5251
04:19:49,766 --> 04:19:50,566
这个

5252
04:19:51,100 --> 04:19:53,433
万事俱备只欠东风

5253
04:19:53,433 --> 04:19:57,999
而米耶密亚我半夜5点钟4点

5254
04:19:58,666 --> 04:20:00,199
在这上听不懂

5255
04:20:00,200 --> 04:20:00,833
Benchmark

5256
04:20:00,833 --> 04:20:03,433
you could probably you can use the approximation almost

5257
04:20:03,433 --> 04:20:05,466
always when things are about ten percent

5258
04:20:05,466 --> 04:20:08,433
那个正态应该对我们是最不太重要

5259
04:20:08,433 --> 04:20:10,866
so there's an example of just again

5260
04:20:10,866 --> 04:20:13,666
there's how we would do this probably distribution

5261
04:20:15,433 --> 04:20:17,433
这YTM是个啥东西啊

5262
04:20:19,233 --> 04:20:20,199
家人们

5263
04:20:20,200 --> 04:20:23,100
我不知道哪一哪什么地方做错了

5264
04:20:23,100 --> 04:20:26,233
我也不知道什么地方错过了

5265
04:20:26,500 --> 04:20:27,633
怎么这就

5266
04:20:46,700 --> 04:20:51,200
for a one year holding period of a 30 year treasury okay so

5267
04:20:51,200 --> 04:20:54,800
there's the probability boom a normal goal for recession

5268
04:20:55,000 --> 04:20:58,600
the ultimaturity would change here okay

5269
04:20:58,766 --> 04:20:59,666
the price would change

5270
04:20:59,666 --> 04:21:01,066
because people would sell or buy

5271
04:21:01,066 --> 04:21:03,233
this bond depending on what was going on

5272
04:21:03,566 --> 04:21:06,599
so in a yield in a boom they're going to they're

5273
04:21:06,900 --> 04:21:09,466
they're going to sell the bog so it's price it's这

5274
04:21:09,633 --> 04:21:10,799
是点了value

5275
04:21:10,800 --> 04:21:12,633
a hundred if it's normal

5276
04:21:12,666 --> 04:21:14,899
it's gonna be a hundred if it's a recession

5277
04:21:15,466 --> 04:21:16,266
okay

5278
04:21:16,700 --> 04:21:18,433
people gonna people gonna sell it

5279
04:21:18,433 --> 04:21:19,433
咋了

5280
04:21:20,433 --> 04:21:21,866
我没等一会

5281
04:21:21,866 --> 04:21:23,099
稍等一下

5282
04:21:32,233 --> 04:21:33,999
啊他们真好

5283
04:21:34,000 --> 04:21:37,433
他们做了饭还带了我的

5284
04:21:38,700 --> 04:21:42,633
而我在地下室哭哭唧唧的还学不明白

5285
04:21:42,633 --> 04:21:43,999
我好开心

5286
04:21:44,266 --> 04:21:46,366
here they're gonna buy it here so the price goes up

5287
04:21:46,366 --> 04:21:49,966
等下听完了我先上楼吃饭了家人

5288
04:21:50,233 --> 04:21:51,366
gain on it here

5289
04:21:51,666 --> 04:21:53,233
remember this is a cupon bond

5290
04:21:53,233 --> 04:21:56,633
they're telling us so it's a eight percent cupon bond of ours

5291
04:21:57,033 --> 04:21:58,499
the cupon never changes

5292
04:21:58,600 --> 04:22:00,200
so ours get the cupons

5293
04:22:00,466 --> 04:22:01,033
of the

5294
04:22:01,033 --> 04:22:04,399
had or subtractor幸好他们直接叫我名字

5295
04:22:04,500 --> 04:22:05,433
哈哈哈

5296
04:22:05,833 --> 04:22:07,299
你要不要中文版交代

5297
04:22:07,300 --> 04:22:08,800
我要我要

5298
04:22:09,900 --> 04:22:13,566
return but just show you now with three different scenarios

5299
04:22:14,600 --> 04:22:15,500
and this last

5300
04:22:16,066 --> 04:22:19,233
is just again this is just a data set最后没用了

5301
04:22:19,233 --> 04:22:21,766
这是1,900到2015没用了

5302
04:22:21,766 --> 04:22:23,266
这这最后这个没用

5303
04:22:23,266 --> 04:22:24,599
其实还有第二趟呢

5304
04:22:24,600 --> 04:22:27,266
现在暂时间做不了这个题

5305
04:22:27,266 --> 04:22:29,033
我还得再看第二趟

5306
04:22:29,300 --> 04:22:31,500
那我打字弹幕上发你

5307
04:22:31,500 --> 04:22:33,266
你可以私信给我

5308
04:22:33,300 --> 04:22:35,566
你可以发私信给我

5309
04:22:35,566 --> 04:22:36,799
哈哈哈

5310
04:22:37,466 --> 04:22:39,366
啊感谢一下礼物

5311
04:22:39,366 --> 04:22:42,299
谢谢大家今天晚上陪我一起坐牢上课

5312
04:22:42,300 --> 04:22:44,266
谢谢谢谢谢谢大伙的红

5313
04:22:44,266 --> 04:22:50,099
包啊谢谢那个MHMCGJ的

5314
04:22:51,300 --> 04:22:53,800
见长总有人白赖也有见长

5315
04:22:53,800 --> 04:22:54,833
谢谢你谢谢你

5316
04:22:54,833 --> 04:22:55,833
在直播上课

5317
04:22:55,833 --> 04:22:57,966
是啊谢谢咕噜咕噜的礼物

5318
04:22:57,966 --> 04:22:59,399
谢谢皇家骑士的礼物

5319
04:22:59,400 --> 04:23:02,433
谢谢香草谢谢亲一下谢谢3时间

5320
04:23:02,466 --> 04:23:03,999
谢谢所有的人呢

5321
04:23:04,066 --> 04:23:06,433
阿里阿豆谢谢谢谢

5322
04:23:07,000 --> 04:23:09,566
谢谢大家晚上今天跟我抢红包

5323
04:23:09,566 --> 04:23:10,699
跟我聊天啊

5324
04:23:10,700 --> 04:23:13,633
我我一点都不寂寞我非常的快乐

5325
04:23:13,633 --> 04:23:14,666
哈哈哈

5326
04:23:16,233 --> 04:23:20,299
我要先下播了我我再不下播我要改了

5327
04:23:20,366 --> 04:23:22,866
看你学习真是太开心了

5328
04:23:23,633 --> 04:23:25,233
搞不好明天

5329
04:23:25,233 --> 04:23:29,366
明天你的早上你还能再看到我学习

5330
04:23:31,233 --> 04:23:33,666
可能你还能再看到我学习

5331
04:23:35,666 --> 04:23:39,066
听的我好痛苦啊这啥也没学进去啊

5332
04:23:39,066 --> 04:23:42,566
下播再整理整理再整理整理再做做题

5333
04:23:42,566 --> 04:23:46,366
然后我争取这个一天看两张

5334
04:23:46,633 --> 04:23:48,433
争取一天看两张

5335
04:23:48,433 --> 04:23:49,633
考试加油

5336
04:23:51,433 --> 04:23:53,199
叫你赚钱坐牢去吧

5337
04:23:53,200 --> 04:23:54,833
怎么干嘛都能坐牢呀

5338
04:23:54,833 --> 04:23:57,233
直播也能坐牢玩游戏也能坐牢

5339
04:23:57,266 --> 04:23:58,499
学习也能坐牢

5340
04:24:08,433 --> 04:24:10,033
拜拜家人们

5341
04:24:10,033 --> 04:24:11,099
争取不死

5342
04:24:11,100 --> 04:24:12,433
哈哈哈

5343
04:24:12,433 --> 04:24:13,766
争取不死

5344
04:24:15,666 --> 04:24:17,466
以后我一会私信发你

5345
04:24:17,466 --> 04:24:18,266
谢谢你啊

5346
04:24:18,266 --> 04:24:19,799
不玩手机都睡不着

5347
04:24:19,800 --> 04:24:21,966
这对主播真的很重要

5348
04:24:23,466 --> 04:24:28,566
对了MHFCG就可以进一下店长群

5349
04:24:28,566 --> 04:24:30,233
在私信里面

5350
04:24:31,433 --> 04:24:33,899
但是谢谢你们我因为我要先吃饭了

5351
04:24:33,900 --> 04:24:36,166
我先放个姐姐然后去吃饭了

5352
04:24:36,166 --> 04:24:39,666
因为不吃饭的话是不会得到幸福的

5353
04:24:39,666 --> 04:24:40,599
家人们

5354
04:24:41,433 --> 04:24:43,866
这一天确实没咋吃

5355
04:24:43,866 --> 04:24:46,299
饿饿886 拜拜呀

5356
04:24:46,800 --> 04:24:49,566
王老师就是你拯救的主播吗

5357
04:24:49,866 --> 04:24:51,866
两位王老师好吧

5358
04:24:54,866 --> 04:24:56,699
谢谢大伙谢谢大伙

5359
04:24:57,600 --> 04:25:01,700
哄的你哄的你哄的你哄的你爱你个的

5360
04:25:02,466 --> 04:25:04,099
谢谢谢谢

5361
04:25:13,900 --> 04:25:15,800
吃点东西补补脑吃

5362
04:25:22,100 --> 04:25:26,366
一不小心成了你的禽兽

5363
04:25:26,433 --> 04:25:27,633
悲伤

5364
04:25:29,900 --> 04:25:34,266
电话约在从前约会的地方

5365
04:25:34,266 --> 04:25:38,233
要陪你唱歌吃饭我结账

5366
04:25:39,000 --> 04:25:44,766
保持优良习惯哎呀呀

5367
04:25:46,100 --> 04:25:51,566
你说最近过的还算幸福美满

5368
04:25:54,000 --> 04:25:56,500
喝了几杯成了

5369
04:25:56,600 --> 04:25:57,700
才8点

5370
04:25:58,466 --> 04:26:00,966
4点半了还8点

5371
04:26:01,166 --> 04:26:03,666
你的居心在哪里

5372
04:26:04,000 --> 04:26:06,233
不知什么立场

5373
04:26:06,233 --> 04:26:10,366
听你说话看你哭湿头发

5374
04:26:10,900 --> 04:26:14,800
我得到了惩罚

5375
04:26:17,000 --> 04:26:20,833
戒了烟我不习惯

5376
04:26:20,900 --> 04:26:24,633
没有你我怎么办

5377
04:26:24,966 --> 04:26:28,566
3年零一个礼拜

5378
04:26:28,966 --> 04:26:32,766
才学会怎么忍耐

5379
04:26:32,900 --> 04:26:36,966
你给过我的伤害

5380
04:26:36,966 --> 04:26:40,899
是没有一句责怪

5381
04:26:40,900 --> 04:26:44,900
戒了烟染上悲伤

5382
04:26:44,900 --> 04:26:47,833
我也不想

5383
04:27:02,033 --> 04:27:07,599
你说最近过的还算幸福美满

5384
04:27:09,833 --> 04:27:15,833
喝了几杯唱了几段你却哭了

5385
04:27:17,966 --> 04:27:22,233
想去安慰却不知什么立场

5386
04:27:22,266 --> 04:27:30,799
听你说话看你哭湿头发我得到了惩罚

5387
04:27:33,000 --> 04:27:39,966
戒了烟我不习惯哦耶耶我怎么

5388
04:27:39,966 --> 04:27:41,266
我哪有脚本呢

5389
04:27:41,266 --> 04:27:42,766
我还以为能通宵

5390
04:27:42,900 --> 04:27:44,600
我倒是可以通宵的

5391
04:27:44,600 --> 04:27:48,966
但是我我吃完饭之后稍微歇一歇

5392
04:27:49,300 --> 04:27:51,966
如果如果你们早上还在的话

5393
04:27:51,966 --> 04:27:54,266
可能早上还会看到我

5394
04:27:56,033 --> 04:27:59,699
烟烟带给我最大的感受就是亲近自然

5395
04:27:59,700 --> 04:28:03,000
不像其他人命那样聪明过头

5396
04:28:03,233 --> 04:28:06,366
也不像其他人命那样高不可攀

5397
04:28:06,433 --> 04:28:08,366
而是在你身边

5398
04:28:08,866 --> 04:28:11,266
笨笨咔咔的一只

5399
04:28:12,166 --> 04:28:13,033
猫

5400
04:28:15,500 --> 04:28:16,800
哎呀

5401
04:28:18,366 --> 04:28:21,399
笨蛋蛋耶耶笨蛋蛋

5402
04:28:29,033 --> 04:28:31,266
大概7点别上闹钟了

5403
04:28:31,266 --> 04:28:33,499
我建议你们好好睡觉

5404
04:28:33,500 --> 04:28:36,400
反正都是看我白让不要定闹钟

5405
04:28:36,866 --> 04:28:39,299
大家都已经放年假了就好

5406
04:28:39,300 --> 04:28:40,633
好好休息嘛

5407
04:28:41,033 --> 04:28:43,066
没有说我笨是我自己说的

5408
04:28:44,233 --> 04:28:46,066
是我自己说的

5409
04:28:46,200 --> 04:28:47,400
又不是你说的

5410
04:28:47,400 --> 04:28:50,200
早上好严先生吃早饭了

5411
04:28:50,200 --> 04:28:52,666
会怎么忍耐

5412
04:28:53,000 --> 04:28:56,900
你给过我的伤害

5413
04:28:56,900 --> 04:29:01,166
是没有一句责怪

5414
04:29:05,000 --> 04:29:09,033
戒了烟染上悲伤

5415
04:29:09,033 --> 04:29:11,999
我也不想